Random idea popped into my head. With the PoD being a Russian victory in the Russo-Japanese War, is it possible that Japan, humiliated and (I would assume) side-lined by Anglo-Russian reproachment over the growing German/Austro-Hungarian threat, would side with the Central Powers? Could Japanese naval presence challenge the balance of power at sea?
WI: Japan sides with Central Powers
- Thread starter Scherzo
- Start date
There can be some questions made as to the political arrangements(Japan in 1914 isn't the Japan of 1940, they're not suicidal, not to mention if there are blow-back effects on other powers), but naval-wise it is rather unlikely that Japan's presence on the Central Power side would make a major difference. If Japan loses the war with Russia then it will take heavy losses to its navy, and greater economic troubles - post-war it had major debts, and these would be amplified in the event of a Russian victory. They only had a few dreadnoughts, and thus the battle in the region could be fought with pre-dreadnoughts, which the Entente has plenty of - and thus their main battle line vis a vis the European Central Powers is unaffected. They would make a splash at first I'm sure, but they would get rolled eventually by large forces of Allied naval units, and subsequently blockaded. Which is the end for Japan.
I was thinking more would the extra units required to be stationed in East Asia create more opportunities for a German High Seas breakout?
On the Asian side of things, how about Sino-Japanese reproachment in the face of Western Imperialism? (Japans inevitable mainland ambitions put aside for the moment) Could Japan have the capacity to deploy forces to China in helping other throw the Entente aligned government?
On the Asian side of things, how about Sino-Japanese reproachment in the face of Western Imperialism? (Japans inevitable mainland ambitions put aside for the moment) Could Japan have the capacity to deploy forces to China in helping other throw the Entente aligned government?
I'm not saying they sortie against each other, I'm just suggesting that tying down assets to Singapore and HK would reduce the Home Fleets capacity to keep the High Seas Fleet from sortieing.
(Though I did suggest a Sino-Japanese anti-western alliance, but that's more for shits and giggles than my main points)
Could the Japanese fleet perhaps merchant raid against the British?
(Though I did suggest a Sino-Japanese anti-western alliance, but that's more for shits and giggles than my main points)
Could the Japanese fleet perhaps merchant raid against the British?
Japan only has 2 dreadnoughts and 1 battlecruiser in 1914 - and if the war goes sufficiently worse for them they might have trouble even getting those, with the economic fall out. They do have pre-dreadnoughts/semi-dreadnoughts of around 10 or so in number, and some semi-battlecruisers, around 4. The Entente deployed 1 battleship, 3 battlecruisers, and 28 pre-dreadnoughts at Gallipoli alone. Since Japan's fleet is primarily pre-dreadnought ships, there doesn't need to be a major diversion of modern dreadnoughts and battlecruisers to face them, which preserves strength against the Germans and Austrians in Europe. The British and the French have plenty of pre-dreadnoughts that they can man and sail against the Japanese, with a scattering of dreadnoughts that aren't needed otherwise. Lighter ships meanwhile should exist in sufficient quantities from the Entente to engage Japanese commerce and hunt down Japanese commerce raiders.
Japan's commerce is even more vulnerable than the British too, since the Japanese can only strike against a portion of it.
What if the loss in 1905 leads to the Nationalist craziness of the 20s happening sooner, with a regional naval arms race? Perhaps there's more cooperation between Japan and the US (who, if I remember correctly, was not particularly pro-entente when the war broke out). Not saying a US Japanese alliance, but rather increased trade and cooperation in penetrating the Chinese Market.
It would be hard to say. In OTL the Russo-Japanese War resulted in the Anglo-Japanese Alliance of 1905. Russia was always regard as a possible threat to the crown Jewel India. I am not sure that a Russian Victory would result in a continuation to the tilt toward France and Russia that Happen in OTL.
Perhaps Japan might have allied with the Central Powers and if it did that would have meant more capital ships being required in the Pacific. There would have been pressure from Australia and New Zealand.
Of course that might have also meant more pressure to build the Royal Navy even larger..If the navy didn't expand then with the outbreak of war there would have been a question as to whether the RN could maintain a superiority over the High Sea Fleet
Britain might have been less likely to go to war.
Perhaps Japan might have allied with the Central Powers and if it did that would have meant more capital ships being required in the Pacific. There would have been pressure from Australia and New Zealand.
Of course that might have also meant more pressure to build the Royal Navy even larger..If the navy didn't expand then with the outbreak of war there would have been a question as to whether the RN could maintain a superiority over the High Sea Fleet
Britain might have been less likely to go to war.
I dislike talking about nations as if they had group souls. Let's talk about some of the individuals (wow what a concept)
Like Kato Takaaki, the Japanese foreign minister at the beginning of WWI, a veritable poster boy for Anglohilia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katō_Takaaki
And Prime Minister Okuma was almost as bad.
