WI Japan doesn't invade Korea in the late 16th century?

Let's say Toyotomi Hideyoshi dies before he launches his campaign (the Imjin War) to try and take over China through Korea in the 1590s.

Obviously, Korea would be much better off: it wouldn't lose a significant amount of its population, and its cultural artifacts, technological inventions, and agricultural capabilities wouldn't be destroyed.

Would this result in the Ming Dynasty surviving or would the Qing Dynasty still replace it?

With butterflies, it's hard to predict, but would this have any obvious effects outside of East Asia?
 
Hmm, I suppose the easiest way to talk about this is to split it up between the nations involved.

Japan: It really depends when Toyotomi Hideyoshi dies. Not only had the war been in preparation for years, his succession would be quite messy in near all cases as he had a 3 year old son who died in 1591, a half-brother who died around the same time, and a nephew who was adopted after the former two died (and was forced to commit suicide a few years later due to suspicions of planning a coup). If he dies early enough, he hasn't alienated the swathes of daimyo that he would offend in the Imjin years (like killing the Mogami girl) and who would later defect to the Tokugawa banner as a result. Much of what led to the Tokugawa's rise, in fact, was directly because of either Hideyoshi or Ishida Mitsunari's actions and how they alienated some of the most powerful daimyos in Japan.

Anyways, it depends on which heir Hideyoshi's on. If it's the baby, there's definitely going to be a power struggle, especially if it dies when it did. If it's the half-brother, he too is liable to die early due to years of illness and cause succession issues. The nephew would be the most stable but, by that point, the war had been planned for years by that point (since 1587) and would begin only 4 months after he is adopted by Hideyoshi. Worst case is if Hideyoshi dies between his half-brother's death and his adoption of his nephew.

Japan could see the Sengoku Jidai extended for a few years, maybe a decade. It'll be unified eventually, most likely, seeing as there were quite a few potential unifiers even prior to Oda Nobunaga and the fact that Tokugawa Ieyasu was on the rise.

Other than that, there's the matter of religion (Hideyoshi did crucify the 26 Christians). Seeing as Japan had one of the largest Christian populations outside of the Europe, we could see a much more Christian Japan, especially in the south, since Christian persecution tended to take a backseat while succession loomed over everyone's heads and converting meant getting access to saltpeter for gunpowder and thus better weapons. Which would be important in a succession crisis. In the process, it would lead to a much more western-oriented Japan due to trade with other Christian nations and religious fraternity. It could also mean Portuguese or Spanish inroads into Japanese affairs if the Kirishitan daimyos begin calling them in later on if Japan stays disunified for long enough. So either a much more Christian and open-door Japan with more advanced technology due to western trade or a disunified collection of states subject to foreign influence.

In terms of territorial extent, it'd have more reason to stay within its own confines unless it becomes ascendant like in OTL. While Japan wouldn't have that established 'claim' on the Korean peninsula to justify a conquest, any ascendant and militaristic Japan would aim for exactly that because of Korea's position relative to Japan (like Antwerp being a pistol aimed at England's heart, Korea was a dagger put to Japan's neck).

Overall, more instability (since Tokugawa Ieyasu wouldn't be ready to take the reins and succession and religious matters), possibly more advanced gun technology (due to western trade from not being isolationist), more Christians (because the persecution would probably start later if Japan stays disunified), and potentially more foreign influence (due to the above). A bit more reticence in overseas conquests, I would think due to lack of precedent. Perhaps richer than OTL's Japan but more liable to internal issues. No expansionism means it antagonizes less of Asia (much of SE/East Asia holds a grudge against Japan for its conduct during its Imperial period).

Korea: It would be better off in the short term but its main issues (factionalism, rejection of foreign technology, corruption in the bureaucracy) wouldn't really be fixed. The entrenched elite, the yangban, would still be a major obstacle to any military or education reforms (rejecting the arquebus for being foreign, preventing hangul from being used due to fear of the lower class becoming literate and rising). Factional conflicts between the Easterners and Westerners would deadlock the nation or lead to more purges, as usual. It'd take some major regime change to remedy the issue and, even then, there's really not many sources of conflict that would necessitate such reform until it's too late (Imjin War, Manchu invasions, colonialism).

It depends on if the king after Seonjo is more like Prince Gwanghaegun or King Injo (the former more pragmatic and friendly to the nascent Manchu, the latter more dogmatic and Ming-aligned). If Gwanghaegun maintains the throne, then the Joseon would avoid the pointless conflicts with the Manchu that would end in Korean subjugation. But, being a concubine's son, Gwanghaegun might have trouble holding onto the throne (even with the prestige he got from his handling of the Joseon during the war and reconstruction, he still was overthrown in a coup). Injo, well...the Joseon military would still be stagnant like before the Imjin War and chances are that the Manchu would still sweep in like OTL if Gwanghaegun is overthrown and the Joseon go pro-Ming anti-Manchu. It'd be taken by surprise and sign a humiliating peace, chances are, since that's what happened even after the war experience of the Imjin War.

