WI - Japan joins the CP?

What if the Japanese joined the Central Powers during ww1? How would this effect the Entente in Eastern Asia and the Pacific?

That depends: is she renegading on the Anglo-Japanese alliance in order to pounce on Russian interests, or is this a scenario in which Britain has stayed neutral for at least a few weeks?
 
I'm not sure how that would happen, but if it did it would depend on Japanese objectives. If they mainly focused on Vladivostok and the Trans-Siberian Railway they could try to avoid direct conflict with the British and the French. Or maybe they could go after Indochina or Malaysia which would probably mean all ANZAC and Indian troops would be instead focused on fighting the Japanese which could have dramatic effect on a few fronts, especially the ones against the Ottomans. Obviously this also depends on when Japan joins the war, if they do it early on then China probably stays out, if they do it later then they probably focus on China.
 
I'm thinking the former but I don't know much about the role of the Japanese during ww1.
They basically seized all the German possessions in China and the Pacific, they did help the British escort a significant amount of their ships, they attempted to expand their influence in China, and they made up the majority of the forces of the Allied intervention in Siberia during the Russian Civil War.
 
They basically seized all the German possessions in China and the Pacific, they did help the British escort a significant amount of their ships, they attempted to expand their influence in China, and they made up the majority of the forces of the Allied intervention in Siberia during the Russian Civil War.
How about the possibility of Japan joining the CP?
 
The problem is that they don’t stand to gain much.

Yes, the Entente territories in Asia are more valuable to Japan than Germany’s possessions.

They are also vastly better defended. The Manchuria campaign in 1905 was no picnic- here, Tokyo needs to fight it again while also taking on the Raj, French Indochina, Australia and New Zealand.
In our timeline, China made noises about joining the Entente but its overtures were quashed by Japan. Here, that won’t happen. While the various Chinese armies were hardly fearsome, that massively complicates the supply situation for Japan as the Entente gains a massive staging ground.

Worse still, the Japanese betraying the alliance will play into the very worse fears of White societies. The treacherous Asians stabbing their patrons in the back? Savagery!
It won’t bring the US into the war, but it will certainly strengthen pro-Entente feeling. If and when the US does enter the war, Japan simply can’t beat them.

Lastly, what happens of the Japanese do everything right, and have a run of good luck, and take Vladivostok and Hong Kong and sundry islands... and the Germans lose?

What happens if the navies of Britain, France and the US can suddenly be brought to bear against a small, second tier power who no longer has a single ally in the region and can’t supply itself?


No. Better to keep to the alliance, and pick low hanging fruit. It doesn’t taste as sweet, but you don’t choke on it.
 
It won’t bring the US into the war, but it will certainly strengthen pro-Entente feeling. If and when the US does enter the war, Japan simply can’t beat them.
I was thinking about this and wanted to know - what could this earlier Pacific-Southeast Asia War look like once the US enters the war?
 
I'm thinking the former but I don't know much about the role of the Japanese during ww1.

Well, in that case @SenatorChickpea has beat me to my explanation. Tokyo just burned her diplomatic reputation to ash and, while she might make some initial gains against the Russian Far East, she's bound to get overcome once the British, French, and Russian pacific fleets manage to co-ordinate a response. That is, unless you can manage to defeat them in detail which is a possibility. As for China, it's one place I have to add something key to the Senator's point; China is a deeply divided entity during the First World War, between the Constitutional Protection Movement, the Beijang Emperor, the various warlord cliques, separatist states, ect. It's not going to be a unified campaign conducted against the Japanese, but rather a chaotic and highly bloody affair who's final result will probably depend on post-war mediation by the victors.

If Japan loses though... the Kami have mercy on her soul.
 
Japan burns more than its reputation doing this. They had just taken delivery of the four Kongo class battle cruisers from British shipyards. Those were hardly shaken down and still had British engineering consultants helping bring them up to operational readiness. Most of Japans fleet had been built in the UK and they were dependent on the Brits for at least part of the machinery spares Japans industry was not yet making.

Japans cargo fleet was undersized and they were dependent on foreign flagged ships to make up the gap. Not only were a large portion of those British or Commonwealth flagged, but those which were not were usually nations favoring Britain, and dependent on the London banks.

That last brings us to a ugly little problem for Japan. It was heavily dependent on the British banks for long and short term operating capitol, and for international transactions. The instant it declares war on Britain, or hints in might the Japanese accounts in Londons banks are 'frozen' and Japans economy has huge gaps in its cash flow. They can try to make this up in New York, but the bankers had concerns about Japans credit 1904-1905 and are liable to be cautious again. So, a month or two after a DoW on Britain:

1. Japans banks are having severe difficulty servicing debt, loaning to business, or servicing major international transactions.

2. Japans imports/exports are severely disrupted, never mind the threat of blockade. Just losing access to British controlled merchant ships is near as bad as a blockade.

