WI: Japan avoids radical militarism; a timeline

But it is still dived between North, and South.

The USSR must fall, and all nations under it be fully free.

Only in the same way that OTL Germany is divided today between north and south, just with a slightly adjusted border.

Actually the OTL fall of the Soviet Union was not evident at all. It required a series of unpredictable and unlikely events. Besides, the New Union actually gives the amount of freedom that Soviet citizens wanted.
 
But it is still dived between North, and South.

The USSR must fall, and all nations under it be fully free.

Otherwise, where is the fun to have an alternate history with a still existing Soviet Union? So don't be spoilsport and give the communists some slack, and disregard the notions of a "evil empire" stolen from Star Wars. That's fanciful thinking when you do know that some dictatorships are not true communists like South America for example, where you have military dictatorships that were funded by the US to crush seemingly communist sympathiziers, but are not communists.
 
Otherwise, where is the fun to have an alternate history with a still existing Soviet Union? So don't be spoilsport and give the communists some slack, and disregard the notions of a "evil empire" stolen from Star Wars. That's fanciful thinking when you do know that some dictatorships are not true communists like South America for example, where you have military dictatorships that were funded by the US to crush seemingly communist sympathiziers, but are not communists.

Likewise, the supposedly communist regimes that were overthrown by said military dictators often were democratic Socialist (Allende, anyone? Or in Africa, Patrice Lumumba).

Obviously, the Soviet Union was a repressive regime, and likewise its satellite states. A friend of our family lived in West Berlin, and he told us about how one time when he took the S-Bahn, he got off the train and found himself helping some poor bastard who'd got away from the East by hanging on the train's underside. If you're willing to do that, it had to be pretty awful. But the Cold War was absolutely not black and white. And I'd say that, long-term, things would be better-off economically with the USSR staying together, provided there are genuine reforms. Let's face it, full independence/capitalism didn't exactly benefit a lot of old East Bloc nations.

Under sane leadership, that is. We wouldn't want any Zhirinovsky's Russian Empire-style scenarios here...
 
Not exactly. De facto independence and de jure autonomy is extremely unlikely to hold together for long. For example, the British Dominions theoretically continued to remain part of the British Empire until the mid-20th century, although they each functioned independently on a political level since the late 19th to early 20th century. The Japanese are going to find it difficult to reconcile the fact that Korea's history as a "culturally unified" entity lasted significantly longer than that of Japan, which explains the historical/cultural repression efforts IOTL that I had stated earlier. As a result, by the time European colonies actively begin to push for independence, Korea will eventually attempt to follow suit.

In other words, Koreans will begin actively pushing for independence by the 1950s-60s, after the WWII analogue, either through peaceful or violent means (Korean soldiers who had been trained under and fought for the Japanese will switch sides in the latter), leading to autonomy by the 1960s-70s, and independence 10-20 years later (if not earlier).

What about a Dual Monarchy-type deal? Or, since you raise the British Dominion example, Korea gets pretty much full independence, but still has a Japanese Governor-General and acknowledges the Emperor of Japan as head of state? Obviously, if this were a Japan as repressive as OTL, I can't see the Korean people accepting anything short of full independence, but this Japan?

Either way, ITTL this song will probably be a protest song rather than an Olympic anthem...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rpYq1lSce1U
 
What about a Dual Monarchy-type deal? Or, since you raise the British Dominion example, Korea gets pretty much full independence, but still has a Japanese Governor-General and acknowledges the Emperor of Japan as head of state? Obviously, if this were a Japan as repressive as OTL, I can't see the Korean people accepting anything short of full independence, but this Japan?

A dual monarch would be virtually impossible, given that Japan historiography essentially did not treat Korea as an equal for centuries before then, and shaped Japan's approach towards Korea before 1945. In addition, the Ganghwa Treaty in 1876 was an unequal treaty, while Japanese individuals had already assassinated Empress Myeongseong in 1895, and the peninsula eventually became a protectorate in 1905, then was effectively annexed in 1910, indicating that Japan actively sought to absorb Korea gradually over decades.

Also, I only mentioned the dominions as a loose analogy, as it was an OTL example of how an empire can slowly break apart, despite gradually granting more political freedoms over time. While the dominions did not claim to be direct successors of local entities before British colonization, and were multiethnic (although in varying proportions), Korea had essentially been unified on a cultural, ethnical, and political level for a millennia or so before 1910, making a "commonwealth" virtually impossible to sustain over the long run.

