WI - Japan joins the CP?

Snip important point about finances


I'm frankly embarrassed that I didn't even think about just how dependent Japan was on the City of London, to say nothing of the merchant shipping issue.


It also hasn't been addressed in the thread yet by anyone who thinks Japan could win an early Pacific War.

Let's grant that Japan maintains naval supremacy (not hard,) neutralises China (harder,) keeps her shipping lines open (harder still) and somehow secures a strategic perimeter in south-east Asia (frankly I don't see how this is possible.)


How does Japan pay for any of this? The militarists had huge difficulty keeping the economy functional in the Pacific War, and that was coming from the base of a much more developed economy and richer starting imperial possessions.

They've cut themselves off from London, Berlin can't aid them and they're certainly not going to be floating any loans in New York given just how much they'll have sparked a Yellow Peril payout. They won't be able to run a plunder economy because outside a few Guano islands and whatever parts of the Far East they take off Russia, there's nothing to plunder.

So again: why would they start this war, how would they fight it, how would they keep anything they gained (even in the event of a CP victory, the first thing Britain and probably France will do is go east for a bit of revanche, and the US almost certainly enters this theatre at least)- and how do they pay for it?
 
...
So again: why would they start this war, how would they fight it, how would they keep anything they gained (even in the event of a CP victory, the first thing Britain and probably France will do is go east for a bit of revanche, and the US almost certainly enters this theatre at least)- and how do they pay for it?

Make their citizens work for massive taxation? I'm not sure that would be enough. I've seen arguments thats how they bridged the finance gap for the costs of taking over Manchria, the China War, the border clashes with the USSR, & expanding the navy. By impoverishing the citizenry.

Perhaps there is a expert here who can help us understand exactly how Japan financed its industrial growth and military to 1941?
 

BlondieBC

Banned
What if the Japanese joined the Central Powers during ww1? How would this effect the Entente in Eastern Asia and the Pacific?

Like all these, a lot depends on the POD. For reasons that others mention below, I have trouble seeing Japan joining the CP early in the war without a big prewar POD. I can see later in the war in an opportunistic manner. So I will run with this one, neutral at the start, eventually joins CP when looks like CP will win. Italy in reverse. So to changes.

1) UK lacks army units need to take Tsingtao. Tsingtao will hold indefinitely. Naval aspect is interesting. UK has the fleet need to suppress Tsingtao, but UK has tendency to hoard fleet to protect home island, so I can see all types of ATL here. I probably would go with lots of older British cruisers in area combined with lots of AMC and a few sortie by German fleet. While interesting to me, it is largely indecisive.

2) I think this means ANZAC forces stay in theater. This may well cancel Gallipoli. Or not. The UK battlecruisers are ideal for flag ship to stop Germans, so can see a few of them permanently in the Pacific area leading British Cruiser squadrons.

3) Might see less Indian troops used in Africa and Europe.

4) Not joining Entente will weaken alliance with UK. UK advisers leave at some point.

5) So we have to get Japan in war. Russia was doing badly over summer of 1915. Maybe add a worse Gallipoli tried with fewer troops to trigger Japan entering war. Russia does not really have a lot of troops to spare, so I expect good Japanese success in the east. There is enough time to have prepared to take UK possession such as Hong Kong. Also enough time for UK to have reinforced. Or not.

6) USA turns much more pro-Entente. USA and Japan are oil and water in this time period.

So you can write ATL where Entente win quicker to CP victory ATL.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
I'm not sure how that would happen, but if it did it would depend on Japanese objectives. If they mainly focused on Vladivostok and the Trans-Siberian Railway they could try to avoid direct conflict with the British and the French. Or maybe they could go after Indochina or Malaysia which would probably mean all ANZAC and Indian troops would be instead focused on fighting the Japanese which could have dramatic effect on a few fronts, especially the ones against the Ottomans. Obviously this also depends on when Japan joins the war, if they do it early on then China probably stays out, if they do it later then they probably focus on China.

If you look at the distances, I think Malaysia is too far. Otherwise, the rest looks right.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
I was thinking about this and wanted to know - what could this earlier Pacific-Southeast Asia War look like once the US enters the war?

