What if the Japanese ended up not expanding further in China after 1933 and thereby avoided any headline-grabbing Sino-Japanese war?
However, let's assume that European politics unfolds the same, the European War begins on schedule and that Japan is sympathetic to Germany, France and Netherlands fall in Europe, and Japan becomes opportunistic, forcing Vichy to accept Japanese occupation of Indochina.
Would the Allies and Americans sanction the Japanese for those actions alone, even without building up years of bad blood over a Sino-Japanese war? Why or why not?
If they don't sanction the Japanese over Indochina, what's the probable next Japanese move?
If they do sanction the Japanese over Indochina, what's the probable next Japanese move?