WI Japan never attacked Pearl Harbor In WWII

Cook

Banned

What is his point? For whatever reason, it wasn't done and there is little reason that it would be different in the altered TL.



I would have thought the point was obvious, the RAF were making vast sweeps over northern France with fighters that were achieving very little; the aircraft and aircrews were available. They were just in concentrated excessively in Europe; even the Middle East was short of aircraft and that’s where the fighting was actually taking place at the time.

And, yet, between December 10th, 1941, when the HMS Prince Of Wales and HMS Repulse were sunk, and March 31st, 1942, when the Indian Ocean Raid began, the British only managed to equip Ceylon with 50 Hurricanes - of which some 38 were shot down.

What is the reason for the ‘And yet’?

The Ceylon, India and the Far East had all been stripped of their defences.
 
I would have thought the point was obvious, the RAF were making vast sweeps over northern France with fighters that were achieving very little; the aircraft and aircrews were available. They were just in concentrated excessively in Europe; even the Middle East was short of aircraft and that’s where the fighting was actually taking place at the time.

What is the reason for the ‘And yet’?

The Ceylon, India and the Far East had all been stripped of their defences.

1) So Ceylon would still have been shorted?

2) What was that business about a "Wasp stinging twice," then?

3) Everyone recognized how serious the situation was and nothing was done.
 
This is incorrect. The original Japanese operational plan for a "Go South" initiative, the Nagano Plan, stressed, above all else, not going to war with the United States. Osami Nagano, Chief of the Naval General Staff, and the highest ranking officer of the IJN, was adamantly against a war with the United States (as was, for all intents and purposes, the entirety of the IJN). Thus, Nagano's original strategic operational plan proposed to divert around the Phillippines, and relied on the United States political process to forestall a war with the US. The assumption rested on the unwillingness of the American public to defend European imperialism (an accurate assumption) to delay or prevent FDR from declaring war, which in all likelihood would have happened. Even if Congress did agree to a declaration of war, the entire process is public and gives the Japanese time to prepare for it.

It was only after Admiral Yamamoto threatened Nagano with his resignation, and the resignation of the entirety of the Combined Fleet's senior staff, that Nagano was reluctantly shoehorned into Yamamoto's plan for Pearl Harbor. Ah, the irony. Almost no one in the IJN believed a war with the United States was winnable in the end, yet they still went ahead and pushed it through.

In any event, a Pacific War without a Japanese Declaration of War on the US puts Japan in a far better position. One of the greatest problems throughout the Pacific War for Japan was logistics. The Japanese merchant marine simply couldn't handle the effort of supplying a war in the Eastern Pacific. Whereas ships going southward to the DEI had the added benefit of transporting oil and raw materials and military materiel to and fro, those ships going to the Eastern Pacific came back home with nothing. Moreover, the inherent idiocy of sailing around the East Pacific looking for a decisive battle, burning up lots and lots of oil both transporting aforementioned oil and in actual patrols, when you're fighting a war because of an oil shortage, is rather stupid logistically. In this scenario, Japan isn't going to all these lengths to supply barren islands on the other side of the Pacific, and can fully devote towards utilizing and exploiting the riches of the DEIs. The United States will certainly declare war later then in OTL, and there wouldn't be as strong a political will to persecute a total war with Japan (no Pearl Harbor). In the event war with the US does follow, the Japanese would be in a far better position to combat the US, having had more time to consolidate their gains. Moreover, the USN is still greatly hampered, and can't operate far outside of Pearl Harbor (which was already stretching the US ability to supply the navy). Without a large enough tanker or transport fleet, the USN is effectively grounded for several months (since the battleships were never sunk, which magically lessened the logistics burden of the USN). The naval facilities in the Philippines were completely inadequate for maintaining the USN, as are the airbases, which means that any naval operation being fought in and around the Philippines would put the USN at a severe disadvantage (beyond the preexisting qualitative difference between the Combined Fleet and the Pacific Fleet). So, if political pressure forces the USN to act (which isn't unreasonable to assume), the Pacific Fleet would be operating in far worse conditions then they were in OTL. If they try to operate out of the Philippines, the USN and any aircraft faces an extremely long supply line (which would certainly be harassed by the gauntlet of Japanese held air bases and submarines), much as the IJN had to at Wake or Midway. In the event they operate out of Pearl Harbor, the IJN now has the benefit of operating out of Truk (which was already well-supplied and was equipped with excellent port facilities).