Depends on how the rest of it went. There are many layers of butterflies between the POD and USA entry. It could go quite badly for Japan, or it could be ok.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Well, in that case @SenatorChickpea has beat me to my explanation. Tokyo just burned her diplomatic reputation to ash and, while she might make some initial gains against the Russian Far East, she's bound to get overcome once the British, French, and Russian pacific fleets manage to co-ordinate a response. That is, unless you can manage to defeat them in detail which is a possibility. As for China, it's one place I have to add something key to the Senator's point; China is a deeply divided entity during the First World War, between the Constitutional Protection Movement, the Beijang Emperor, the various warlord cliques, separatist states, ect. It's not going to be a unified campaign conducted against the Japanese, but rather a chaotic and highly bloody affair who's final result will probably depend on post-war mediation by the victors.

If Japan loses though... the Kami have mercy on her soul.

IMO, if Japan joins the CP, Japan will avoid fighting China proper. We are looking at a campaign to take the Russian Far East which will consume most of the Japanese land forces. The need to defend Taiwan. The desire to take European holdings like Hong Kong. Japan is likely to do everything possible to keep China out of the war, up to and including major concessions, if needed.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Japan burns more than its reputation doing this. They had just taken delivery of the four Kongo class battle cruisers from British shipyards. Those were hardly shaken down and still had British engineering consultants helping bring them up to operational readiness. Most of Japans fleet had been built in the UK and they were dependent on the Brits for at least part of the machinery spares Japans industry was not yet making.

Japans cargo fleet was undersized and they were dependent on foreign flagged ships to make up the gap. Not only were a large portion of those British or Commonwealth flagged, but those which were not were usually nations favoring Britain, and dependent on the London banks.

That last brings us to a ugly little problem for Japan. It was heavily dependent on the British banks for long and short term operating capitol, and for international transactions. The instant it declares war on Britain, or hints in might the Japanese accounts in Londons banks are 'frozen' and Japans economy has huge gaps in its cash flow. They can try to make this up in New York, but the bankers had concerns about Japans credit 1904-1905 and are liable to be cautious again. So, a month or two after a DoW on Britain:

1. Japans banks are having severe difficulty servicing debt, loaning to business, or servicing major international transactions.

2. Japans imports/exports are severely disrupted, never mind the threat of blockade. Just losing access to British controlled merchant ships is near as bad as a blockade.

3. Navy is having to struggle through setting up a long term program to replace British industry as a source of parts and maintiannce for its war ships.

4. Japans participation may draw the US into the war sooner. Wilson somehow managed to get the US to the point of invading Mexico twice relating to involvement with Germany. Japan was not exactly considered a friend to the US, despite Roosevelts efforts, and there had been one War Scare in 1907.

5. Even if the US does not enter the war until 1917 Japan is really screwed at this point, its economy in tatters, a fleet it cant completely keep running, industry stalled for lack of the raw materials controlled by its enemies. At the peace conference Japan is going to get nailed to the wall and left to dry.

You are overstating the case. The German merchant fleet is dis proportionately located in the Pacific. IOTL, the UK merchant fleet largely withdrew from this area for the war effort. The German fleet went to neutral ports or were captured. ITTL, the merchant shipping is not likely worse than OTL.

Presumably, the Japanese get the UK advisers out of the country before the war starts. And gets their fleet ready. IMO, we see a 1915 entry by Japan. They waited til October or so to begin major operations IOTL, I don't see them attacking the Russian Far East in October 1914. They likely wait til spring or summer.

1) Yes, Japan may not service its debt, but this will not draw them out of the war. Yet there is a solution. Like UK loans kept France and Italy in the war, German loans will keep the Japanese in the war. Likely by the same mechanism, liquidating German assets in the Americas. It is a fascinating ATL where the Germans win WW1 but have worse financial situation than the British.

2) The Pacific trade will collapse ITTL, like OTL.

3) True, especially if the USA is not trading with Japan.

4) Yes, this is very true. If Japan does major operations south of Taiwan, this risk skyrockets. The best strategy for Japan is to try to take the Russian Far East, stay out of China, and be defensive in the south.

5) This could be true. Or Japan can be importing enough via USA via German credit. Hard to call on this one. And it is not so clear the USA will enter the war. USW may not happen much like OTL. Germany might follow cruiser rules. By 1917, the CP might be clearly winning the war. Just hard to call. To give one example, the best Russian strategy is to fall back to Siberia and focus on Germany first. The Far East can be regained late in the war. But just like Japan might well follow a strategy that brings the USA in the war, the Tsar might well send too many forces to the east. So lets say we see an ATL where the UK replaces the ANZAC kept in the Pacific with a few divisions from the western front. The German offensive in 1915 in the east last a few weeks longer. Russia moves an army or two east compared to OTL. It is not clear that important events IOTL such as the Brusilov Offensive are successful. We could easily enter the winter of 1916/17 where Austria is still strong, Ottomans are doing a bit better, Romania did not enter the war, and USW is not resumed. Easy CP win.

