WI: Japan Attacks the USSR in 1941

my scenario is to provoke Soviets into attacking rather than try round two (three?) attacking them? an operation to seize rest of Sakhalin would be modest enough and likely successful.

In the event of war, the Soviet OPLAN was to undertake limited counteroffensives to "stabilize" the frontline on both sides of Manchuria; additionally, on the tactical level their fortified regions would have launched short attacks of roughly regimental strength to keep the Japanese from penetrating the Tochka belt - a strategy that invites high losses especially when one is outnumbered. The overall concept looked as follows:

400px-KantokuenSovWikiMap.png


However, this assumed the Japanese actually went and attacked them first. Had there been nothing except a strike against Sakhalin and blockade of Vladivostok I would imagine the Mongolian and Sungari Offensives still would have been launched (to ensure the security of the Trans-Siberian Railway), and the Navy and Air Force would still have attempted to follow the guidelines issued to them by SVGK (though I doubt either would have lasted very long). The Soviet attempts to penetrate Manchuria, at least in the East, probably would have failed, and both sides would be left firing artillery at each other's strongpoints over the border.

not sure if Lend Lease was known to be of such importance at the time, IMO they should have at least cut the Pacific route OR sided with USSR, they should have known how bystander role was going to end for them.

The disruption of Lend-Lease would be damaging in the intermediate term (that is, it would probably hamper the progress of the Soviet counterattacks against Germany in 1943 or so), but the Red Army together with the debilitating effects of the weather and the Wehrmacht's faltering logistics stopped the latter before Moscow long before the Allied aid amounted to much.
 
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