WI: Japan Attacks the Philippines As Predicted in 1941

Or only attack the Philippines ? If so MacArthur is likely the scapegoat

And nothing of value is lost.

In all seriousness, merely attacking the Philippines would not seem to fulfill the primary objective of a 'decisive' defeat upon the American navy. Of course, the matter of if Japan is capable of inflicting a serious enough defeat to get America to throw in the towel is another question.
 
I assume the attack on the Philippines would bring the US into WW2 as did Pearl Harbor

Attacking the Philippines will bring the US into the war. Unfortunately for Japan, the USN isn't going sortie over the Philippines to Tsushima itself against the IJN. The USN war gamed that scenario repeatedly throughout the 1920s and 1930s. The American warplan for dealing with Japan was to wait 2-3 years to build up the necessary forces and logistics before beginning offensive operations.
 

cpip

Gone Fishin'
What if in December 1941, the Japanese do attack the Philippines as predicted instead of Hawaii?

Admiral Kimmel executes WPPac-46, exactly as the US was planning for. He'd sweep the northern Pacific for raiders and merchantmen, dispatch cruisers and subs on commerce raiding, and begin raids against the Marshall Islands with intent to attack and seize them as the first step, then moving on to an assault against Truk. The fleet was not to rush west to defend the Philippines ever.

If you look at all of Rainbow 5, I point you to Section VII, Item 47. "No Army reinforcements will be sent to the Philippine Coastal Frontier"; and at Section IX, Item 57(a)(8): "As the situation may permit, the desirable standard being the maintenance of stocks at 90 days' supply."

The United States had written off the Philippines. It was to them to fight and die in place, and expected them to survive for at most 3 months.
 
Does the Kido Butai hang out around the Philippines waiting for the American fleet to sortie out of Pearl Harbor to ambush them? Do they still go for Guam and the British Colonies?
 
Does the Kido Butai hang out around the Philippines waiting for the American fleet to sortie out of Pearl Harbor to ambush them? ...

Truk, not the PI. Post PH the KB split off part to the home islands & the others went to Truk for Christmass. Truk was the central Pacific pivot point for the IJN. It had a fuel depot, a basic service capability, HQ facilities including a large communications & signal intel station, & shore based air wing for defense.

From Truk the fleet could spring out to intercept a west bound US fleet, or sortie south to raid & support operations securing the S Pacific. Hanging out near the Phillipines too long creates problems with replenishment & cedes a lot of cross Pacific voyage the USN.

Does the Kido Butai hang out .... Do they still go for Guam and the British Colonies?

Guam was a minor operation, that did not require carrier support. Neither did the Maylasia campaign. It is still essential Maylasia & New Guinea be attacked to secure the flanks of the campaign to capture the Dutch East Indies. In the case of Rabaul & New Guinea the IJN carriers were involved.
 
Carl Schwamberger thanks for the info!

So in this TL the US fleet fights a series of naval battles against the IJN in December 1941/ beginning of 1942. So would Kimmel's fleet pretty much suffer almost the same losses they would have in the OTL Pearl Harbor raid (some of the battleships and cruisers)? Would the fleet possibly loose a carrier earlier than in the summer of 42 OTL?
 
Top