Certainly, if (when?) the US shifts into total war, they will begin producing transports like crazy and will certainly alleviate the distressful logistics situation, but this still buys the Japanese critical time, and helps their own logistic situation much better.

Not to mention it gives Germany more time before going to war with the US.

So there you go.

Certainly, going to war with the US was a stupid idea.

Certainly, attacking the DEI and Malayasia would not have (immediately) brought the US into the war (despite Roosevelt's promises to Churchill).

OTOH. It's really, really hard to see the the US staying out in the long term, Roosevelt is going to be actively looking for an excuse, and individual Japanese officers are going to provide it.

By April '42 the Philippines was slated to be able to hold its own. If the US doesn't join the Pacific War until then (or a bit later), then they don't have to island hop across the Pacific, they can start from the Philippines.
 

Markus

Banned
And, yet, between December 10th, 1941, when the HMS Prince Of Wales and HMS Repulse were sunk, and March 31st, 1942, when the Indian Ocean Raid began, the British only managed to equip Ceylon with 50 Hurricanes - of which some 38 were shot down.


And many times that number of a/c were send to Singapore and Java, where they were lost. That was one reason, the other being the poor strategic mobility of air units, something not noticed before. By the way, you forgot ~40 Fairey Fulmar II, a dozen Swordfish, the Blenheims and PBY.


And here is my idea for an alternate use of the IJN after the conquest of SEA is finished:

Go for the South West Pacific. Take Port Moresby and you own all of New Guinea. After that hit Tulagi, the New Hebrides, New Caledonia, Fiji and the entire SWPA is strangled in its crib. Map.
 
And many times that number of a/c were send to Singapore and Java, where they were lost. That was one reason, the other being the poor strategic mobility of air units, something not noticed before. By the way, you forgot ~40 Fairey Fulmar II, a dozen Swordfish, the Blenheims and PBY.

What makes you think I forgot planes that were no match for those used by the IJN? How about I just ignored them seeing as they were death traps?

Here is the sentence I was working off of when I wrote that - "The defence of the island of Ceylon had not been a total fiasco, even though there was criticism that the radar system had been switched off as it was a Sunday. The RAF and FAA squadrons on the island, although with few effective aircraft (50 Hurricanes against some 300 Japanese aircraft) plus some obsolete or unsuitable ones (Catalinas, Blenheims and Fulmars) provided some defence."

As you see, all of those planes but the far obsolete Swordfish are mentioned and discounted.

And here is my idea for an alternate use of the IJN after the conquest of SEA is finished: Go for the South West Pacific. Take Port Moresby and you own all of New Guinea. After that hit Tulagi, the New Hebrides, New Caledonia, Fiji and the entire SWPA is strangled in its crib. Map.

Are you using US in or US out at this point? If US out, why not just try to strangle the Brits by going for Ceylon?
 

Markus

Banned
What makes you think I forgot planes that were no match for those used by the IJN? How about I just ignored them seeing as they were death traps?

Here is the sentence I was working off of when I wrote that - "The defence of the island of Ceylon had not been a total fiasco, even though there was criticism that the radar system had been switched off as it was a Sunday.

Are you using US in or US out at this point? If US out, why not just try to strangle the Brits by going for Ceylon?

The Fulmars were the Mk.II model that could carry a 500lb bomb. The radar wasn´t off. IIRC there was only one set and the first attack hit an area without. The 2nd attack a few das later was picked up by radar, allowing the fighters to get in an intercept position.

US in! US out is too unrealistic to consider it and with Burma and the Malaya barrier in Japanese hands the Brits are already out. IOTL they did not get back into Burma until late 44 and even that would not have been possible if the japanese had not attacked Impal and Kohima.
 
Certainly, going to war with the US was a stupid idea.

Certainly, attacking the DEI and Malayasia would not have (immediately) brought the US into the war (despite Roosevelt's promises to Churchill).

OTOH. It's really, really hard to see the the US staying out in the long term, Roosevelt is going to be actively looking for an excuse, and individual Japanese officers are going to provide it.

By April '42 the Philippines was slated to be able to hold its own. If the US doesn't join the Pacific War until then (or a bit later), then they don't have to island hop across the Pacific, they can start from the Philippines.