Of course, there are enough layers of butterflies, we could have 100's of other scenarios. I just don't think you can call it with the level of preciseness that you do.

These are my thoughts, anyway.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Well, I'll put up the (highly unlikely) scenario in which I think this is actually achieved, because the details here are important.

First off, Japan is going to need to kick off the war with a "Pearl Harbor" style attack on a major concentration of the Entente's naval assets in the Western Pacific; a tricky thing due to the fact that sending out a large naval task force is going to be noticed, and staging an assault on a fleet in a major defended harbor without air power is going to be a bloody hard affair at best. Maybe if there's some co-ordination ahead of time you pull it off with Von Spee getting a "Pied Piper" trail of pursuing vessels and feigning an attempt to make a run for Tsingtao and having the Imperial Japanese Navy spring an ambush. This would help achieve local superiority for a limited time, as well stoke fears in the Pacific holdings of the Entente powers that could make them more skittish to re-direct forces from the region toward's Europe, tying down a greater number of troops (Largely ANZAC's and Raj forces), giving the Japanese enough wiggle room to conduct offensive operations and facilitating a knock-on effect I'll get to later.

On land, the Russian Pacific ports that connect the Trans-Siberian route to commerical traffic from across the Pacific need to be cut off. This would tighten the noose around Russian commerce one notch tighter (As the Germans cut off Baltic traffic and the Ottomans cut off Black Sea traffic) and isolate any attempts by Czarist troops to regain territory or hold garrisons from their logistical base, making any such attempt wither on the vine and removing a potential front for the Japanese. Ultimately, the Siberian front is likely to be a short duration one; likely with the end result being the heavy fortification of a key hub somewhere along the Trans-Siberian line to blunt and decimate any Russian attempts to push back, leaving Manchuria to safely fall under Japanese hegemony (Likely under the direct control of a backed Clique)

Another key factor is they're going to have to get a friendly government (or series of governments) to gain the plurality of power in China; I'd say your best bet is Anti-Monarchist Beijang generals, who you can back in a coup against Yuan once he tries to put himself on the throne, since the C.P.M is too far away and not very sympathetic towards Japanese hegemonic asperations on the mainland. Getting the organize military forces on their side, they gain a useful baton to point threateningly at the British and French possessions; even if they aren't actually going to seize them (Though they very well may attack the Treaty Ports), the sheer size would be enough of a threat to limit Entente desires to stage an offensive or supplies for one out of them. Combined with the troublesome expanses of the Pacific to the east, Tokyo then has a fairly secure perimeter behind which she can prepare for the next offensive stage.

In order to do much more than this, the knock-on effect of Britain not deploying her Asiatic forces West is going to have to occur; the Ottoman Suez Expedition hits an unprepared Egypt and is successful in seizing the Canal and sabotaging/demolishing the Locks; throwing a monkey wrench in Britain and France's lifeline to their Asiatic colonies (and possibly causing the Ottoman Jihad declaration to start to hold water if it triggers an uprising in Egypt). With the Entente route to the Pacific lengthened considerably, Japan's period of local superiority is extended, and the shock triggers some modest shift in American capital loans from being made available to Britain and France to Japan (Which is combined with German-style "funny money" bookkeeping policies to lengthen the fuse on the financial timebomb). At this point, the Japanese can, if they're smart, probably have enough material stored up for one major expedition against a colonial position: French Indochina, perhaps, though it'd probably not be able to total displace the French positions. Still, it might weaken them enough to get a Pro-CP uprising in certain regions and break effective French control over the region, with her remaining military forces bottled up in a few strongpoints.

If all these peices fall into place, the US stays out, and the CP wins a negotiated peace in Europe (Russia collapses slightly quicker, the Ottomans are in a far better position, greater unrest in the Entente colonies... you could get this by late 1917-early 1918 even with the limitation of other butterflies), than Japan gets a seat at the peace conference and makes notable if still fairly modest gains in Asia; Hong Kong and Macau (Goes to them, or maybe tossed to China as a bone), recognition of the seizure of Russian assets and Japanese commercial hegemony in the North, recognition any client regeimes set up on the mainland (Be they Chinese or rump "White" puppets in the Russian Far East, reparations, and a smattering of Pacific Islands. Post-war, the nation faces major economic problems due to the war debts to its citizens coming due and a lack of access to forgien credit combining to form a liquidity crisis: probably hitting farmers extra hard as cheap rice starts coming in from the mainland and the soldiers return to production.

