WI Japan goes north

Replicator

Banned
WI Japan decides to move against the USSR in 1941, 1942 and 1943?The benefits of an attack in autumn 1941 would be: - Weak opposition since nearly everything the Russians had was in Europe.- Breaking the US embargo with russian resources- Avoiding a confrontation with the US for a few months or even a year.An attack in den summer of 1942 is not very likely but sill possible.Not sure if the Japanese could attack the USSR in the Summer of 1943.Would the USSR have been screwed with a Japanese Invasion in autumn 1941? And how would a Japanese Invasion in the summer of 1942 have affected the battle of the Caucasus.This is probabaly ASB but how would a Japanese Invasion in the summer of 1943 have affected the Battle of Kursk and the Sovier counter offensive?
 
They tried to go North in the late 1930's and got their asses handed to them. They didn't want to risk it again when there was mostly just howling deserted wilderness up there.
 
Hardened, well-trained and well-equipped Soviet Siberian troops?

Or ground forces who struggled with militia-level forces in China and are probably still at an interwar level in terms of overall effectiveness?

Yeah I'm gonna go with the former.
 

Sumeragi

Banned
Depends. A Japanese victory is only possible if it pulls out of China (no Manchuria is NOT China) and does not start the Pacific War. In short, pretty next to impossible.

Or ground forces who struggled with militia-level forces in China and are probably still at an interwar level in terms of overall effectiveness?
Depends. I doubt the Soviets would be considered that hardened and well-trained if fighting in the forsaken land that was China at the time.
 
Japan would have had to attack in the end of 1941 and would needed to have won against Russia in less than 2 years
Russia.
Japan entering the was in late 1941 would have stooped the Russian counter attack at Moscow in 1941 as these troops would still be held in the far east.

It would cut the Russians off from lend lease supplies from the far east leaving only the Arkhangelsk and Murmansk. for lend lease. This would have caused big problem with Russian logistics as the were very short of trucks.

Japanese army would have had a hard time against the T34 as they did not have heavy tanks and anti tank weapons were not good.


With Japan not attacking America it would delay my year the Americans going to war or America might even stay out of the conflict.

Japan would need to come to an agreemnet to share russian oil and other strategic material after Russia was beaten.
 

CalBear

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Japan goes North and they

1. Run out of oil by the fall of 1942.
2. Get their asses handed to them on a platter by the Red Army.
3. Wind up with a much less friendly Occupying Power after the war.

Japan had no choice but to go after the Southern Resource Area. They had, at the time of Pearl Harbor, under a year's oil reserves. They need oil, rubber, other raw materials, and food. All of these were available to the South. None were available in the North.

There is also a less often considered factor. The Japanese truly believed that the U.S. wouldn't fight if presented with a fiat accompli. The Japanese leadership believed that they could grab all that they needed, create a strong defensive perimeter, and create a situation that would make the U.S. unwilling to make the sacrifices needed to counter attack (they even had a plan to offer reparations to the families of Americans who died or lost personal property in what they expected to be a quick, cheap victory). This was, of course, one of the more dramatic misreads of an opponent in all of history, but it is nevertheless a fact. On the other hand, Tokyo had no doubt that the Soviets would fight to the last drop of blood.
 

CalBear

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Japan would have had to attack in the end of 1941 and would needed to have won against Russia in less than 2 years
Russia.
Japan entering the was in late 1941 would have stooped the Russian counter attack at Moscow in 1941 as these troops would still be held in the far east.

It would cut the Russians off from lend lease supplies from the far east leaving only the Arkhangelsk and Murmansk. for lend lease. This would have caused big problem with Russian logistics as the were very short of trucks.

Japanese army would have had a hard time against the T34 as they did not have heavy tanks and anti tank weapons were not good.


With Japan not attacking America it would delay my year the Americans going to war or America might even stay out of the conflict.

Japan would need to come to an agreemnet to share russian oil and other strategic material after Russia was beaten.

The troops used in the Moscow offensive did not come from the Far East Front. The Soviets kept the Far East at full strength throughout the War (even though they KNEW, thanks to Sorge et al, that the Japanese were not going to attack). The troops used to reinforce in the West came from Central Asia, not the Far East.
 
1. The Soviet Far East divisions will send the Japanese crying home to mama, there is just no damn way that an unmechanized, resource-short army like that of Imperial Japan will throw back the might of the massive Red Army and her tanks. It goes as follows: Zhukov whoops Japan, presents a stack of captured officers' katanas to Stalin, and gets the royal treatment as a hero.

2. Asia gets Soviet tenants to replace the Japanese ones in some cases. Soviets wind up nicking Hokkaido and wind up, by virtue of their control over the breadbasket of the land, quite influential over postwar Japan.

3. In short, Japan loses, in long, Uncle Joe wins.
 
The troops used in the Moscow offensive did not come from the Far East Front. The Soviets kept the Far East at full strength throughout the War (even though they KNEW, thanks to Sorge et al, that the Japanese were not going to attack). The troops used to reinforce in the West came from Central Asia, not the Far East.

Do you have any more information on how many troops the soviets used or who was in command?
 
Hardened, well-trained and well-equipped Soviet Siberian troops?

Or ground forces who struggled with militia-level forces in China and are probably still at an interwar level in terms of overall effectiveness?

Yeah I'm gonna go with the former.
The Japanese Army did not "struggle" with Chinese militias. They beat them handilly in nearly every encounter, usually inflicting nearly 10 times the deaths they suffered. They had trouble preventing counter-attacks and supply disruptions, but that is a different matter. It is no more accurate to say Japan struggled with fighting Chinese armies than it is to say the US Army "struggled" in fighting the NVA.

Anyway, yes, Japan has no choice. They had no chance to beat the Soviet military, and even they knew it. The choices were not Go North or Go South, the choice was Go South or lose everything they had gained in China.
 
Do you have any more information on how many troops the soviets used or who was in command?

Early on it was a big proving ground for Mars himself... that is to say, Georgy Zhukov.

Depends on what time this fight is going down in terms of who the Japanese are up against. If it's a serious attack (which is kind of insane since the Japanese knew they were in a bad situation to fight) then I think by virtue of his experience fighting them before, Zhukov would get the tap.

Probably hurts the war with Germany, if only because Japan is a useful distraction for the Soviet Far East divisions. The Red Army MIGHT not be able to run as roughshod over Central and Eastern Europe as historically but chances are they'll make up for that with things they take from Asia.
 

CalBear

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Do you have any more information on how many troops the soviets used or who was in command?

Where in the Far East or in the Moscow counter offensive?

If you are talking in the Far East the Red Army had four full armies (1 Special, 2 Independent Red Banner, 15, 25) in mid 1941. By 1943 it had added 1 Cavalry, 16 & 35
 
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Well, they tried to grab some land between 1932 and 1939. Let's say it was not a resounding success, even when Zhukov himself was not there.

A tank weak army simply won't prevail against an heavily mechanized one... in the middle of a steppe
 
Actually the best plan for Japan would probably be to launch hit-and-fade attacks around the border, keep those troops in Siberia tied up there so they won't get moved west, which would allow Hitler to take a bigger bite out of Russia, maybe even get to Moscow. That would require a different world-view on the part of Japan though.
 

yourworstnightmare

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1. Japan can't beat China, and have troops tied up in the Chinese theater they'd need to effectively attack the USSR.
2. There's nothing but freezing wilderness up there. Japan isn't interested. They won't get the resources they need and will be tied up fighting another war they can't win in unfriendly terrain.
 
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