Either way, ITTL this song will probably be a protest song rather than an Olympic anthem...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rpYq1lSce1U

The general concepts in the song might work in an alternate scenario, but if Korea is not independent, the music video itself would essentially be ASB. Specifically, beginning in 1915, the royal palaces began to be systematically demolished, and would not have been reconstructed due to the significant expenditures that would have been involved, not to mention that cultural representations (such as traditional clothing) had also been suppressed during the early stages of colonization, long before militarism eventually kicked in.
 
The general concepts in the song might work in an alternate scenario, but if Korea is not independent, the music video itself would essentially be ASB. Specifically, beginning in 1915, the royal palaces began to be systematically demolished, and would not have been reconstructed due to the significant expenditures that would have been involved, not to mention that cultural representations (such as traditional clothing) had also been suppressed during the early stages of colonization, long before militarism eventually kicked in.

Oh, for sure - heck, butterflies mean that Psy wouldn't even exist ITTL (a world without Gangnam Style...:D). It was more the general patriotic sentiment in the lyrics, or at least the subtitles (don't speak Korean). I wasn't entirely serious ;)

One thing that occurs to me is that this POD almost certainly butterflied away the death of Ito Hirobumi. A lot of posts on this forum have argued that for a substantially different Japanese Empire and an improved relationship with Korea, you'd need to keep him alive, andthen there's the 2009 Lost Memories film. Now, obviously there's a limit to what one man could do, but from what I've read he was opposed to the Annexation Treaty...
 
Oh, for sure - heck, butterflies mean that Psy wouldn't even exist ITTL (a world without Gangnam Style...:D). It was more the general patriotic sentiment in the lyrics, or at least the subtitles (don't speak Korean). I wasn't entirely serious ;)

Yes, which is why I said that the lyrics within the song would generally remain the same, especially considering the fact that the ideas expressed aren't very specific to begin with.

The subtitles are relatively accurate.

One thing that occurs to me is that this POD almost certainly butterflied away the death of Ito Hirobumi. A lot of posts on this forum have argued that for a substantially different Japanese Empire and an improved relationship with Korea, you'd need to keep him alive, andthen there's the 2009 Lost Memories film. Now, obviously there's a limit to what one man could do, but from what I've read he was opposed to the Annexation Treaty...

ITTL, and in 2009 Lost Memories, Korea is directly annexed in 1910, as was the case IOTL, not to mention that the latter suggests that the Japanese had managed to successfully carry out cultural genocide (an alternate version of the Sōshi-kaimei/Changssi-gaemyeong was presumably carried out as well), so neither are exactly what you're looking for.

Assuming that Japan still manages to win in 1895 and 1905 against China and Russia, respectively, and that Korea is turned into a protectorate around 1905-10 or so, it becomes almost inevitable for Japan to eventually annex Korea. The treaty in 1905, which had been directly enforced by Itō Hirobumi through military force, already meant that Korea de facto ceased to become sovereign, especially considering that the military only became functional in name, causing Gojong to send several missives to the US, France, and the UK from 1906-7, along with sending envoys to the Second Peace Conference at The Hague in 1907, in order to protest the treaty's conditions. These actions caused the Japanese and Korean officials who were pro-Japanese to force the monarch to step down in 1907, and another treaty carried out in the same year essentially turned Korea into a puppet state. Ultimately, the peninsula was effectively annexed in July 12, 1909, through another treaty, which was further confirmed in the Japan-Korea Annexation Treaty conducted in August 22, 1910. For reference, Itō was assassinated in October 26, 1909, at which point it would have been too late for significant divergences even if he had survived.

In other words, in order for Korea to escape annexation and not become a Japanese colony, Japan would have to be unable to militarily extend its influence, which essentially requires suffering significant defeats during the First Sino-Japanese or Russo-Japanese wars. In any case, Korea will either remain independent after Japan decides not to interfere further after 1905, or will attempt to declare independence soon after decolonization occurs elsewhere, although animosity levels may or may not differ significantly.
 
A slightly revised 2000 map and a teaser for the 2010-ish(?) update.

