WI Japan couped during WWII and surredering early

Could a faction of the japanese government coup Tojo from 1942 to 1944 and then surrender inconditionally to the americans? Maybe by gaining support from the emperor or just by taking power by force and surrendering the home islands, forcing the Kuwantung army to surrender immediately or run out of supplies and then surrender?
 
Problem is that many generals in the field would probably declare the coup an act of treason and refuse to recognise its Leadership. The Kwantung would certainly fight on, Tokyo's control over it was often just theoretical, they'd have enough supplies to keep fighting for a long time. If a co-ordinated war effort collapses then it will shorten the war but the ending could get very messy.
 
Problem is that many generals in the field would probably declare the coup an act of treason and refuse to recognise its Leadership. The Kwantung would certainly fight on, Tokyo's control over it was often just theoretical, they'd have enough supplies to keep fighting for a long time. If a co-ordinated war effort collapses then it will shorten the war but the ending could get very messy.

Ah, but they will face the eternal problem of the Japanese ultra-right defying the government - once the Emperor rebukes them they CAN'T defy him. It's not theoretically possible within the Japanese nationalist mindset.
 
yeah, there's two issues ... who would have the weight to be able to coup what effectively was a military junta (in which the primary debate was which corp should be considered highest ranked) ... and the fact that the local generals or admirals or whoever's the highest ranked commander at each scene, would likely be inclined to call it treason and move on as if any order to stand down didn't exist.
 
Problem is that many generals in the field would probably declare the coup an act of treason and refuse to recognise its Leadership. The Kwantung would certainly fight on, Tokyo's control over it was often just theoretical, they'd have enough supplies to keep fighting for a long time. If a co-ordinated war effort collapses then it will shorten the war but the ending could get very messy.

On supplies: would this apply to the forces outside of China? Afaik, Japanese logistics were hard pressed to even barely meet the day-to-day needs of the forces in Malaya, Philippines and other places. And if this coup takes place in mid-late 1943, when the US sub fleet starts to really go to work, then the supply problem would be even worse. Wouldn't such forces run out of everything in a very short time (excep maybe for food stolen locally)?
 
Just who would carry out such a coup? A coup, being an extra-legal change of government, usually requires military force or the threat thereof to carry it out. The government under Tojo has a virtual monopoly of military force which makes such a coup well-nigh impossible. One of Tojo's first priorities on becoming prime minister was to stamp out the culture of gekokujo within the military, which he did quite ruthlessly and efficiently. This ensured that the military would be solidly behind his government and subservient to it and that there would be no possibility of a military coup.

Furthermore the political climate in the early years of the war, up until mid-1944 at least, favors the current government; the euphoria generated by the successful I-Go campaign coupled with the government's successful concealment of subsequent reverses, ensured the wholehearted support of the Japanese populace for that government. Thus any coup attempt would be bereft of popular support as well.

The only other group with any power is Japanese industry. Since they are reaping huge profits from supplying the military's needs they have no incentive to interfere; indeed, any coup which brought an end to the fighting would mean a large reduction in their profits and they would be certain to oppose any such change of government.
 
Given the historical rivalry between Navy and Army, the only branch realisitcally capable of a coup would be the Navy, though in Politics, the Navy and Army cooperated quite nicely most of the time in WW2, as both were militarisitc enough to continue the war itself. Military honor and the code of honor were very much alive in both branches, so there only was a very slimm change of such a coup.

If such a Coup woud need to be anyway, it would most likely not be performed by high ranking officers, but more likely by a group from lower ranks, possibly influenced by some form of ideology, such as Communism, as there were some Communist sentiments in Japan before and during the war, though very underground. The esteblishment would not try to do a Coup as that was in violation of their oath to Emperor and State. Even though Yamamoto did differ from Tojo in many ways, he was not the one for a coup, just as in Germany the high ranking generals were not openly supporting the Stauffenberg Bombplot, although some would not mind if Hitler was killed.
 
I wonder if something killed off Tojo and some of the other hardline clique, if it might be possible to have moderates convince the Emperor to fight for a peace. I doubt it but it might make things a little more plausible.
 
I think I saw a TL where Tojo et all were killed and it made the Emperor fight for peace.

Given the Army/Navy split, the most obvious source for the coup would be the Navy. Yamamoto Isoroku wouldn't spearhead it, obviously, but he would probably quietly look the other way.
 
The problem is the military runs the government, and contrary to what's believed, Tojo and company were the moderates meaning whoever wants to take over would be radical. Another problem with the POD is there already was a coup attempt on Febuarary 26 called the 2-26 incident, where members of the radical nationalist Kodoha faction had tried to take power but were crushed, so another coup attempt is not gonna fly.
 
The problem is the military runs the government, and contrary to what's believed, Tojo and company were the moderates meaning whoever wants to take over would be radical. Another problem with the POD is there already was a coup attempt on Febuarary 26 called the 2-26 incident, where members of the radical nationalist Kodoha faction had tried to take power but were crushed, so another coup attempt is not gonna fly.


The 2-26 incident was in 1937, no?

Maybe japan could have e even worse naval defeat in the solomon islands placing the navy in a even worse situation, this could lead for some dissent to some officers, and if this leads to Yamamoto not being killed, some officers could ask him to help to overthrown Tojo
 
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