You are too much in the WW2 mindset.

1) There are no major UK naval assets (fleets) to be attacked in the Pacific. A Pearl Harbor event is unlikely.

2) Air power is still in its infancy. Any attack on a naval base will be primarily surface ships. i.e. BB and CA shelling a port with some seaplanes are scouts.

3) Ottoman Suez operation is still a long shot ITTL. Plausible, but a long shot. And UK will likely drive Ottomans back in counter attack within a few months if this attack is successful. You are overstating the case here.

Rest of post looks reasonable.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
I'm frankly embarrassed that I didn't even think about just how dependent Japan was on the City of London, to say nothing of the merchant shipping issue.


It also hasn't been addressed in the thread yet by anyone who thinks Japan could win an early Pacific War.

Let's grant that Japan maintains naval supremacy (not hard,) neutralises China (harder,) keeps her shipping lines open (harder still) and somehow secures a strategic perimeter in south-east Asia (frankly I don't see how this is possible.)


How does Japan pay for any of this? The militarists had huge difficulty keeping the economy functional in the Pacific War, and that was coming from the base of a much more developed economy and richer starting imperial possessions.

They've cut themselves off from London, Berlin can't aid them and they're certainly not going to be floating any loans in New York given just how much they'll have sparked a Yellow Peril payout. They won't be able to run a plunder economy because outside a few Guano islands and whatever parts of the Far East they take off Russia, there's nothing to plunder.

So again: why would they start this war, how would they fight it, how would they keep anything they gained (even in the event of a CP victory, the first thing Britain and probably France will do is go east for a bit of revanche, and the US almost certainly enters this theatre at least)- and how do they pay for it?

I think Japan could win. Japan could also lose, but let's try the Japan wins.

Scenario. Japan goes to war in October 1914 or so. UK decides not to reinforce Pacific but deal with Japan after German is defeat. So what happens.

1) Japan fleet simply outweighs the Entente forces.

2) Japan can do reinforced division size attack in October. The forces used at Tsingtao should be enough to take Hong Kong, unless I have missed some major UK land formations.

3) British decide not to send fleet (read older cruisers) to Pacific. It is an AMC type war. Some British subs but limited numbers used and they follow cruiser rules. Sea Lanes kept open.

4) USA trades with Japan for high prices using loans from Germany.

5) I doubt Japan is thinking that much about SE Asia, but maybe something like taking Indochina is possible.

This type of ATL can be an Japanese win. You get a much different looking Japan after Russia collapses. Japan will not be China focused, but will be focused on the former Russian Far East. The UK, USA, and Australia will be hostile. Japan will be dependent in peace time on the German industrial might. Easy to write a win for Japan here. Also, very, very easy to write a loss. Send all the UK BC to the pacific along with newer cruisers and the Japanese navy struggles excluding where the main fleet sails. Send a few QE's, and Japan main fleet struggles.
 
You are too much in the WW2 mindset.

1) There are no major UK naval assets (fleets) to be attacked in the Pacific. A Pearl Harbor event is unlikely.

2) Air power is still in its infancy. Any attack on a naval base will be primarily surface ships. i.e. BB and CA shelling a port with some seaplanes are scouts.

3) Ottoman Suez operation is still a long shot ITTL. Plausible, but a long shot. And UK will likely drive Ottomans back in counter attack within a few months if this attack is successful. You are overstating the case here.

Rest of post looks reasonable.

I fully agree with all your points; indeed, I aknowledged them in my original post (I pointed out air power was still in its infancy, making attacking a major port problematic. That you'd need to do some fancy manuvering in order to get a large enough concentration of Entente naval vessels to make the initial attack worth it, and that the Ottoman expedition is dependent on the British not having Asiatic forces to re-deploy to Egypt: Indian troops WERE key in the efforts they made historically to bolster the garrison in Egypt.) The entire scenario is unlikely, but since I actually had to have a Japanese Victory scenario in order to answer twisteregular's question I did have to take some liberties.
 
Like all these, a lot depends on the POD. For reasons that others mention below, I have trouble seeing Japan joining the CP early in the war without a big prewar POD. I can see later in the war in an opportunistic manner. So I will run with this one, neutral at the start, eventually joins CP when looks like CP will win. Italy in reverse. So to changes.

