WI: Japan makes peace with China in 1942

The problem is that once the Japanese went further in to China then Manchuria, that territory was beyond giving up (see DavidT's post for the rationale). There were also other demands which the USA would not be going along with in addition to the territorial claims. The out of control actions of the Kwantung Army deliberately extended the war beyond Manchuria, this behavior pattern cannot be overemphasized.
 
Get China to discover the Liaohe oilfields and retain control of a few provinces near Manchuria. Make economic puppets of the warlord states with the Nationalists as powerful as two or three together but not all. Phillipines will remain a thorn and concern of Japan as would other returned Western colonies.
 
Assuming Japan finds oil fields under Chinese/Manchurian soil it controls in the late 30s. The oil field has to be developed, and part of Japan's problem was their refining capacity especially for high octane aviation gas. Developing the oil field, building the refining capacity, is going to require a lot of money and will probably require to purchase a lot of specialized equipment from elsewhere and possibly even need some help. Japan did not have a ton of oil field and refinery expertise. The advantage of Borneo and the DEI was that there was both crude oil and refining capacity. Note that the refining capacity of Borneo and the DEI that was destroyed by retreating forces was never fully rebuilt by the Japanese.

The lack of Japanese capacity to refine crude was why the really painful part of the embargo was the stoppage of refined products. Even if those Chinese oilfields magically were pumping, and there were railroads and tank cars or pipelines to send it somewhere (like back to Japan), it was marginally useful until refined.
 
The problem with asking whether Japan would be willing to reach a compromise settlement with China after the Pearl Harbor attack is that if it were willing and able to make such a compromise, there would not have *been* a Pearl Harbor attack. China was the sticking point in the US-Japaese negotiations in 1941.

Except as I pointed out, this could change as the Pacific War progresses. Japan's priorities are going to be less and less about holding onto China and more and more about not being utterly crushed as time goes on.
 
Except as I pointed out, this could change as the Pacific War progresses. Japan's priorities are going to be less and less about holding onto China and more and more about not being utterly crushed as time goes on.

This mean that the Japanese leaderships had some attachment with reality, but OTL clearly demonstrated that they lived in their own little fantasy world till the US dropped a couple of atomic bomb on them. All the Japanese pacific offensive had one clear objective...eliminate any possible opposition to their conquest of China. In practice you need a political u-turn and someone with enough capacity to survive the attempt at his life if annouce this proposal and phisically eliminate his adversary
 
Japan really did not change priorities in terms of China until the last year of the war when the best units of the Kwantung Army were transferred out of Manchuria to Japan for homeland defense, or in a few cases other areas. The percentage of IJA forces that were fighting outside of China (including Manchuria) was small compared to those dealing with China. Victory in China was the goal of the IJA until late in the war when the Americans got close to the home islands.
 
As many on this forum have said, Japan had to attack European and US colonies in South East Asia and Pacific to be able to continue the war with China, which they did. As will all know this didn't turn out to be the best idea. My question is: What if Japanese military leaders realized that they had no chance of winning a war with United States, United Kingdom, Netherlands and France and sued for peace with China with limited demands (some coastal cities, for example)? Would China accept it? If so, what impact would surviving Japanese empire have during the Cold War?
The top brass gets assassinated and lower-level officers continue the fight, just like in the leadup to the Second Sino-Japanese war.
 
Assuming that an ASB changes the minds of many in the IJA and there is a peace in China BEFORE PH, you see Japan still holding Manchuria, Korea, Formosa, and various Pacific Islands - more or less the Japanese Empire of 1935 or thereabouts. I expect Chiang will use the end of the war with Japan to crush the communists, which he can do in this scenario and assuming the USSR is busy fighting Germany 1941-45 they can't aid Mao even if they want to.

Since the impetus behind the Manhattan Project was using the bomb against Germany, this will continue. Depending in when Germany surrenders, you may get the project going to the first bomb tests - in any case atomic weapons will exist sometime in the 40s. Imperial Japan will work to get them once they are out, and will eventually become an independent atomic power, although well after the USA, USSR, Britain and (maybe) France.

If the war in China ends in fall, 1941 even with a non-aggression pact, the fact that Japan now has more military power to put along the Japan-Soviet border means some of the Siberian forces that went west will probably stay in the east. This may or may not have an effect on the war, not necessarily Germany wins or even takes Moscow, but perhaps the advance of Soviet forces west is a little slower and the cold war border further east/different than OTL. Certainly Southern Sakhalin/Karafuto and the Kurils will not be Soviet territory here, which does change the geopolitics there especially in the light of a continued strong IJN.