But the nation as a whole would be better off economically due to not being burned and having thousands of artisans taken as POWs and hundreds of thousands dying. And it probably wouldn't go as isolationist as in OTL since they wouldn't have to recover quite so much, so the 1897 Korean Empire might happen a bit sooner (once the Qing are decayed but the Joseon are modernized enough to be recognized as independent). If Japan doesn't colonize Korea, it's doubtful any of the Europeans or the USA would, seeing as the only ones able to reach it are Russia, the UK, France, and the USA. Early on, the Qing can over the Koreans and, later, the UK wouldn't let Russia or France get a place as populous and resource rich as Korea (ores, coal) and the USA would be much more interested in trade as it was with the Japanese.

Something that might be interesting to explore, not related to Hideyoshi's death, is an earlier introduction of the potato into Korea. It was introduced near the end of the Ming and contributed to the Qing's absolutely insane population growth (x2: 200 million to 400 million from 1749 to 1851) but only reached Korea in around the 1800s. Now, a Korea without the Imjin War would be more likely to not retreat into a hermit shell for the sake of recovery and so might get it more widespread much earlier (and thus avoid the various famines that capped its population at under 18 million in the 1800s). Add that to a lack of the Imjin War's damages and the Joseon might not be so behind Japan in terms of population and thus have an easier time resisting colonization.

Add in a good reforming king and a workable court (good luck with that) and the Joseon might rise to become a regional power or, if it reclaims its naval glory days, a trading power like Baekje. But taking Manchu lands at this point is a bit hard to do. Still, it's quite easy to have Korea do better than in OTL since OTL was a bit of a Korea-screw (paranoid king, deadlocked court, expansionist neighbors, corruption, all for centuries).

Also, Siberian tigers don't go extinct in Korea if the Japanese never colonize Korea, which could happen if the two were more on-par in population and tech. They used to be quite common until the Japanese hunted them to extinction (last recorded one died in 1922). More tourism, perhaps?

Ming: Likewise, it would do a bit better but factionalism, corruption, and natural disasters aren't averted with Hideyoshi's death. You'd have to prevent the Hongwu Emperor from centralizing the Empire nearly as much as he did so as to keep his successors, like the Wanli Emperor, from letting all power slip into factional struggles (the Wanli set a precedent for Ming Emperors to go on strike, basically. Eunuchs, scholars, and bureaucrats end up fighting for power while the Emperor is off indulging himself with worldly pleasures). The worst effects of famine can be averted with proper food aid, which depends on a clean bureaucracy that doesn't pocket all the tax and aid money for themselves. At the 1590 point, the Ming was already rotting away and it'd take a vigorous Emperor, a whole lot of court intrigue, and plenty of blood to prevent the Manchu from overrunning the Ming during the mid-1600s. Plus all the revolts due to high taxes, the military suppression, raising taxes to pay for military suppression, the revolts due to high taxes...I'd say the Ming were heading to the event horizon by the Imjin War and would've reached it regardless of the Japanese (they had other border wars, corruption due to the Emperors' incompetence, natural disasters). If not the Manchu then some rebels declare a new dynasty and continue the continual cycle of the Mandate of Heaven.

Manchu: Depends on what happens to the Ming Empire. Gwanghaegun on the throne means better relations and less of a chance of a full invasion, which would help keep the Joseon afloat. But they were ascending at this point and, if they aren't the ones conquering China, then they'd be a regional power in their own right. Won't be Sinicized, meaning the Manchu language isn't reduced to 10 speakers in 2015. But probably put under Russian influence once the Russians reach the Pacific.

If they do conquer the Ming, it'll still be pretty in their favor since the corruption+famine+Ming's inability to pay soldiers led to mass defections. Even discounting the Imjin War, these would be rampant by the conquest time and the Qing would take China with relatively the same amount of effort, assuming the Ming don't get a brilliant emperor who somehow keeps the Empire sinking further into ruin between 1590 and 1644. But even then, it would take just one idiot emperor to reverse all the reform and ruin the Ming again. So, I'd lean towards Manchu doing well and Ming dying horribly if the POD is 1590s.

Elsewhere: Well, no isolationism in Korea or Japan plus higher populations due to no war (and maybe new crops) means tens of millions more people to produce and consume on various trade routes, meaning trading nations like Portugal and the Netherlands do even better economically. A struggle between the Korean tiger and the Japanese dragon, perhaps? Faster modernization of Korea and Japan would mean more struggles over in the east if China ever declines, which has implications in a worldwide war scenario by expanding the war and creating a new front for Russia (because Korea and Japan would likely side against each other). Also, more immigrants might find their way to the New World if overpopulation hits either nation. More wealth in the world, more people, a very different SE/East Asia (SE because that would be a contested zone between the East Asians and Europeans for resources and manpower).
 