Revised color sceme in Indonesia, Thailand, Pakistan, and Iran
NOCPW-2000.png



A WIP for the near-present-day map.
NOCPW-2010.png
 
Manchuria is ruled by a Quing right? So could Japan place a Joseon on the throne and make it a puppet state? The Joseons were kings in imperial Japan and it would be the best option Japan has to counter Korean nationalism. Yes Korea you are independent we just have military bases everywhere just like in the independent Kingdom of Manchuria.
 
Manchuria is ruled by a Quing right? So could Japan place a Joseon on the throne and make it a puppet state? The Joseons were kings in imperial Japan and it would be the best option Japan has to counter Korean nationalism. Yes Korea you are independent we just have military bases everywhere just like in the independent Kingdom of Manchuria.

This has been discussed a lot. The way I see it, if they were going to install a monarch, Manchu-style, then they would have done it from the beginning. Once they annex the place in 1910, they're isn't really any turning back - not for at least half a century. At this point in the game, if the monarch isn't going to be from the Nihonese imperial family, there isn't going to be one at all.

Also, I just prefer republics and find them more practical than monarchies. :p The idea of the people coming together for the sake of each other is just a stronger bond than "this guy is everyone's boss because [insert god/s] wills it!"

em, cant see map.
Perhaps can upload to imgur or the TL itself?

here's an album I just made on imgur.

Here are the two images:

2000:
1HlPOe0.png



2010:
JMrKxfI.png
 
Part X: A New World Without Fear

For three quarters of a century, the world had been locked in a state of constant global conflict: the Cold War. Ironically, the tri-polar nature of world power had ensured that this period of confrontation was one of the most peaceful in recorded history, as international wars had become a rarity.

However, disturbances still existed, as passions and interests ebbed and flowed, leading to moments of great tension. The Indochinese Wars and the Tonkin Missile Crisis. The reformation of the USSR and the collapse of the Warsaw Pact. By the end of the 20th century, the Muslim world had also gone through great changes, ones that would lead to the third great disturbance of the Cold War era.

Before the end of the Second Great European War, Iran had been occupied by foreign troops and through a coup had a Soviet-friendly government installed. Through the 60's and 70's, local resistance adopted a distinctly religious tone. However, by the end of 80's this resistance had failed, and the last insurgencies against the Soviet allied government had all but collapsed. Uninspired by the failure of islam to take the lead in anti-socialist sentiment. Ideas of jihad and islamic fundamentalism remained the fantasies of handful of aging exiles who had fled to Iraq.

1980: The Soviet-friendly government in Afghanistan had been increasing their cooperation with the Soviet Union.

By 1990, Afghanistan was economically and militarily completely dependent on the Soviets.

1999: With the reformation of the Soviet Union into a non-socialist, democratizing, loose federation, the representatives of Afghanistan petitioned their desire to join the Union of Soviet Sovereign States.

This move was well-supported by the northern regions of Afghanistan, as they were composed of a multitude of ethnic groups, many of which already had large communities in the S.U. However, the Pashtuns were a much more independent-minded group and had a clear dominance over large areas of Afghanistan.

2001: Already restless due to the reforms over past two decades, and with a surge in the population of young men, a Pashtun insurrection began. The government of Afghanistan requested assistance of the Soviet military, which was granted. This resistance quickly abandoned the ideal of a united Afghanistan in favor of Pashtun nationalism. Unrest spilled over the border into Pashtun regions in Pakistan as well. At first, Pakistan was eager to weaken their neighbors to the north and provided arms and aid to the rebels.

However, due to the failure of the previous Iranian insurrection, no charismatic character in the U.S. supported any large amount of covert aid.

Without large amounts of aid from the Americans, the Pakistani government became increasingly unstable, with popular dissent rising due to the neighboring conflicts as well.

2002: The Soviets had secured the entirety of the northern region, but the southern half of Afghanistan seethed. The conflict drew on as the youth of Afghanistan were bled, but had just enough supplies to avoid complete collapse.

2005: Decades of American apathy in the region allowed the Pakistani government's instability to come to a head. A coup d'état deposed the regime. While Pakistan had suffered from several coups before, Pakistan had been able, thanks to American support, been able to quickly re-cement their position. The lack of American interest and intervention in the region had isolated Pakistan.

