WI Japan doesn't include US possessions in 1941 offensives?
- Thread starter Dr. Luny
- Start date
Dr. Luny
If you use the search facility, although it can be a bit awkward, you will find this comes up fairly regularly.
The key point would be whether America was able to join the conflict fairly immediately. Personally I expect not although some would disagree. If they don't then Japan has a very good time until either they totally over-stretch themselves or the US does come out of neutrality. In the latter case, if the Philippines have been properly built up things can get very bad for the Japanese. However if Britain is forced to make peace before that point it could get even nastier in E Asia.
If the US does declare war on Japan almost straight away a lot would depend on what plans both sides have and how they work out. If they have left a little back in terms of forces the Japanese could still attack the Philippines almost immediately after the US dow and that could potentially be nasty for the US. A politically inspired mission to relieve the islands could see a disaster markedly worse than Pearl Harbor. If their really lucky, after a dow that has split opinion in the US, that might mean a peace proposal being accepted. [Although that's fairly unlikely]. If no such early US disaster, but they still lose the Philippines the US will win in the end, as they have too huge an advantage in terms of production, but could be a bit longer and bloodier.
Steve
Without an attack on PH and PI the Japanese leave the US free to organise themselves to enter the war at the time and means of their own choosing. This is worse that having enraging the US with PH and PI.
The US will finish its defensive construction on Midway, Wake and Johnson islands, move their forces to PI and then declare war. Bingo, Japan is screwed.
The US will finish its defensive construction on Midway, Wake and Johnson islands, move their forces to PI and then declare war. Bingo, Japan is screwed.
Paul V McNutt
Banned
There is no way an attack on foriegn colonies would lead to a US declaration of war. Riain is right this does give the U S time to build up it's defenses The question is how does a US Japanese war come about?
There are two schools of thought on this one: those who think the U.S. would have intervened and those who think it wouldn't have. I tend to subscribe to the latter, as anti-war, isolationist sentiment was still widespread in the U.S. up until Pearl Harbor, and there's no chance the U.S. public or congress would have supported war against Japan on behalf of Britain and the Netherlands, and certainly not for the sake of their COLONIES. The special relationship between Britain and America wasn't as strong as it is today.
Well, that's easy enough. Assume that Japan is successful in conquering the "Southern Resource Area." Meanwhile, the alarmed U.S. military fortifies its Pacific holdings while the equally alarmed Philippine government cooperates in a major expansion of both the native military and the U.S. military presence. That'll result in a strong and well-fortified U.S. force directly interdicting the shipping routes between Japan and its new conquests. Japan's military regime has essentially no choice other than attack at that point, for they would never accept this critical weakness.
Wow, for a second I thought we'd actually go a week without one of these threads. Its hard to answer your question though, simply because of your scenerio's plausibility. Don't get me wrong, I doubt Roosevelt would be able go to war over this offensive, but the Japanese DO NOT KNOW THIS. For them to go ahead without knowing this is complete suicide, because of the U.S. strength and the strategic position it occupies. So my question to you Luny is what has changed that has given Japan the certainty it needs to go ahead and ignore the U.S.
. Its hard to answer your question though, simply because of your scenerio's plausibility. Don't get me wrong, I doubt Roosevelt would be able go to war over this offensive, but the Japanese DO NOT KNOW THIS. For them to go ahead without knowing this is complete suicide, because of the U.S. strength and the strategic position it occupies. So my question to you Luny is what has changed that has given Japan the certainty it needs to go ahead and ignore the U.S.Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't FDR state that an attack on the DEI would be the entrance of the US?
After all, the DUI was the world's fourth largest exported of oil at the time. Their oil was crusical for both sides of the war.
Paul V McNutt
Banned
FDR could never conviince the American people to go war to defend a Dutch colony. He would not be so stupid as to try.