WI: Japan attacks USSR instead of Pearl Harbor

One of a two-part POD in 1941...what if, instead of an attack on Pearl Harbor and the Philippines, greater cooperation between the Japanese navy and army leads to an overrun of Vladivostok through Manchuria, and a bombing and subsequent naval landing at Petropavlovsk?

Downside: Japan is down resources.
Upside: USSR loses two extremely important ports for lend-lease, cannot fight a two front war as Stalin had pulled all his troops to the west.

Japan doesn't have to take very many wide swaths of territory; just a few key cities and outlying areas and the USSR would be doomed.

How long would the US stay out of the war?

I still see the UK eventually kicking Italy/Germany out of north Africa after a much more brutal, protracted fight. Since the USSR collapse would not be instant, they could probably get this done in time to turn the Caucasus into a stalemate for Germany, but Japanese pressure in the east would probably have led to the fall of Australia and China, and likely India as well. I think the UK would have been bled out of mainland Eurasia once Japan and Germany could launch coordinated attacks, but remain safe on their island until a few months after the first Japanese carriers are spotted in the Bay of Biscay...
 
Last edited:
Japan did invade the Soviet Union.....in 1939, while the initial Soviet operational plans were prepared for precisely this kind of war against both Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan. The Japanese aren't going to do this in any recognizable WWII that leads to a Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact and partition of Poland as per OTL.
 
Ah...I suppose I should specify that they hold off on this, and wait to take advantage in '41. I feel like it would be Japan effectively coming to Germany's rescue.
 
Ah...I suppose I should specify that they hold off on this, and wait to take advantage in '41. I feel like it would be Japan effectively coming to Germany's rescue.

Ah, no it would not be this at all. The fall of France will still as per OTL lead the Navy to have a better argument to go south than the Army has to go north.
 
One of a two-part POD in 1941...what if, instead of an attack on Pearl Harbor and the Philippines, greater cooperation between the Japanese navy and army leads to an overrun of Vladivostok through Manchuria, and a bombing and subsequent naval landing at Petropavlovsk?
Why? They needed the resources to the south, and it was the American fleet's interference that concerned them, and they already knew the war would be a gamble. Why would they go after the Soviets?
Japan doesn't have to take very many wide swaths of territory; just a few key cities and outlying areas and the USSR would be doomed.
I don't believe that. Germany DID take wide swaths of territory, with more than a few key cities, and caused horrific casualties, and the USSR never folded.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
The Japanese get their behinds kicked. They then run out of oil and the Chinese wipe them out. It matters to the Great Patriotic War not at all.

The Japanese COULDN'T do anything but make a dive for the Southern Resource Area. It was that or accept American terms to restore trade. That would have cost them French Indochina and most of their gains in China (which would have toppled the government when the Army pulled its Minister, so it was a non-starter). The IJA had SIX MONTHS of fuel in reserve on December 7th, the IJN had around 12 months; the civilian reserve (including fuel to run war plants) was somewhere in the 3-4 month range. Without the strike to the South Japan was done like dinner by late 1942, even if the didn't engage the Soviets.

If the Japanese had tried for the Soviets the Sorge Ring would have let Stalin know. The Red Army would have been waiting and would have mopped the floor with the Kwantung Army. This would have meant no difference to the War against the Reich, NONE. The Soviets never moved a company from the Far East Front's OOB during the entire war. If anything, the Far East was reinforced.

The entire "Stalin stripped Siberia to save Moscow" thing is a myth. The troops who went to the aid of Moscow in December of 1941 were from Central Asia, not the Pacific Oblasts. The Japanese would have run into a fully armed (and fairly pissed off) Red Army which would have beaten them to a pulp.

BTW: This is VERY well plowed ground here. The search feature is a bit of a pain, but it will yield a lot of information if you ask the right question.
 
What there oil in Eastern Siberia? If so, it'll be their drive

All I can remember of useful (during WW2) mineral and other resources there are gold and natural gas
 
Had the Japanese known of the Sakhalin reserves and had they had the knowledge and the ability to detect and remove those reserves, the war might have taken a different course. Nobody knew about underwater drilling at the time.

img1287361978.jpg
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
What there oil in Eastern Siberia? If so, it'll be their drive

All I can remember of useful (during WW2) mineral and other resources there are gold and natural gas

Had the Japanese known of the Sakhalin reserves and had they had the knowledge and the ability to detect and remove those reserves, the war might have taken a different course. Nobody knew about underwater drilling at the time.

No, no, a thousand times no.

It takes years (indeed, it can take a decade) from the day the development of an oil field begins until oil starts flowing in meaningful quantities, and it is an immense logistical undertaking requiring massive resources. The Japanese went after the oil in the Dutch East Indies because those oil fields had already been developed, the extraction infrastructure was already there, and the fields had been operating for a considerable time.

Even if the Soviets had simply abandoned Siberia to the Japanese and the Japanese magically knew where all the oil fields were, they would not have been able to start getting useful amounts of oil out of them until the 1950s.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
You need to set a month for your POD. The world was rapidly changing, so the a few weeks different can change a lot. Rough time line from memory.

