WI: Japan occupies French Pacific Islands

Shortly (even on the next day if possible) after the armistice, Japanese warships appear off the coast of New Caledonia, Wallis&Fortuna and French Polynesia. Some French possessions offer brief resistance, others don't, but all of the above are occupied.

1. Would Britain and/or the US immediately go to war over this? (my guess is no, just institute embargo ala OTL)
2. Would Australia consent to having their best units sent to Egypt, with the Japanese so close to home? (my guess is again no, which puts the British into something of a predicament)
3. What kind of butterflies can we expect wrt the Pacific war?
 
Shortly (even on the next day if possible) after the armistice, Japanese warships appear off the coast of New Caledonia, Wallis&Fortuna and French Polynesia. Some French possessions offer brief resistance, others don't, but all of the above are occupied.

1. Would Britain and/or the US immediately go to war over this? (my guess is no, just institute embargo ala OTL)
2. Would Australia consent to having their best units sent to Egypt, with the Japanese so close to home? (my guess is again no, which puts the British into something of a predicament)
3. What kind of butterflies can we expect wrt the Pacific war?

But logistics tho
 

nbcman

Donor
Shortly (even on the next day if possible) after the armistice, Japanese warships appear off the coast of New Caledonia, Wallis&Fortuna and French Polynesia. Some French possessions offer brief resistance, others don't, but all of the above are occupied.

1. Would Britain and/or the US immediately go to war over this? (my guess is no, just institute embargo ala OTL)
2. Would Australia consent to having their best units sent to Egypt, with the Japanese so close to home? (my guess is again no, which puts the British into something of a predicament)
3. What kind of butterflies can we expect wrt the Pacific war?
What would the Japanese gain by taking the French Pacific islands? Nickel? The Japanese reason to take northern Indochina was to stop the flow of supplies to the Nationalist Chinese. It makes no strategic sense for the Japanese to capture mostly worthless islands at the cost of angering the US, UK and Australia.

EDIT: Angering New Zealand too.
 
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What would the Japanese gain by taking the French Pacific islands? Nickel? The Japanese reason to take northern Indochina was to stop the flow of supplies to the Nationalist Chinese. It makes no strategic sense for the Japanese to capture mostly worthless islands at the cost of angering the US, UK and Australia.
Stepping stone for "Go south" I guess
 
how about stepping stones for a hypothetical Australia/New Zealand invasion? And stopping Americans from being able to send supplies to Australia via air?
 
None of those islands are a stepping stone to the Netherlands East Indies or Malaya. In fact, French Polynesia is to the EAST of the Hawaiian Islands.
Well the entire Japanese battle plan, if I'm not mistaken, was to attrit the enemy fleet before it made contact with their own. Some of these islands could maybe be used in that regard
 
Well the entire Japanese battle plan, if I'm not mistaken, was to attrit the enemy fleet before it made contact with their own. Some of these islands could maybe be used in that regard
That would require these islands to be on the way to the Philippines. They are so far out of the way that they could be completely bypassed without a second thought. The Solomon Islands, Fiji, etc. lie between Japanese supply bases and Polynesia. Logistics is the key, not for the initial invasion, but because they would be immediately cutoff in a war with the US and Australia. Not to mention the provocation of seizing islands so far from Indochina as to possibly spark the Pacific War early.
 
That would require these islands to be on the way to the Philippines. They are so far out of the way that they could be completely bypassed without a second thought. The Solomon Islands, Fiji, etc. lie between Japanese supply bases and Polynesia. Logistics is the key, not for the initial invasion, but because they would be immediately cutoff in a war with the US and Australia. Not to mention the provocation of seizing islands so far from Indochina as to possibly spark the Pacific War early.

Polynesia was an afterthought anyway - New Caledonia mostly, but also W&F, was the main focus of my WI
 
Polynesia was an afterthought anyway - New Caledonia mostly, but also W&F, was the main focus of my WI

They'll do a good job of isolating Australia - but only if you can keep them supplied. If fortified sufficiently before PH they should be able to hold out without resupply for some time, particularly since allied strength in the area was minimal. However, it does kinda telegraph Japanese intentions and grand strategy, and while I doubt that it would lead to war, it would lead to considerable changes in attitudes and deployments among the western powers. An interesting idea, certainly.
 
