WI: Japan remains neutral in ww2?

Japan never starts the second sino-japanese war and remains neutral in ww2.
What would happen to Mandchuko and China? Would Japan remain a military dictatorship?
 

BlondieBC

Banned
The Japanese empire would still be there. The butterflies are massive since we likely see a Nationalist China for example.

Japan was a imperfect democracy and will remain an imperfect democracy. The relative power of the PM, Army, Navy, and Emperor could/would vary over time.
 
OTL the US expended approximately 20% of its war making strength against Japan If any one has more refined numbers for the US or Allies, please post them here.

With that I see two courses:

1. No threat of war at all. In this case US military commitment to the Pacific/Asia in the bare minimum. Less than 5% of the gross effort.

2. A initial threat of war, alleviated by siucessfull negotiations. In this case the US keeps a garrison & deference force in the Pacific region. Between 5% & 10% of the gross war effort.

With #1 I see much more robust operations vs the Axis in 1942. Possiblly a GYMNAST operation in the Med in the spring or summer of 1942, with operations against Sicilly, Sardinia, Corsica, & perhaps Crete and other locations in the eastern Med through the next nine months. The extra cargo ships, aircraft, amphibs, warships, & everything else tips the balance towards a successful invasion of NW Europe in 1943. Probablly German collapse earlier at the end of 1944.

#2 Falls between the above and OTL. Earlier victories in the Med and earlier even more robust invasions of France. Perhaps Op Anvil being executed as early as the winter of 1943-44 & Other attacks on the French coast similarly accelerated.

The main advantage is the redirectionn of cargo shipping to the Atlantic, with the second being the air forces. The PTO sucked away large quantities of both. ie: it typically took three times as long to deliver a ton of material to its destination in the Pacific, vs the delivery time to the UK. So 100 cargo ships of 10,000 tons capacity could deliver 3,000,000 tons to the UK vs 1,000,000,000 to Micronesia, Australia, or the Solomons.

Amphib lift redirected from the PTO adds roughly a corps worth of lift in 1942, and at least two corps worth for 1943, maybe more. that allows much more robust ops in the the MTO/ETO.

A third second tier advantage would be the full weight of the USN in the Atlantic/Mediterranean. This turns the German and Italian surface fleets into non entities. from the start of 1942. What the effect of several extra fleet carriers and a escort carrier or two on ASW ops in 1942 would be I'll leave to others.

Thats on the US side of the ledger. Commonwealth gains are similar in scale absent campaigns in Malaysia, & Burma.
 
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