1) UK lacks army units need to take Tsingtao. Tsingtao will hold indefinitely. Naval aspect is interesting. UK has the fleet need to suppress Tsingtao, but UK has tendency to hoard fleet to protect home island, so I can see all types of ATL here. I probably would go with lots of older British cruisers in area combined with lots of AMC and a few sortie by German fleet. While interesting to me, it is largely indecisive.

2) I think this means ANZAC forces stay in theater. This may well cancel Gallipoli. Or not. The UK battlecruisers are ideal for flag ship to stop Germans, so can see a few of them permanently in the Pacific area leading British Cruiser squadrons.

3) Might see less Indian troops used in Africa and Europe.

4) Not joining Entente will weaken alliance with UK. UK advisers leave at some point.

5) So we have to get Japan in war. Russia was doing badly over summer of 1915. Maybe add a worse Gallipoli tried with fewer troops to trigger Japan entering war. Russia does not really have a lot of troops to spare, so I expect good Japanese success in the east. There is enough time to have prepared to take UK possession such as Hong Kong. Also enough time for UK to have reinforced. Or not.

6) USA turns much more pro-Entente. USA and Japan are oil and water in this time period.

So you can write ATL where Entente win quicker to CP victory ATL.

First I cannot see Japan joining the CPs where Britain is a belligerent without more departures and the only one late enough to not offer yet more far reaching butterflies is a shift in German strategy as has been discussed at length under the scenario of not invading Belgium. Although in that discussion the possibility of non-belligerent Britain exists the scenario offers Japan a window of inaction that might steer her from co-belligerent to Entente friendly neutral and as you outline open to a switch once things look more obviously in the CPs favor. And this might be one of the best outlines for a Japan joining the CP despite the UK at war.

The debate in Japan's ruling cliques was whether monarchical Germany was stronger than democratic Britain, at bottom which was a better model and guide to expanding Japan while modernizing into a co-equal industrial and military power. Obviously a Britain not at war, a Germany more victorious or a sentiment that the democratic Europeans are going to lose shifts Japan, but I think this balance is from war for Japan's interests coinciding with Britain's to non-belligerency that may become Japan fighting for her ambitions as the CPs offer opportunity to act. Thus in this scenario I would first argue we need a Britain that does not goad Japan into war with Germany, or a Japan not as willing to take up the task, and look thereafter to contain her ambitions as Germany is distracted by the war in Europe, slowly shifting her ambitions towards Russia instead.


Russia holds the most obvious threat and most obvious prizes in Asia that Japan has been working for. Yet the pro-German faction is also pro-Russian, leaving us the Chinese as the next most obvious place to expand but that threatens the British position and next the French and ultimately the American. So I might argue that here Japan rides the fence until the tide is obviously turning. If Germany was fighting defensively in the West then Russia is taking a heavier hammer, the perception of the war is going to be very different, the march East is going to feel more compelling to avoid war with Germany. The danger is how this encourages the Army to move Japan into China proper, without China the Army is far less important, its mission ancillary and ultimately as a faction it has not simply lost influence but relevance.


My thinking is we get Japan marching into the Russian concessions as Russia falters and falls down but not much more and that takes some wind out of the American sails. The bigger butterfly will be whether we get a 21 Demands or some better Sino-Japanese partnership, at least in place of the heavy handed Demands version, it may not last but it might reshape how Japan tries to edge out the Europeans in future. And if we have Europe weakened but not destroyed, things in Asia will be very different, Japan may remain a far better ally to court with more ambitious Empires vying.
 
The problem is that they don’t stand to gain much.

Yes, the Entente territories in Asia are more valuable to Japan than Germany’s possessions.

They are also vastly better defended. The Manchuria campaign in 1905 was no picnic- here, Tokyo needs to fight it again while also taking on the Raj, French Indochina, Australia and New Zealand.
In our timeline, China made noises about joining the Entente but its overtures were quashed by Japan. Here, that won’t happen. While the various Chinese armies were hardly fearsome, that massively complicates the supply situation for Japan as the Entente gains a massive staging ground.

Worse still, the Japanese betraying the alliance will play into the very worse fears of White societies. The treacherous Asians stabbing their patrons in the back? Savagery!
It won’t bring the US into the war, but it will certainly strengthen pro-Entente feeling. If and when the US does enter the war, Japan simply can’t beat them.

Lastly, what happens of the Japanese do everything right, and have a run of good luck, and take Vladivostok and Hong Kong and sundry islands... and the Germans lose?

What happens if the navies of Britain, France and the US can suddenly be brought to bear against a small, second tier power who no longer has a single ally in the region and can’t supply itself?