Pashtuns in Pakistan joined the Afghan revolt and established a de-facto independent government in Pakistani territory during the moments of power vacuum following the coup.

India, taking advantage of the chaos, allowed small border raids on Pakistani positions to occur. The new Pakistani government, not wanted to appear weak, took the bait and issued a counter-attack. A border war ensued in which India gained the advantage and pressed into northern Kashmir.

This in turn set off two chain reactions. The Pakistan-Baloch split and the Chinese intervention.

There was a split in the Pakistani ruling military party between those who favored immediately ending all external conflicts in order to restore domestic order, and those who favored expanding the external conflicts, hoping to incur a nationalist rally-to-the-flag effect on the populace. The peace-seekers accused the war-seekers of recklessly bringing ruin to Pakistan, and that ending the wars, even on unfavorable terms was the path to future stability. The opposite side of the argument accused the peace-seekers of being weak cowards. If the government could be bullied by rebels and Indians, the people would overthrow them for sure, thus they had to stand firm.

Due to the internal division of the regime, most of the military officers who wanted a cease-fire with India and the Pashtun rebels fled to the south of the country, where with the help of Baloch nationalists they established their own regime that promised peaceful resolutions. The war-hawk officers took control over the north and continued to fight the Pashtun rebels and Indians in Kashmir, even though they continued to lose.

In order to avoid a greater catastrophe such as nuclear war between Pakistan and India, China declared to the U.N. that it would lead a coalition to intervene in the border war. Well-trained and well-equipped Chinese armies secured Kashmir. Chinese-led U.N. peacekeepers set up an independent country there that was neither Pakistani nor Indian.

2006: Pakistan claimed both of the new independent countries that were Baloch-Sindh and Kashmir, but could do nothing about them. In Afghanistan, a settlement was negotiated. Afghanistan would become a Soviet Sovereign Republic, but each region was allowed a referendum to decide which state to join, the new Pashtunistan that had been established in Pakistan, or the Afghan SSR. Additionally, many Balochis in the south-west of Afghanistan broke off from the Pashtuns to join the new Baloch-Sindh state.

2008: This time is marked as the beginning of the Arab Spring, as large protests against Saddam Hussein occurred, demanding reforms, democratization, human rights, and an end to poverty. These protests and riots would spread throughout the middle-east. Leading to the eventual overthrow of regimes in Tunisia, Libya, Oman, and Egypt. Violence and large protests would spread to include all of the Arab countries, from Algeria to Iraq, Syria to Yemen.

Waves of revolution and modernization would sweep the middle-east, although the long term-effects of these upheavals are still unknown.

End of Part X



The first decade of the 21st century draws to a close, political analysts re-evaluate the relative position of the countries of the world.

The Great Powers:
1. Ever since the end of the GWII, the US has stood at solid #1 with a huge economy and overwhelming military with near-global projection. Need we say more?
2. Nihon, though lagging behind in industry and military capabilities until the '60s, has experienced massive economic growth, is one of the richest per capita, and has translated their economic strength and technological superiority into military prowess.
3. China has grown well under the reasonable governance of the KMT. However, Nihonese naval control over much of the trade ways has limited Chinese trade opportunities -constraining the growth of the economy. Despite this (thanks in part to American training), the Chinese do have a military that boasts incredibly quality in addition to quantity.
4. The Soviet Union is a power in decline. Although it is technically one of the three superpowers, most would rank it below China on the scale of Great Powers. While still possessing the largest nuclear arsenal and a powerful military, the poor economy and federalization reforms have left this behemoth as a husk of its former glory. Many feel anxious over the possibility of the Soviet Union losing all of its foreign influence, leading the establishment of a bi-polar world between the US and Nihon.
5+6. France and the United Kingdom are the ancient time-tested Great Powers, though the age of European dominance has passed from living memory, their economies are the record-setters of development, their global deployment of military bases the vestiges of their long-gone colonial empires. Individually, their growing irrelevance as the "old men great powers" places them at the bottom of the list, though if the E.U. were counted as a single entity it could reasonably place above China.

As I have reached the present date, this timeline is essentially complete.

However, I will post new updates on request in order to "fill out" topics and events that are not sufficiently well-addressed in the main 10 chapters.
 
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