One of a two-part POD in 1941...what if, instead of an attack on Pearl Harbor and the Philippines, greater cooperation between the Japanese navy and army leads to an overrun of Vladivostok through Manchuria, and a bombing and subsequent naval landing at Petropavlovsk?
Downside: Japan is down resources.
Upside: USSR loses two extremely important ports for lend-lease, cannot fight a two front war as Stalin had pulled all his troops to the west.
Japan doesn't have to take very many wide swaths of territory; just a few key cities and outlying areas and the USSR would be doomed.
How long would the US stay out of the war?
I still see the UK eventually kicking Italy/Germany out of north Africa after a much more brutal, protracted fight. Since the USSR collapse would not be instant, they could probably get this done in time to turn the Caucasus into a stalemate for Germany, but Japanese pressure in the east would probably have led to the fall of Australia and China, and likely India as well. I think the UK would have been bled out of mainland Eurasia once Japan and Germany could launch coordinated attacks, but remain safe on their island until a few months after the first Japanese carriers are spotted in the Bay of Biscay...
Downside: Japan is down resources.
Upside: USSR loses two extremely important ports for lend-lease, cannot fight a two front war as Stalin had pulled all his troops to the west.
Japan doesn't have to take very many wide swaths of territory; just a few key cities and outlying areas and the USSR would be doomed.
How long would the US stay out of the war?
I still see the UK eventually kicking Italy/Germany out of north Africa after a much more brutal, protracted fight. Since the USSR collapse would not be instant, they could probably get this done in time to turn the Caucasus into a stalemate for Germany, but Japanese pressure in the east would probably have led to the fall of Australia and China, and likely India as well. I think the UK would have been bled out of mainland Eurasia once Japan and Germany could launch coordinated attacks, but remain safe on their island until a few months after the first Japanese carriers are spotted in the Bay of Biscay...
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