I brought this subject up once myself (www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=96639).

The problem is China. The US started sanctions over that and it's still a sore point (and remember, due to these Japan is short of oil and steel). Japan will be walking a tightrope as Roosevelt is looking for any excuse to get into war. But with _Germany_ first, if Japan is careful politically they might be able to overrun both Dutch and UK possitions and possible fortify the area before the US gets involved.

If no Pearl Harbor, Philippines or Wake Island then Kido Butai would best be used to support the invasions of the DEI (for the oil, beating the Dutch before they can sabotage the rigs) and Malaya (rubber, tin and other desperately needed items). Treat the local population better and maybe set up new manufacturing centers to process this material.

But as I said at some point the US will be dragged into war. _If_ Japan gets lucky then its only against Germany and Italy, but at some point I see the US and Japan going to war...

The Philippines were supposed to be able to defend themselves by early 1942 but given Dugout Doug's track record I don't see that realistically happening...
 

Markus

Banned
Geography!

The japanese SLOC from the "southern resource area" to Japan runs right along the PI. They can´t allow the US to dig in there.
The US also can´t allow Japan to take the DEI. The areas north and east of the PI were already under japanese control. With the DEI they would also have the south and west, the PI would be cut off.
 
Given how the Phillipine army units performed when Japan actually invaded it is safe to say that the Phillipines would not have been capable of self-defense in 1942 despite MacArthur's claims.


What good does it do Japan to seize vast territories and then dig in when the US response is to seize those islands necessary for bases and ignore most of those Japanese fortifications?
 
Why would the U.S. fight to the death against the Japanese for unconditional surrender with the same will as in OTL in a scenario where "U.S. declares war first"? They'd be prolonging the war to protect European colonies.
 

Markus

Banned
Given how the Phillipine army units performed when Japan actually invaded it is safe to say that the Phillipines would not have been capable of self-defense in 1942 despite MacArthur's claims.

The Filipinos fought extremely well under the (horrible) circumstances; one BAR per company, whole battalions of riflemen who had never even fired a rifle on a target range, regiments with a heavy weapons stash of four .50s and half a dozen WW1 trench mortars and ammo that had a 75% dud rate. If Mac had done his work half as well as his men the rather small invasion force would have been in for the (last) surprise of their life.

The PI needed to be taken to prevent the US from using it as a base.
 
If Mac had done his work a tenth as well as his men the rather small invasion force would have been in for the (last) surprise of their life.

Fixed that for ya. ;-)

I read a published AH once where Ike is put in command of the Far East instead of DougMac. He picks Patton to command the 1st Provisional Tank Group and Doolittle (IIRC) to command the FEAF.

Unsurprisingly, the first Japanese attack is thrown back into the sea, with Formosa being bombed within hours of word of the attack on Pearl coming in.

Edit: note, on paper the PI had a dozen divisions (all but one of them Philippine Army, the last being US). The Japanese invasion force could charitably be described as having three or four divisions. Numbers are by no means everything, but the deck SHOULD have been heavily stacked against the Japanese.

Edit 2: see OOB here: http://niehorster.orbat.com/014_japan/_ops.html and here: http://niehorster.orbat.com/013_usa/_41_usarmy/philippines/_usaffe.htm
 
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Da Pwnzlord

Banned
Couldn't Japan wait until 1946 or so to make their move on the Philippines? I thought that the U.S.A. was in a hurry to give the Philippines independence for economic reasons. Once the U.S.A. leaves, it will obviously be difficult for an invasion of the Philippines to cause a war. Who's going to fight over some colonies that the U.S. just got rid of?

Also, it seems out of character for Japan to decide the U.S. was a threat they couldn't ignore. The military leadership was convinced that they could hit the U.S. hard and fast enough to make them drop out of the war. Whether they do that before or after they take Dutch East Indies doesn't seem like it should matter to the confidant Japanese. It pales in comparison to all the other insane risks they took. Besides, every "U.S.A. declares war first" TL pretty much starts with "Pacific Fleet gets curb-stomped by the Kido Butai somewhere between Hawaii and the Philippines." The judgment of historians rates the chances for Japanese success higher than the Japanese themselves did. That's really not a sentence that you see very often. And it doesn't even take into account the possibility of the U.S. not declaring war at all.
 
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