Mid June 1941 - Hitler attacks Russia. Best Japanese window to attack Russia begins.

End of July 1941 - Oil Embargo by USA has begun, Planning for WW2 in Pacific begins. After this time, the Japanese have to attack south to get oil. They could attack Russia also.

November 1941, Japanese Forces begin movements to attack areas. Really, too late to abort plans at this point.

If you want an easy POD, the US Army intelligence assessment said that the Manchurian commander might attack if he had a 2 to 1 forces advantage, and would if he had a 3 to 1. They army took things in indochina withouth talking to the Navy, so why not attack Russia without co-ordination.

Also think about the weather. By Early November, the Russian far east is rapidly cooling. Sea ice is forming by December. The weather is not favorable for an attack after September. If after September 1941, we are likely looking at April 1942 at earliest.

Even if Japan attacks Russia, the axis still likely lose. The Japanese army is inferior in armor to the Russian. So the attack is unlikely to be successful. The big impact will be the battle for Moscow. It was Siberian forces that drove the Germans back, so if japan attacks siberia, then the Winter lines are likely near Moscow. This change could butterfly the 1942 summer campaign. I don't see north africa changing a lot. Nor India falling. The Japanese campaign to the south would be the same or weaker than OTL. The only Naval change might be Japan goes defensive earlier and does not try to take Island in the Coral Sea or attack Midway. Unless Japan is the straw that breaks the camel back, then the Axis are not help a lot, and likely suffer more.

The real key will be Moscow. IF german can take and hold Moscow, this might break the will of the Russians to fight, and MIGHT cause Russia to leave the war.
 
You need to set a month for your POD. The world was rapidly changing, so the a few weeks different can change a lot. Rough time line from memory.

Mid June 1941 - Hitler attacks Russia. Best Japanese window to attack Russia begins.

End of July 1941 - Oil Embargo by USA has begun, Planning for WW2 in Pacific begins. After this time, the Japanese have to attack south to get oil. They could attack Russia also.

November 1941, Japanese Forces begin movements to attack areas. Really, too late to abort plans at this point.

If you want an easy POD, the US Army intelligence assessment said that the Manchurian commander might attack if he had a 2 to 1 forces advantage, and would if he had a 3 to 1. They army took things in indochina withouth talking to the Navy, so why not attack Russia without co-ordination.

Also think about the weather. By Early November, the Russian far east is rapidly cooling. Sea ice is forming by December. The weather is not favorable for an attack after September. If after September 1941, we are likely looking at April 1942 at earliest.

Even if Japan attacks Russia, the axis still likely lose. The Japanese army is inferior in armor to the Russian. So the attack is unlikely to be successful. The big impact will be the battle for Moscow. It was Siberian forces that drove the Germans back, so if japan attacks siberia, then the Winter lines are likely near Moscow. This change could butterfly the 1942 summer campaign. I don't see north africa changing a lot. Nor India falling. The Japanese campaign to the south would be the same or weaker than OTL. The only Naval change might be Japan goes defensive earlier and does not try to take Island in the Coral Sea or attack Midway. Unless Japan is the straw that breaks the camel back, then the Axis are not help a lot, and likely suffer more.

The real key will be Moscow. IF german can take and hold Moscow, this might break the will of the Russians to fight, and MIGHT cause Russia to leave the war.
Uh no, the USSR transferred the central Asian forces for that, not the Far East forces Japan would face. Those were left completely alone and would trash Japan completely and utterly

Moscow still goes exactly the same, only real difference might be Japanese interdiction of lend-lease through Vladivostok
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Uh no, the USSR transferred the central Asian forces for that, not the Far East forces Japan would face. Those were left completely alone and would trash Japan completely and utterly

Moscow still goes exactly the same, only real difference might be Japanese interdiction of lend-lease through Vladivostok

The Russians would likely have more forces in the Far East, and less in the Moscow area.
 
The Russians would likely have more forces in the Far East, and less in the Moscow area.
Why, they already had more than enough in the Far East to wipe the floor with Japan as they proved at Kalkin Gol. OTL they never transferred even a single division west from the Far East.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
What there oil in Eastern Siberia? If so, it'll be their drive

All I can remember of useful (during WW2) mineral and other resources there are gold and natural gas


No one knew about the oil and gas in Siberia at the time. The geological studies that found it didn't happen until the war was long over and it was the 1960s before the technology existed in the drilling industry that could exploit the fields.

In 1941 it was snow & ice.
 
The Soviet Far East divisions were far too numerous and well-equipped for an unmechanized and poorly-trained Kwangtung Army to ever have any hope of overcoming them. I have said it before and I shall say it again, the only one who wins in this case would be Zhukov who gets to present to Stalin a massive stack of scavenged officer katanas from the IJA.

Meanwhile Japan gets thrown out of it's Asian mainland possessions early and the US gets a much easier Pacific War since Japan has less fuel.
 
Top