No. Better to keep to the alliance, and pick low hanging fruit. It doesn’t taste as sweet, but you don’t choke on it.

For me the key is Britain, only she had the capacity to project power, hers was the only true global blue water navy, she had the basing needed to get a fleet to Asia and sustain it, from there support any form of ground fighting needed. The HSF simply was not built to reach beyond the North Sea, a foray into the Atlantic would be daunting. Japan can really only take on a defeated power, so Russia or France, neither can oppose her Navy and only Russia could send an Army East. If we get Japan to view things as too risky early, then the next low hanging fruit would be Manchuria, and if Russia falls aside as Japan is riding the fence, that is the best opportunity, Germany looks too strong to fight, it will support Japan and the Entente is distracted or foolish enough not to see the implications until too late. So really a neutral Japan that picks off Russia in the East, not actually a co-belligerent with Germany.
 
You are overstating the case. ...
1) Yes, Japan may not service its debt, but this will not draw them out of the war. Yet there is a solution. Like UK loans kept France and Italy in the war, German loans will keep the Japanese in the war. Likely by the same mechanism, liquidating German assets in the Americas. It is a fascinating ATL where the Germans win WW1 but have worse financial situation than the British. ....

I was unaware Germany had the depth of capitol for that sort of financing. Maybe I'm wrong but the numbers I've seen in the past look a bit small compared to the deep pools of capitol in London or New York.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
I was unaware Germany had the depth of capitol for that sort of financing. Maybe I'm wrong but the numbers I've seen in the past look a bit small compared to the deep pools of capitol in London or New York.

The UK had to finance both its imports and cover both France and Italy imports need. ITTL, Germany will not be able to import and Germany will need only to loan to one country, not two. Likely the capital is available, but at a heavy post war price in terms of standard of living.
 
I'd have to take a closer look at the numbers. The descriptions of German capitol, debt, ect... to 1914 don't support the idea of a hefty pool of capitol available in German banks.

Beyond that where would japan purchase its imports? Between the entente nations a very large part of the global market is now closed to Japan. If things go sour with the US Japan is scrounging for machine tools, alloys, chemicals, rice, in corners like Peru, or Thailand.
 
The Only attempt to ask Japan to Join the Central powers
was made by German Foreign Secretary Arthur Zimmermann in January 1917

And Even that was a Indirect proposal to Mexico to join WW1 on Germany site and that Mexican "contacted" Empire of Japan about a collaboration with Germany
The entire Thing was on initiative of Zimmermann, WITHOUT consultation or Permission of German High Command or the Emperor !

Zimmermann Telegram let to USA Declaration of War on Germany
in Mean time Empire of Japan show quite active in part Of German Colonies in Pacific and Asia
because Japan entered the war on the side of the Entente Powers on 23 August 1914
They occupy the German coaling port of Qingdao and seized Germany's Micronesian colonies

For Japan it was Win-Win situation to join the Entente Powers, they gain easy German territory for there Empire...
 

NoMommsen

Donor
... once the British, French, and Russian pacific fleets manage to co-ordinate a response.
...
What 'fleets do you talk about ?

What naval forces were there in the pacific available for the Entente aside the japanes fleet ?
The latter being the main reasons - aside from "everything for home waters" - for Spee to actually loolinkg to leave the Pacific.

HMAS Australia was 'only' a rather second though for leaving the theatre.
The french cruisers there only very few and uotclassed by Spee's squadron.
The russians only had a few old destroyers at all.
 
What 'fleets do you talk about ?

What naval forces were there in the pacific available for the Entente aside the japanes fleet ?
The latter being the main reasons - aside from "everything for home waters" - for Spee to actually loolinkg to leave the Pacific.

HMAS Australia was 'only' a rather second though for leaving the theatre.
The french cruisers there only very few and uotclassed by Spee's squadron.
The russians only had a few old destroyers at all.

When I consider a non-belligerent Britain I foresee the Germans raiding more profusely in Asia versus the French. That weakens them in Europe or savages them in Asia. If we get an active German cruiser war in Asia then I think we prove to Japan who is the stronger foe. Even if the results are minimal, the squadron is slowly lost, Japan will likely see the Germans are more martial and fearless, qualities they admire. We might get the groundwork for Japan to eye French holdings as low hanging fruit. It might also teach Japan a better lesson regarding trade protection and trade war at sea, a strange butterfly for her navy. Again, I do not think Japan joins the CPs but it likely shifts towards a pro-CP neutrality and there is room to become CP friendly post-war.
 
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