WI Japan invades the pacific territories of the dutch and british rathar than USA

In relation to the idea of Japan declaring war on the USSR to force the UK to declare war on them, from memory didn't the Japanese come off the worst from the two minor conflicts they'd had with the USSR. The last thing they'd want if preparing for the Southern attack would be to draw the Russians into it even if it avoided the US getting involved.

Again from memory but wasn't there a situation that even in the height of the Pacific war Lend Lease was transported to Russia in Russian hulls and the Japanese didn't stop them
 
Wouldn't the USN be able to fight an undeclared war against the IJN like they were already doing against the KM? Just send their subs to attack Japanese shipping between the home islands and their new colonial possessions.
 
Japan was on the verge of financial exhaustion. By mid-1942 Japan would not have been able to pay for oil or iron from the US...or any other nation.
 
People seem to be forgetting that it was the USA pushing Japan towards war, not the UK or the Netherlands.


People seem to read about US isolationism and assume it was a general and universal idea. In reality most isolationists were firmly focused on Europe, where they believed they had been tricked into one war that was none of the USA's business and didn't want to see themselves drawn into another,
The Pacific was a completely different story; the US had large interests there and was determined to stop Japanese expansion. They would no more have ignored a Japanese invasion of Malaya and the DEI than they would the Germans invading Cuba or the Bahamas.
 
People seem to be forgetting that it was the USA pushing Japan towards war, not the UK or the Netherlands.

Without the US pressure and sanctions, why do the Japanese need a war? The British and Dutch will sell them what they need (not neeing a far eastern war on top of everyrthing else); indeed, they can probably be pressed to do it on advantageous terms or even credit.

So attacking them, while ignoring the country that is actually formenting actions against you and will be sitting on top of your LOC is rather...stupid.

The USA wasn't pushing Japan to war, Japan's endless war in China and needing resources to maintain it was pushing Japan to war.
 
If the Burma road is not cut Chinese resistance will continue to increase, the Flying Tigers were just arriving when war started and would have added extra pressure to the Japanese. 60 well trained and motivated elite American pilots would have been extra wearing for the Japanese. With OTL levels of success for those squadrons, there would have been no shortage of volunteers and unlike Iran - Contra nobody is going to be asking too many questions about how this is being financed.

So if your Japan, you have to attack Dutch Indonesia to get the oil and other strategic supplies and you have to attack the British in Burma to cut the road to isolate China.

Not attacking the U.S.A when attacking the dutch and english is a viable strategy. One day the U.S.A may or may not attack, no one could know that for sure, but at least you would be in a position to negotiate, unlike OTL where after Pearl unconditional surrender was the only option.
 
In a few months the US will be much more powerful, both in terms of naval construction nearing completion and the island bases in the Pacific.

If Japan is still forced to fight the US then...:eek:
 
In a few months the US will be much more powerful, both in terms of naval construction nearing completion and the island bases in the Pacific.

If Japan is still forced to fight the US then...:eek:

There is basically 4 choices for the Japanese in December 1941.

a) Deal with the USA and China now, withdraw to the 1937 boundries, if eduring the unendurable was hard in 1945 this is much easier. Just do what is best for your country and commit suicide about it later if you feel the need.
b) Invade British and Dutch possesions and hope the USA Congress never approves war, hope the Allies (and Soviets) are tied down long in Europe and willing to make peace with you at some point. If the U.S.A declares war on you, try option a) above, since they are too strong to attack anywhere, hopefully since Pearl didn't happen they are willing to deal.
c) Invade the Phillipines, Guam and Wake, but don't do Pearl, do a war plan orange thing and hope for the best. Maybe the U.S.A will still be willing to deal.
d) Hit the 500 pound Gorilla where it hurts and hope for the best. (Do Pearl as in OTL).
 
In my opinion, a good way to keep the Americans neutral is to have the Japanese attack the USSR.

Strangely, that probably would have guaranteed neutrality, mostly because the war would have been over so quickly. The under-armed and outdated Japanese Army would have run smack into the superior Soviet forces in Siberia, which were not drawn from to reinforce the west. A slaughter followed by a rout.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
As is often discussed here, you HAVE to plan for what your opponent could do, not what you hope he will do.

The U.S. positions in the Philippines, on Guam, and Wake all presented a clear and present danger to the Japanese strategic plan, something that utterly relied on establishing a defensive perimeter which would assure that no one would try to retake what the Lunge South had accrued or threaten the Mandates. Guam was less than 100 miles from the Jewel of the Japanese Mandates, Saipan. Wake, which was about 85% complete as a B-17 base, would have rendered the Marshalls untenable, and the Philippines stood directly on the SLOW between the Southern Resource Area and Japan.

No military officer could ignore those sorts of threats, not when planning a high risk, high reward operation where failure would mean the END for Japan as a modern military power (no oil = no fuel, no fuel = defeat in China. Defeat in China was unthinkable.)

The Japanese also knew, with 100% certainty, that within two years they would have absolutely no hope of engaging the U.S. The Two Ocean Navy Act authorized a fleet larger than any Japanese admiral had ever even dreamed of (this was, of course, the fleet that obliterated the IJN in 1944 and by the late spring of 1945 was launching massive airstrikes against Japan's Home Islands, finishing the insult by SHELLING the Home Islands from warship that were visible from Japan's beaches).

You HAVE to honor threats. Japan did.
 
The Japanese also knew, with 100% certainty, that within two years they would have absolutely no hope of engaging the U.S. The Two Ocean Navy Act authorized a fleet larger than any Japanese admiral had ever even dreamed of (this was, of course, the fleet that obliterated the IJN in 1944 and by the late spring of 1945 was launching massive airstrikes against Japan's Home Islands, finishing the insult by SHELLING the Home Islands from warship that were visible from Japan's beaches).

If the Japanese know that then declaring war on the U.S.A definitely shouldn't have been done. Relying on defeating utterly the U.S.A in a two year window was a bigger risk than relying on the U.S.A congress not to declare war after invading Indonesia.
 
There was no two year window. The official response from Japanese officers when asked how the US would actually be defeated was something on the order of commenting on the weather.
 
Relying on defeating utterly the U.S.A ...

They weren't. It was more like bloodying America's nose. The Japanese thought they could knock the USN out of commission long enough to achieve their initial goals (which they did). The long-term plan seems to have been some combination of "Americans are too cowardly to fight a long war" and "we can negotiate an agreeable settlement." That part didn't work out so much. The only thing guaranteed to shake Americans loose from our self-absorbed infighting is some outsider taking a shot at us.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
If the Japanese know that then declaring war on the U.S.A definitely shouldn't have been done. Relying on defeating utterly the U.S.A in a two year window was a bigger risk than relying on the U.S.A congress not to declare war after invading Indonesia.


The Japanese expected to present a fiat acompli to the West. As noted earlier, their goals included establishment of a defensive perimeter strong enough to dissuade any attempt to change the status quo. The Japanese actually believed that they could end the war with the U.S. by creating this sort of situation and then negotiate from a position of strength. They even planned to offer indemnity payments to the families of those killed or maimed in what they expected to be a short, sharp war.

The total lack of reality in their expectations is stunning, even 70 years after the event.
 
Top