alternatehistory.com

It's often been said that for Japan in the 1940's, the only winning move was not to play, ie they had little to gain from entering WW2, and everything to lose. At the same time, the Second Sino-Japanese War, their oppressive grip on Manchuria and Korea, not to mention their bugfuck crazy militarist leadership, in some ways forced their hand (note: I am not saying the Japanese were justified in launching the Pacific War, merely saying that they had dug themselves into a hole, with no means of escaping besides choosing to keep digging).

Now, let's say that in a fit of sanity, the Japanese leadership decides that the only winning move really is not to play. Now, since they've decided not to go big or go home (that is, seize the European and American colonies in Southeast Asia and go full colonial power), what are their options? Can they extricate themselves from China and get the sanctions lifted? Can they at least force a stalemate? Is any "sane" Japanese decision doomed from the start?
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