WI: Japan First, Not Europe First

VirginiaHistoryTeacher · Mar 10, 2015

For some reason, Hitler decides not to declare war on the United States despite Lend Lease. FDR decides to jump on Japan with both feet. How does that theater go? How long does it last? Does island hopping still happen as in OTL since there was considerable separation geographically and militarily between the major axis powers?

Carl Schwamberger · Mar 10, 2015

It means carriers are one by one shifted from the Atlantic a few weeks earlier for each. the same for other parts of the fleet. We have to keep in mind there was a undeclared naval war going on the the Atlantic, so if that is not waved away a significant part of the fleet would remain there.

If the US ins not sending a corps to Britain, or participating in anything like Op Torch, ten there will be more ground and air forces to oppose Japan. However using them requires more cargo ships. Also the specialized fleet train that aided the central Pacific offensive was not ready until the autum of 1943, nor were the first of the Essex class carriers & their air wings. While a bit more could be done in the S Pacific in 1942 & the first half of 1943 a really strong offence deep into Japans territory is not possible until the latter portion of 1943.

Meanwhile 70% of the US military power sits in the US, unable to contribute.

Noscoper · Mar 10, 2015

Us would still join the against germany by min to late 1942

e of pi · Mar 10, 2015

VirginiaHistoryTeacher said:
For some reason, Hitler decides not to declare war on the United States despite Lend Lease. FDR decides to jump on Japan with both feet. How does that theater go? How long does it last? Does island hopping still happen as in OTL since there was considerable separation geographically and militarily between the major axis powers?

It'd need to go about as OTL, roughly--the limiting factor was the availability of the naval power and corresponding fleet train to batter back the IJN, then take the fight to Japan itself over various island garrisons and then the mainland. That's difficult to do much faster without the US' massive superiority in naval strength existing earlier, which in turn either means an earlier PoD (more Yorktowns, earlier Essexes...?) or basically the entire Kido Butai wandering of the map someplace without damaging any US carriers in the process.

BMN · Mar 10, 2015

If the blockade, starving, an bombing happen earlier, then it's to be expected that they'll surrender before the nukes come into play. Meanwhile, Europe doesn't change dramatically

chris N · Mar 11, 2015

By Germany not declaring war on the US pressure would be on FDR to throw the Full resources of the US to beating Japan. Thus the could be no thought of the US going to war against Germany until the Germans did something stupid like declaring war on the US.

King Augeas · Mar 11, 2015

chris N said:
By Germany not declaring war on the US pressure would be on FDR to throw the Full resources of the US to beating Japan. Thus the could be no thought of the US going to war against Germany until the Germans did something stupid like declaring war on the US.

Or committed an act of war, such as sinking US ships in the Atlantic.

pattersonautobody · Mar 11, 2015

Well, what you'd get is later US entry in the European war, which would mean that the first one may see of US forces may be in a 1943 torch or fighting a proxy war somewhere the British got some sort of foothold in Europe (perhaps Sicily or Greece if they are lucky in 1943.) It also means things are nastier in Russia for longer, as the tide won't start turning there as soon, interesting butterflies.

Japan probably ends in the beginning of 1945, essentially starved to death and an invasion of the home islands which is very costly.

The US may take part in D-Day landings, or due to losses, they might push to remain at a secondary front (at this point Italy or the Balkans.) I am not sure if the British could even pull off something limited without huge US support, but maybe. If they do, the US will support them.

The war in Europe ends in nukes.

lionhead · Mar 11, 2015

chris N said:
By Germany not declaring war on the US pressure would be on FDR to throw the Full resources of the US to beating Japan. Thus the could be no thought of the US going to war against Germany until the Germans did something stupid like declaring war on the US.

The US will go to war with Germany, sooner rather than later. They can't ignore their Allies in Europe and hope for the best while they beat up Japan.

ivanotter · Mar 12, 2015

Will it entail that there is no support for UK?

No battle of the Atlantic involving US? After all, there was a shooting war going on and that being the reason for the DOW by Germany.

Does Japan first mean that the US shipping goes to Pacific?

It is difficult to see the UK making any inroads on their own. Churchill could see that as well as anybody.

If North Africa is not backed by US forces and materiel, I doubt that El Alamein is coming off like it did. Torch would be out the window.

Without the immense industrial capacity of US, I doubt that Tube Alloy would result in anything significant. I think we have had that discussion as well.

Ivan