Perhaps if you avoid the Siemens-Vickers scandal (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siemens_scandal) Yamamoto Gonnohyoe would still be PM (I say perhaps as his corrupt administration was a scandal waiting to happen) and there is is a bare wisp of an argument that the genro which has some pro-German sympathy might browbeat him into an alliance with the CP.
Like Kato Takaaki, the Japanese foreign minister at the beginning of WWI, a veritable poster boy for Anglohilia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katō_Takaaki
And Prime Minister Okuma was almost as bad.
Perhaps if you avoid the Siemens-Vickers scandal (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siemens_scandal) Yamamoto Gonnohyoe would still be PM (I say perhaps as his corrupt administration was a scandal waiting to happen) and there is is a bare wisp of an argument that the genro which has some pro-German sympathy might browbeat him into an alliance with the CP.
Von Spee's position in Tsingtao is also significantly better than IOTL. It is possible that if German-Japanese relations are better the East Asia squadron will be even stronger. One Emden was bad enough. Now imagine a dozen, or more.
Hunting down commerce raiders is a lot harder than it sounds. Churchill said in The World Crisis the Admiralty had a map of the Pacific that was 300 square feet. On that map the head of a pin represented what could be seen from the mast of a ship on a clear day. The Emden was only caught by dumb luck on the part of the Allies.
Not a chance. Japan's refusal to recognize the "Open Door Policy" against China, not to mention the bitter racism that the US held for Japan, to the point of severely limiting immigration from Japan for decades and disadvantaging existing Japanese nationals in the USA is not going to be conducive to bettering relations. Japan and the USA directly opposed one another on key issues regarding China (in a nutshell, the USA wanted everyone to be able to trade with China and Japan wanted to carved chunks off it for it's own Empire), Japan joining the Central Powers and attempting to militarily expand it's influence in China and South East Asia against British and French territory is going to bring the USA into the Entente faster.
BlondieBC
Banned
Yes, but they may well not do it for various political reason. The RN can lose boat loads of ships and the UK will be safe. I sank boat loads of RN ships in my TL, and never came close to being able to seriously threaten the home islands of the British Empire. RN is really, really big in capital ship ability, even bigger in ability to build ships fast, and even bigger in HUGE numbers of cruisers.
Now it is almost ASB for Japan to join the central powers, but I will give it a run and assume some "secret" deal with Germany so Japan enters within a few months of the start of the war and Germany knows Japan will be at worst neutral. OK, likely the German fleet stays in the east. Tsingtao becomes a base for arming AMC which will be very annoying but far from decisive. I can't overstate how poorly planned the Germans AMC operation will be at the beginning but they will arm some ships. Interesting, German shipping was disporportionally involved in the China trade. The UK will move enough ships to Hong Kong or Singapore to protect the Indian Ocean. The UK is very short of troops , so they will not be able to take Tsingtao, much less harm the Japanese home islands. Seaborne trade will collapse in China, and the Chinese will suffer. Once Japan enters, it becomes tough for the UK who might well lose Hong Kong, depending of force allocation decisions. Then it will stalemate at sea and land. Japan focuses on removing British influence in China, RN keeps Japan in Pacific and away from Australia.
Lots of butterflies, but hard to call besides few points.
- ANZAC earns it glory in Pacific.
- Profound effect on Aussie and Kiwi national perspective.
- Probably slows UK in Africa a bit, especially East Africa.
- Most important effect to look at is Russia. Since WW1 was lost by CP on land and in the east, it is very important how Russia reacts. Due they basically do OTL and ignore Japan in the east or do they send additional forces eastward?
BlondieBC
Banned
RN will Always defend England first. RN will lose in Pacific to save England, look at OTL WW2 for an example. A lot of the problem with Singapore defense was as tension increased, the UK did not send required forces eastward. High Seas Fleet remains Fleet in Being, meaning, threat that ties down RN ships. Understand this, the RN has enough subs, cruisers, mines and the like to keep High Seas Fleet from camping off England coast, even if 75% of capital ships are lost. I would dearly love to write the "Kaiser victory parade in London" TL, but it can't be done with 1914 or later POD.
Japan will likely do some merchant raiding, but they can simply use warships to shut down trade around China. It is a long way from Japan to Singapore, check the distances. Japan does not have ITTL the bases in China it had IOTL WW2. Japan will first try to control (sphere of influence) China, and that will consume Japanese resources. And there is the issue of the temptation to take the Russian Far East.
BlondieBC
Banned
Could? Sure I guess.
But why not take something more valuable, easier, and closer such as the Yellow River Valley, Yangtze or Hong Kong?
These actions are probably going to pull the US into the war pretty fast. The USA wanted a free-hand in China which contrary to Japan carving off chunks of the China and the European Pacific territories.