@BellaGerant

It's very likely that the Ming Dynasty would have just quashed Nurachi in his nascent period instead of letting him unify the Jurchens due to being distracted.

As for emperors going on strike,Zhengde and Jiajing already set the precedence for that.Wanli wasn't exactly doing nothing while the whole time he was on strike either.He was basically running the empire with his eunuchs instead of Confucian officials--who were probably equally if not far more corrupt and far less obedient to his commands.Post-mortem examination of his corpse showed that he suffered some serious problems with his legs,so that probably has something to do with him not meeting officials.
 
@BellaGerant, thanks for your detailed response!

A bit more reticence in overseas conquests, I would think due to lack of precedent. Perhaps richer than OTL's Japan but more liable to internal issues. No expansionism means it antagonizes less of Asia (much of SE/East Asia holds a grudge against Japan for its conduct during its Imperial period).

Actually, that was the kind of scenario I was hoping for and is the reason for why I asked these questions; also, see this post from 2008 describing a case of cooperation between Japan and Korea resulting from the Imjin War not happening - I only wanted to know more about what might result from this PoD.

Faster modernization of Korea and Japan would mean more struggles over in the east if China ever declines, which has implications in a worldwide war scenario by expanding the war and creating a new front for Russia (because Korea and Japan would likely side against each other).

Or yeah, it might go into imperialistic/nationalistic competition that becomes hostile like WWI. Figures.
 
@darthfanta

Didn't Nurhaci start conquering the other Jurchen close to the turn of the century, after the Imjin War? I do suppose the Ming could prevent Manchu unification but, during the Imjin War, Nurhaci kept trying to improve relations with the Ming and Joseon (and also disrupt the traditional tributary communication chain) by offering up troops that he didn't have/couldn't afford to send to help. It's worth noting that the Manchu wiped out the 100,000 expeditionary force from the Ming and 13,000 from Joseon in during the Ming's 1619 invasion but I suppose I'm overstepping the bounds of my knowledge in that respect.

Huh, didn't know about the Wanli's legs. I was under the impression he neglected his duties a bit more than the previous emperors during the latter half of his reign, though for different reasons and to a much larger extent.

But corruption was rampant, in any case, and contributed heavily to the Ming's decline (along with the border raids).

@Pipcard
I figured that the Joseon wouldn't be too fond of the Japanese on the basis of wokou raids (at that point, ethnic Japanese were a minority but it was all under the same label to the Koreans) and Hideyoshi's questionable diplomacy over the year. Plus, there's plenty of chances for island disputes between the two and the possibility of carving up rich Chinese lands during a period of Chinese civil war...well, the Koreans have done that before under the Gogoryeo which, if nationalism proceeds as normal and spreads to the east, would be a call for Korean expansionism. I suppose.
 
@BellaGerant

Without the Imjin war,Ming would have money and not distracted by the war to attack Nurachi.Nurachi's rise started in the early 1590s when the Imjin War was in full swing.Prior to the rise of Nurachi,the Ming Dynasty had no trouble with crushing tribes that get uppity.Nurachi trying to unify the Jurchens will definitely be seen as a threat,but by the time that happened,the Ming Dynasty was too busy with other campaigns or too bankrupt to do anything about it.They were basically forced to sit tight until Nurachi grew too big as a threat.

Joseon will probably be in a better position to assist Ming expeditions against Jurchens as well.

Without the rise of the Jurchens,the peasant rebellions later on might be smashed.Elite Ming forces were generally diverted to fight Jurchens instead of smashing rebellions later on.The Jurchens played a major role in wiping out elite Ming forces.Folks like Li Zicheng were almost killed several times over until Ming forces pursuing them were recalled to deal with the Jurchens instead.
 
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Okay if Hideyoshi kicks the bucket before the Imjin things may or may not fall back into chaos. Regardless of which Toyotomi success Hideyoshi they have to deal with not having legitimacy to become Hideyoshi was just a peasant and could only become Kampaku and not Shogun, however no Imjin War which largely saw the western clans that would make up the pro-Toyotomi send their forces over, could make things difficult if war breaks out although Ieyasu to his credit was one to play the long game.

I figured that the Joseon wouldn't be too fond of the Japanese on the basis of wokou raids (at that point, ethnic Japanese were a minority but it was all under the same label to the Koreans) and Hideyoshi's questionable diplomacy over the year. Plus, there's plenty of chances for island disputes between the two and the possibility of carving up rich Chinese lands during a period of Chinese civil war...well, the Koreans have done that before under the Gogoryeo which, if nationalism proceeds as normal and spreads to the east, would be a call for Korean expansionism. I suppose.

Joseon might not care what happens in Japan, Woku were basically a thing of the past by the later 1500's. Japan can't do anything until there's a resolution with the Toyotomi situation, trying to fight somewhere for some reason might cause dissatisfied groups to try and play king of the mountain.
 
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