I expect that at some time after the end of WWII the US and other western powers will hold their nose and come to some sort of anti-communist agreement with Japan, although probably not a SEATO that includes Japan. Inclusion of Japan in any sort of defense pact, and US direct guarantees will be long in coming if at all. Look how long it took for Spain to get in to NATO as an example.

Any and all of this depends on Japan and China coming to some settlement BEFORE PH. Once Japan has attacked PH, and you have attacks on Guam, Wake, and the PI (with the Bataan Death March) the Japanese and Chinese ending that fight won't mean all is well between Japan and the USA.
 
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I think 1943 is a better possoble peace point as the US entry into the war is still fresh and China has reason to hope for future fortunes. Having the Midway Atoll and perhaps Port Moresby fall along with a reverse of fortune at the Coral Sea, perhaps with Mikawa also destroying the transports at the initial landings at Guadalcanal and allowing their bombers to occupy a functional air base there, would put a serious dent in those hopes. Putting an Imperial Japanese flag on E. Santo or Fiji would be even worse. China was in a bad way in late 1942/early 1943 in OTL but if the US is not felt to be capable of beating Japan...
 
@M79: If the Japanese successes you posit occur, this will only raise the fever of victory disease in Japan. If the USA is getting as stomped as this, the Japanese are doing better in China (fewer Allied resources of all sorts going there to help Chiang) and the defense perimeter to keep the USA at arms length is even better than hoped for. Would Japan make peace with China in this situation, only if the Chinese basically accept whatever terms the Japanese choose to present to them. IMHO even if Chiang rolls over for the Japanese, some Chinese elements, and not just the communists, will do their best to continue guerilla actions against the Japanese. Furthermore, if the Japanese had retreated from China including Manchuria in 1942, the USA is not going to blow the whistle and end the game. After PH the only way the Pacific War is going to end is one side or the other conceding defeat - not a return to status quo antebellum - and it will take those aforementioned ASBs to make the party dictating terms the Japanese.
 
I think 1943 is a better possoble peace point as the US entry into the war is still fresh and China has reason to hope for future fortunes. Having the Midway Atoll and perhaps Port Moresby fall along with a reverse of fortune at the Coral Sea, perhaps with Mikawa also destroying the transports at the initial landings at Guadalcanal and allowing their bombers to occupy a functional air base there, would put a serious dent in those hopes. Putting an Imperial Japanese flag on E. Santo or Fiji would be even worse. China was in a bad way in late 1942/early 1943 in OTL but if the US is not felt to be capable of beating Japan...

Even if the Japanese completely destroy the US forces during midway, defeating every single carrier while taking no losses of their own, the US will still have numerical parity in carriers before the end of 1943 - and qualitatively, their ships will all be newer and far better as well, same with the aircraft. By the start of 1944, the US carriers would, in total, enjoy nearly a 2-1 advantage in aircraft

By 1943, the US has been at war for over a year, and Pearl Harbor is just as fresh on their minds. The US purposely spent only a small portion of its military against the Japanese, as they were not as great a threat as Germany. By increasing the number of Japanese victories over the US, you will manage to force the diversion of more materials to the west... And you will force the construction of the final 8 Essex class, the final 3 Midway carriers, and additional Saipan light carriers, as well as conversions of other large vessels (cruisers, cruiserliners, and even battleships) may be considered. Illinois and Kentucky would likely be finished as CVs in this timeline

In this case, there would be no campaign to reclaim the Solomon's. It's more likely the US school of thought would win, and the eventual drive would be through the Central Pacific once the forces are ready, and force all of those Japanese conquests to whither on the vine.
 
Presuming Operations FS, MO, and MI succeed the logistical lines are stretched to their limits and even Tojo had expressed reservations about how much farther they could go. Certainly there was opposition from the Navy, if nothing else taking New Caledonia would see Australia and New Zealand pressured to step out of the war. While the US retains material superiority and would have carrier parity in short course, by the end of 1942 and into early 1943 there would be reason to press Chiang into some sort of peace arrangement. Japan would probably focus its navy to (a) cut off ANZAC from the US if they are still involved and (b) gear up for operations towards Madagascar, Sri Lanka, and the Andaman Islands. While Japan is likely to be defeated in 1945/1946 in this case, i think if Japan were to make peace with China this scenario would be their best chance to do so.
 
@M79: To quote a line from a movie.."the only way to win is not to play" Once the Japanese get in to a war with the USA, especially with PH (even if the message is delivered on time in DC) they are screwed. At the beginning of the ACW there was a phrase used among many Union hardliners - "war to the knife and the knife to the hilt". That's what you have here.
 
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