In early days of Soviet Union, Lenin was willing to give up territory in return for peace. If Japan decided to stay in Siberia with support from League of Nations and Soviet lost a war with Japan like Polish Soviet war, Soviet would give up far east of Siberia to Japan. However, Stalin would plan for revenge 20 years later.
Once Nazi and Soviet pact was signed, Japan would want to distance itself from Nazi and change its foreign policy.
I don't think the Soviets would wait that long. I can see the presence of foreign armies still squatting on Russian territory speeding up the use of Five Year Plans, actually, so you might see a Soviet counteroffensive as early as 1931-32. And in the meantime, there's the question of whether Japan would still want to bear the occupation costs during the Depression, if they're not having success extracting resources.