WI: Japan pulls a Thailand

Japan was one of the few nations in Asia not to be colonized, and was able to become a colonizer itself. Yet, there was another small nation that escaped European colonization, and that was Thailand, which didn't really suffer too much from colonization other, but didn't become a massive empire either. What if, instead of expanding, Japan pulled a Thailand?
 
Japan was one of the few nations in Asia not to be colonized, and was able to become a colonizer itself. Yet, there was another small nation that escaped European colonization, and that was Thailand, which didn't really suffer too much from colonization other, but didn't become a massive empire either. What if, instead of expanding, Japan pulled a Thailand?

The problem lies with the relative lack of industrial resources Japan had at its disposal (i.e. Coal, Oil, Rubber)
Tokyo needs secure these in order to keep up with its neighbors and that means at least Korea and Manchuria needs to be captured
 
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This is fairly easy, either a somewhat later or more messy Meiji restoration combined with moderately improved Russian success could definitely prevent Japan from gaining any territory on the mainland. This wouldn't really resemble Thailand though, as it would still leave Japan in full control of its own islands. To achieve something like Thailand there'd need to be active European meddling in the home islands.

Japan doing the former is probably good for it in the long run. No ruinous wars in Asia, probably very good relations with China and Korea when they become independent, and generally as a cultural, economic, and political leader in Asia. East Asia today could well be reasonably integrated (not politically) with relations fairly similar to OTL Western Europe.
 
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