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If Japan doesn't surrender in August 1945, and instead of invading, the Allies simply blockade and bomb Japan, leading to the collapse of the Japanese regime in November 1946 and an Allied "humanitarian intervention", with, say, a loss of 20% of the Japanese Home Islands civilian population, along the lines of @CalBear's speculation, what would happen? Pretty obviously there'd be a Japanese Republic, but could it be stabilized? What would be the consequences for the rest of Asia and the Cold War?
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