They'll do a good job of isolating Australia - but only if you can keep them supplied. If fortified sufficiently before PH they should be able to hold out without resupply for some time, particularly since allied strength in the area was minimal. However, it does kinda telegraph Japanese intentions and grand strategy, and while I doubt that it would lead to war, it would lead to considerable changes in attitudes and deployments among the western powers. An interesting idea, certainly.
What kind of different deployments might we be looking at here?
 
Regarding the occupation of French Pacific Islands, I don't see how Japan could want it early. After all, their decision to go after the Pacific Islands and fight the Americans here was motivated by Allies' actions against their war effort in China after they occupied French Indochina, though that escalation of the conflict didn't happen until mid 1941 as I understand it.

New Caledonia, for instance, was too far away from China for Japan to bother, and it had rallied de Gaulle's Free French government early (september 40), a foregone conclusion given the island dependence on Australian coal to process its mineral ressources, and a small Australian contingent had landed here in summer 41.
http://histoire-geo.ac-noumea.nc/spip.php?article130
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Histoire_de_la_Nouvelle-Calédonie_pendant_la_Seconde_Guerre_mondiale
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henri_Sautot
 
Regarding the occupation of French Pacific Islands, I don't see how Japan could want it early. After all, their decision to go after the Pacific Islands and fight the Americans here was motivated by Allies' actions against their war effort in China after they occupied French Indochina, though that escalation of the conflict didn't happen until mid 1941 as I understand it.

New Caledonia, for instance, was too far away from China for Japan to bother, and it had rallied de Gaulle's Free French government early (september 40), a foregone conclusion given the island dependence on Australian coal to process its mineral ressources, and a small Australian contingent had landed here in summer 41.
http://histoire-geo.ac-noumea.nc/spip.php?article130
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Histoire_de_la_Nouvelle-Calédonie_pendant_la_Seconde_Guerre_mondiale
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henri_Sautot
My idea was to get the Japanese to occupy the islands shortly after the armistice, hell even on the next day if they could manage it, perhaps by being given a heads-up from their people in Germany. Certainly not in '41 once the Australians arrived.

As to why - let's assume it's driven by inter-service rivalry between the IJN and IJA, with this being a pure IJN operation.
 
The occupation of northern Indochina at least had the pretext that it would stop supplies going to China. Landing in French Polynesia is a clear indication that Japan intends to do something about the European colonies and threaten Australia and New Zealand. It would cause a reaction in the British Empire and the United States. And it would greatly impact the Free French and Vichy France. Remember that the move into northern Indochina technically was agreed to by Vichy France and the French authorities remained in place even though Japanese troops were everywhere.

Instead of being considered a backwater, the British would have to take defense plans in Asia seriously. Secondly, if the Japanese land in New Caledonia, it may prompt the British to occupy French Polynesia to beat the Japanese to prevent a fait accompli. Fighting some cut off French forces in chaos is one thing, but having to kill New Zealanders or Australians to take Noumea means war with the British Empire in 1940. If the Japanese have arranged things to occupy everything at the same time to prevent that, it'll just spook the US and Britain even more. Hard to see how any surprise attack could happen after that. Don't forget that right in the middle is the New Hebrides - an Anglo-French condominium. That's going to get fortified very quickly.

If this occurs immediately after the armistice, it puts Vichy France in a poor situation. If it can't protect French colonial possessions, it risks alienating the rest of the colonies that they may declare for Free France. It might even butterfly the attack on Mers-el-Kebir as the French Fleet defects to the Allies so that it can be deployed to protect the French colonies. If French North Africa declares for Free France, it will help the Allies far more than losing the French Pacific possessions hurts them.

This is going to erode isolationist sentiment in the US even faster. US planning with the British just won't be about helping them in Europe, but preparing for things in the Pacific. I imagine the US preparations in their island possessions and the Philippines will be much more thorough and done under a greater sense of urgency.

The new Japanese possessions are very, very far away from their other logistical base of support. In case of war, they will likely fall very quickly unless you expect the Japanese to waste naval assets to protect them. To my eyes, this is done just way too early to give them any benefit compared to what they lose in regards to shocking the Western democracies.
 
For New Caledonia, there is also for IJN to go through Commonwealth territory before undertaking any move towards the island.
 
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