3. Navy is having to struggle through setting up a long term program to replace British industry as a source of parts and maintiannce for its war ships.

4. Japans participation may draw the US into the war sooner. Wilson somehow managed to get the US to the point of invading Mexico twice relating to involvement with Germany. Japan was not exactly considered a friend to the US, despite Roosevelts efforts, and there had been one War Scare in 1907.

5. Even if the US does not enter the war until 1917 Japan is really screwed at this point, its economy in tatters, a fleet it cant completely keep running, industry stalled for lack of the raw materials controlled by its enemies. At the peace conference Japan is going to get nailed to the wall and left to dry.
 
The only way I can see the Japanese on the CP side is that GB stay neutral because Germany avoid Schlieffen for a balance approach slightly more focused to the east push and defensive in the west, at this point some Russian admiral decide to shell and attack Japanese warships mistaking them for the German Pacific fleet, (Dogger bank incident like) and at this point you have the Russian and Japanese escalate the issue thanks to the Russian garbage diplomacy. Now you have a cobelligerant Japan on the CP side and London with and extralarge headache and mostly assured neutrality
 
In this scenarios you have the Japanese fast occupation of karafuto, the siege of vladivostock that I don't have the slightest idea how well could evolve, anyways this will end with huge pressure from GB to force the peace and the Japanese will probably stay in karafuto and will pretend reparation. No future intervention from Japan unless GB is in and Germany is losing.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
They basically seized all the German possessions in China and the Pacific,...
No
'Only' Kiautschou and some of the Mikronesian isles/corall-reefs were occupied by the japanese.
By far the bigger parts (in terms of usable land) of german possessions on New-Guinea and Samoa, also the phospahte rich Nauru were taken by australian and New Zealand forces.
... they did help the British escort a significant amount of their ships,...
Yes
...they attempted to expand their influence in China,...
YES
Ever heard of the 21 demands ?
and they made up the majority of the forces of the Allied intervention in Siberia during the Russian Civil War.
Yes ... and they were the last rather reluctantly leaving from there.
 

cpip

Gone Fishin'
How about the possibility of Japan joining the CP?

It is possible. Internal Japanese politics was volatile at this point: there was a faction which was in favor of Germany, and who strongly believed Germany and the Central Powers were going to steamroll the Entente and the whole thing would be over within a year or so, and they wanted to make sure they were on the winning team.

They were outmaneuvered by a very pro-British Foreign Minister who was simultaneously intent on breaking the power of the old guard, where some of the most pro-German (and, also, anti-democratic) leaders were.

Interestingly, the pro-German leaders (most prominently Prince Yamagata) were also pro-Russian at this point: they were in favor of patching up the bygones of the Russo-Japanese War (and they had spearheaded several agreements and understandings with the Russian government post-war to that effect), and they hoped to forge some kind of German-Russian-Japanese axis.
 
No
'Only' Kiautschou and some of the Mikronesian isles/corall-reefs were occupied by the japanese.
By far the bigger parts (in terms of usable land) of german possessions on New-Guinea and Samoa, also the phospahte rich Nauru were taken by australian and New Zealand forces.
Yes
YES
Ever heard of the 21 demands ?
Yes ... and they were the last rather reluctantly leaving from there.
Thanks, I shouldn't of said "all". That would be another thing, would Japan still make the 21 demands if they were at war with the Entente?
P.S. Do you know if there's a timeline where China accepts the demands in Group 5?
 
Let's say CP Japan wins in the Southeast Asia-Pacific theatre - what are the effects and aftermath?

Well, I'll put up the (highly unlikely) scenario in which I think this is actually achieved, because the details here are important.

First off, Japan is going to need to kick off the war with a "Pearl Harbor" style attack on a major concentration of the Entente's naval assets in the Western Pacific; a tricky thing due to the fact that sending out a large naval task force is going to be noticed, and staging an assault on a fleet in a major defended harbor without air power is going to be a bloody hard affair at best. Maybe if there's some co-ordination ahead of time you pull it off with Von Spee getting a "Pied Piper" trail of pursuing vessels and feigning an attempt to make a run for Tsingtao and having the Imperial Japanese Navy spring an ambush. This would help achieve local superiority for a limited time, as well stoke fears in the Pacific holdings of the Entente powers that could make them more skittish to re-direct forces from the region toward's Europe, tying down a greater number of troops (Largely ANZAC's and Raj forces), giving the Japanese enough wiggle room to conduct offensive operations and facilitating a knock-on effect I'll get to later.

