WI: Japan seizes Philippines from Germany

Germany had a desire for the Philippines. Let's say the US doesn't bother taking the islands during the Spanish-American War and the indebted Spanish sell the place to the Germans. The Germans proceed to spend a decade or so asserting authority over the islands.

Flash-forward to WWI, and Japan grabs the Philippines.

Might this satiate Japanese expansionism? Asserting authority over and modernizing the archipelago would be a time-intensive and costly endeavor.
 
Actually if they did not bother..they would have Luzon/Tagalog republic like cuba as a temporary protectorate, since the spanish would lose control before the war ends since Aguinaldo does not return.
 
They probably get to keep them after WW1 very, very bad news for the locals.

They might try to assimilate Filipinos who look like they could be Japanese, at least creating some racist hierarchy system where they're just below the Japanese. And brutally enslave the rest like Belgium with the Congo.
 
Throw in Guam and the US doesnt have any possessions to act as a trip wire against Japanese expansion into southeast asia.
 
They probably get to keep them after WW1 very, very bad news for the locals.

They might try to assimilate Filipinos who look like they could be Japanese, at least creating some racist hierarchy system where they're just below the Japanese. And brutally enslave the rest like Belgium with the Congo.

Japanese colonization varies. OTL Japanese management of Korea and Taiwan are very different. Korea being the brutal one while Taiwan being model colony. With regards to the Philippines with a Pod 1898, Philippine culture is roughly the same as Latin/South America. Japanese colonization in OTL recognizes Taiwan as a different culture as Japan while Koreans can be assimilated. If Taiwan is viewed by the Japanese as a different culture to manage, Philippines will be more alien to Japan and would differ how they manage a Japanese Philippines.

One imagines rather like the other German colonies they seized they'd be able to keep them. Which says terrifyingly bad things for the Filipinos.

It totally depends on how Germans view a brown race, predominantly Catholic, whose culture and sophistication were roughly similar to Latin/South America during the same time period than German Africa or New Guinea.
 
With the amount of resources Japan spends fighting the various Filipino insurgencies, Japan might not have the spare effort for any Chinese misadventures, Manchurian or otherwise.
 
Would Japan necessarily annex the Islands as opposed to setting up a puppet state as they did in otl during World War 2 ?
 
It totally depends on how Germans view a brown race, predominantly Catholic, whose culture and sophistication were roughly similar to Latin/South America during the same time period than German Africa or New Guinea.

Considering they were genociding the peoples of Namibia for the grave crime of existing and outright enslaving the peoples of German New Guinea? I'd wager they would do similarly to the Filipinos regardless of their religion.
 
Throw in Guam and the US doesnt have any possessions to act as a trip wire against Japanese expansion into southeast asia.

A portion of the US investment in PI would have been directed to China instead. So a bit more commitment to China. US Japanese tensions would vary in details War Plan Orange would vary as well, & relate to a US China alignment vs the PI influence of OTL.
 
It would happen during World War 1 so there wasn't much Germany could do about it and after Versailles Japan would get to keep the Philippines.
The Philippines would also serve as a staging base are the Japanese military making the conquest of a Dutch East Indies easier and faster when the second world war starts
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
The Philippines would also serve as a staging base are the Japanese military making the conquest of a Dutch East Indies easier and faster when the second world war starts
And that’s exactly why they wouldn’t be allowed to have the whole Phillipines. They would get the northern part, but Britain will take the south to keep the Japanese away from Malaya. Either that or they give it to the Netherlands and get the rest of Borneo in exchange.
Considering they were genociding the peoples of Namibia for the grave crime of existing and outright enslaving the peoples of German New Guinea? I'd wager they would do similarly to the Filipinos regardless of their religion.
I’m no apologist for the Kaiserreich, but Germany deciding to just massacre the Filipinos is implausible. They would probably be more heavy-handed with the Tagalog nationalists and Moros than America, but it isn’t going to descend into Belgian Congo or Second World War Eastern Front levels of depravity.
 
Last edited:
It would happen during World War 1 so there wasn't much Germany could do about it and after Versailles Japan would get to keep the Philippines.

You misunderstand.

The Americans were not going to allow it, because they were driving across the Pacific with a vengeance.

[The Philippines would also serve as a staging base are the Japanese military making the conquest of a Dutch East Indies easier and faster when the second world war starts

Again, during their only window of opportunity, the Japanese have other more immediate concerns, namely Russia. The Japanese bungled Hawaii and were not going to do any better in the Philippine Islands. As I wrote, this is an ASB exercise.
 
Keep in mind that even if Japan does get the Philippines, it would officially be as a mandate with the expectation that the islands would be granted independence at some point.

And that’s exactly why they wouldn’t be allowed to have the whole Phillipines. They would get the northern part, but Britain will take the south to keep the Japanese away from Malaya. Either that or they give it to the Netherlands and get the rest of Borneo in exchange.

I’m no apologist for the Kaiserreich, but Germany deciding to just massacre the Filipinos is implausible. They would probably be more heavy-handed with the Tagalog nationalists and Moros than America, but it isn’t going to descend into Belgian Congo or Second World War Eastern Front levels of depravity.

Or if Japan is jointly occupying the islands with the British, they could trade what they had for something else and hand the Philippines over to another power, most likepy Britain but possibly France (which is Catholic) as their mandate. If Germany got Guam and the other Spanish islands, Japan then might get to keep all the German possessions in the Central Pacific outright instead of as a mandate. They might get to keep Tsingtao too. If Japan was to do its Russian expedition, it would have a hard time dealing with insurrection in the Philippines.
 
Last edited:

BigBlueBox

Banned
Or they'd trade what they had for something else and hand the Philippines over to another power, most likely Britain or France (which is Catholic). Id Germany got GUAM and the other Spanish islands, Japan then might get to keep all thee German possessions in the Central Pacific outright instead of as a mandate. They might get to keep Tsingtao too.
Tsingtao is a whole different ball game - assuming both China and the USA joined the Entente, there would be a great amount of pressure on the Japanese to withdraw and leave the area to the Chinese.
 
Tsingtao is a whole different ball game - assuming both China and the USA joined the Entente, there would be a great amount of pressure on the Japanese to withdraw and leave the area to the Chinese.
But if the cost was a Japanese Philippines AND a Japanese central Pacific? Japan would have control of a continuous series of islands stretching almost from the Bering Sea to Celebes.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
But if the cost was a Japanese Philippines AND a Japanese central Pacific?
I don’t think anyone cares about those little islands in the middle of the Pacific. But Japan can be forced to withdraw from both Tsingtao and the southern Philippines through economic pressure. That’s assuming they get to the South Philippines before the British, which is no guarantee.
 
You misunderstand.

The Americans were not going to allow it, because they were driving across the Pacific with a vengeance.



Again, during their only window of opportunity, the Japanese have other more immediate concerns, namely Russia. The Japanese bungled Hawaii and were not going to do any better in the Philippine Islands. As I wrote, this is an ASB exercise.

It doesn't matter what the Americans will or will not allow in the time frame.
 
Top