On land, the Russian Pacific ports that connect the Trans-Siberian route to commerical traffic from across the Pacific need to be cut off. This would tighten the noose around Russian commerce one notch tighter (As the Germans cut off Baltic traffic and the Ottomans cut off Black Sea traffic) and isolate any attempts by Czarist troops to regain territory or hold garrisons from their logistical base, making any such attempt wither on the vine and removing a potential front for the Japanese. Ultimately, the Siberian front is likely to be a short duration one; likely with the end result being the heavy fortification of a key hub somewhere along the Trans-Siberian line to blunt and decimate any Russian attempts to push back, leaving Manchuria to safely fall under Japanese hegemony (Likely under the direct control of a backed Clique)

Another key factor is they're going to have to get a friendly government (or series of governments) to gain the plurality of power in China; I'd say your best bet is Anti-Monarchist Beijang generals, who you can back in a coup against Yuan once he tries to put himself on the throne, since the C.P.M is too far away and not very sympathetic towards Japanese hegemonic asperations on the mainland. Getting the organize military forces on their side, they gain a useful baton to point threateningly at the British and French possessions; even if they aren't actually going to seize them (Though they very well may attack the Treaty Ports), the sheer size would be enough of a threat to limit Entente desires to stage an offensive or supplies for one out of them. Combined with the troublesome expanses of the Pacific to the east, Tokyo then has a fairly secure perimeter behind which she can prepare for the next offensive stage.

In order to do much more than this, the knock-on effect of Britain not deploying her Asiatic forces West is going to have to occur; the Ottoman Suez Expedition hits an unprepared Egypt and is successful in seizing the Canal and sabotaging/demolishing the Locks; throwing a monkey wrench in Britain and France's lifeline to their Asiatic colonies (and possibly causing the Ottoman Jihad declaration to start to hold water if it triggers an uprising in Egypt). With the Entente route to the Pacific lengthened considerably, Japan's period of local superiority is extended, and the shock triggers some modest shift in American capital loans from being made available to Britain and France to Japan (Which is combined with German-style "funny money" bookkeeping policies to lengthen the fuse on the financial timebomb). At this point, the Japanese can, if they're smart, probably have enough material stored up for one major expedition against a colonial position: French Indochina, perhaps, though it'd probably not be able to total displace the French positions. Still, it might weaken them enough to get a Pro-CP uprising in certain regions and break effective French control over the region, with her remaining military forces bottled up in a few strongpoints.

If all these peices fall into place, the US stays out, and the CP wins a negotiated peace in Europe (Russia collapses slightly quicker, the Ottomans are in a far better position, greater unrest in the Entente colonies... you could get this by late 1917-early 1918 even with the limitation of other butterflies), than Japan gets a seat at the peace conference and makes notable if still fairly modest gains in Asia; Hong Kong and Macau (Goes to them, or maybe tossed to China as a bone), recognition of the seizure of Russian assets and Japanese commercial hegemony in the North, recognition any client regeimes set up on the mainland (Be they Chinese or rump "White" puppets in the Russian Far East, reparations, and a smattering of Pacific Islands. Post-war, the nation faces major economic problems due to the war debts to its citizens coming due and a lack of access to forgien credit combining to form a liquidity crisis: probably hitting farmers extra hard as cheap rice starts coming in from the mainland and the soldiers return to production.
 
I'm not sure how that would happen, but if it did it would depend on Japanese objectives. If they mainly focused on Vladivostok and the Trans-Siberian Railway they could try to avoid direct conflict with the British and the French. Or maybe they could go after Indochina or Malaysia which would probably mean all ANZAC and Indian troops would be instead focused on fighting the Japanese which could have dramatic effect on a few fronts, especially the ones against the Ottomans. Obviously this also depends on when Japan joins the war, if they do it early on then China probably stays out, if they do it later then they probably focus on China.
Maybe also in Neuguinea ?
 
It is possible. Internal Japanese politics was volatile at this point: there was a faction which was in favor of Germany, and who strongly believed Germany and the Central Powers were going to steamroll the Entente and the whole thing would be over within a year or so, and they wanted to make sure they were on the winning team.

They were outmaneuvered by a very pro-British Foreign Minister who was simultaneously intent on breaking the power of the old guard, where some of the most pro-German (and, also, anti-democratic) leaders were.

Interestingly, the pro-German leaders (most prominently Prince Yamagata) were also pro-Russian at this point: they were in favor of patching up the bygones of the Russo-Japanese War (and they had spearheaded several agreements and understandings with the Russian government post-war to that effect), and they hoped to forge some kind of German-Russian-Japanese axis.

There was actually a very amusing incident early on in the war where a rumor spread through Berlin that the Japanese had declared war on Russia, resulting in a celebratory mob swamping the Japanese Embassy and cheering the praises of the Empire for hours on end before the ambassador sheepishly had to inform them that no such declaration had occured. Assuming you do have a Britain Stands Aside/Perfidious Albion scenario, I have no doubt by that time the Pro-German factions in the government would have been able to make said rumor true by early September; I imagine one arguement would be that by demonstrating to Russia how useless an ally France is in the quick war to come and that Britain has shown she wasen't willing to stick out her neck for Russian interests, said Eurasian axis would be made clear as Russia's natural position post-war.
 
Top