WI - Japan and Ottomans launch a joint attack of Russia during Russo-Japanese War?

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

The Ottoman attack into the Caucasus in WWI was unsuccessful because it was launched with way too few troops - and it almost worked. Sarakamish failed because the pinning force was too weak and the Russians were able to divert forces to face off the outflanking Ottoman force. With just so much as one more division, the Russian position in the Caucasus would have been destroyed.

In this scenario, the empire is run by a very adroit Sultan with very experienced ministers, not a 33-year old hothead like Enver in charge, with a military quite intact, not the army savaged by revolution and the Balkan Wars and undergoing a huge restructuring like it was in 1914.

Other powers are unlikely to intervene unless Russia does something stupidly antagonistic. (I.E ends up by some minor miracle in constantinople)

If I was feeling pro-Russian I would argue this apparent conspiracy against Russia promotes some of the patriotism that the Russo-Japanese war was meant to generate. Its quite a different situation afterall and the government can now point out reasons why everything is not going their own way in what was meant to be a semi-colonial conflict.

You have the economic issue with the straits being closed but where are the Ottomans going to go? The Balkans are a mess (and an invasion would obviously upset Austria-Hungary amongst others) and there seems little reason to imagine an attack into the Caucasus would be more effective than it was in WW1.

As it is the 1905 revolution is averted and Russia can hurl men east and south untill something sticks. At which point Britain intervenes diplomatically to ensure neither Japan or the Ottomans are overly humiliated. The Russians likely keep Manchuria, possibly dividing up Korean territory meanwhile the border with Turkey remains much the same. The Russians agree to this due to the economic damage that a closed Black Sea is having.

Result being that the Russians are more anti-British.
The British are more anti-Russian. The great game continues.

The Japanese are cowed and begin to look more towards powers other than Britain (possibly Germany?), realising that having a crushing naval superiority is useless when theres next to no hostile navies to fight.

The Ottomans turn more inwards bemoaning the leadership that brought them a useless war. Even if the leadership of OTL would never embark on the course, assume a much earlier PoD bringing them to a position when they would. The Balkan states begin eyeing the Ottoman Balkans perhaps leading to an earlier Balkan war. On the otherhand great powers may decide that its in no ones interest for the Ottomans to suffer to much and intervene to prevent this occuring.

Germany maintains the view that Russia is the main threat rather than France.
France is glad that their ally is apparently powerful and not a paper tiger. Theres some slight tension over the lack of aid by the French towards the Russians but this is generally smoothed over by combined fear of German aspirations.

All in all the world is a very different place.

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

The Ottoman performance in WWI was better than expected, but they came close to losing Constantinople in the 1st Balkan War, so I wouldn't be so sure they'd do well in the Caucasus. Let's not forget that Russia was fighting Germany and A-H at the same time the Caucasus Campaign was going on, and I suspect the Eastern Front was a much bigger drain on them than Gallipoli, Palestine and Mesopotamia on the Ottomans; the Russian forces in Manchuria are not such a serious drain, and I suspect Japan will soon accept the same peace treaty they got in OTL, only earlier. And those European possessions that the Ottoman Empire hasn't lost yet means a lot of territory to garrison while they fight the Russians.

 

[Stalker]

?Wouldn't this bring France in on Russia's side?
This triggers Britain attacking France, with Germany sitting back and waiting to attack France/Russia.

Japan-Ottomans-Britain-Germany v France-Russia,

GW2 is going to be fun

Well, I need to consult my history book about the Ottomans. But Germans were the only Russia's reliabe allies at that time with Britain and France gloating over Russia's misfortunes.
Turkey, will it go into war with unclear result? I doubt that!


"When Russia fought abroad, very many Turks were killed" (c) Anton Chekhov

 

[Earling]

The Ottoman attack into the Caucasus in WWI was unsuccessful because it was launched with way too few troops - and it almost worked. Sarakamish failed because the pinning force was too weak and the Russians were able to divert forces to face off the outflanking Ottoman force. With just so much as one more division, the Russian position in the Caucasus would have been destroyed.

In this scenario, the empire is run by a very adroit Sultan with very experienced ministers, not a 33-year old hothead like Enver in charge, with a military quite intact, not the army savaged by revolution and the Balkan Wars and undergoing a huge restructuring like it was in 1914.

Except ofcourse as people have mentioned the Russians would have had significantly more troops in the Caucasus during WW1 themselves if they had not suffered such a debacle on the eastern front.

Frankly I suspect the campaign will be one that goes nowhere. There are many logistical problems in fighting across the Caucasus for both sides however both should be more than capable of putting enough boots on the ground to prevent any major breakthrough. As it is throughout the 19th Century the Russians seem to have had the better of fighting in the Caucasus, Kars for example being taken something like three times before it would eventually be handed over in 1878.

At best the Russians push on to Trebizond or the Ottomans manage to retake Kars. I can't see anything more dramatic than that happening before both sides decide to end the war due to outside intervention. As it is neither side is going to benefit significantly from the war.

 

[OperationGreen]

God save the Anglo-Japanese Alliance 1902 & 1905
(This was Public not a secret alliance, one consequence of this was Russia seeking a alliance with France.)

To quote the 1902 and 1905 text.
Article III (1902)
"Promise of support if either signatory becomes involved in war with more than one Power."

Article VI (1905)
As regards the present war between Japan and Russia, Great Britain will continue to maintain strict neutrality unless some other Power or Powers should join in hostilities against Japan, in which case Great Britain will come to the assistance of Japan and will conduct the war in common, and make peace in mutual agreement with Japan.


So Japan attacks Russia, Ottomans attack Russia, If France feels the need to get involved they will face Britain.

A nice source with the wording of the agreement.
http://web.jjay.cuny.edu/~jobrien/reference/ob31.html

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

But Germans were the only Russia's reliabe allies at that time with Britain and France gloating over Russia's misfortunes.

Excuse me?

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

The Ottoman performance in WWI was better than expected, but they came close to losing Constantinople in the 1st Balkan War, so I wouldn't be so sure they'd do well in the Caucasus. Let's not forget that Russia was fighting Germany and A-H at the same time the Caucasus Campaign was going on, and I suspect the Eastern Front was a much bigger drain on them than Gallipoli, Palestine and Mesopotamia on the Ottomans; the Russian forces in Manchuria are not such a serious drain, and I suspect Japan will soon accept the same peace treaty they got in OTL, only earlier. And those European possessions that the Ottoman Empire hasn't lost yet means a lot of territory to garrison while they fight the Russians.

Actually they DIDN'T come close to losing Istanbul in the 1st Balkan War - the Bulgarians actually smashed up their military trying to ger through their defensive lines (again Constantine proves his wisdom), and the Ottomans in defeat learned lessons in artillery coordination that the Bulgarians missed in victory.

Gallipoli, Palestine, and Mesopotamia accounted for the vast majority of available Ottoman troops - there were actually not that many on the Eastern Front.

Also, we need to avoid the computer wargame approach to warfare. While the majority of Russian forces might not have been in Manchuria, the drain on Russian logistical and financial resources were huge. Why did the Russians make peace? They could have fought on and beaten Japan on land. They agreed to end the war because they were exhausted. In the case of war with the Ottomans, they would have had to mobilize not only troops to fight the Ottoman army, but would have had to maintain large garrisons in their Muslim territories to prevent uprisings. On top of that, large garrisons are still needed to defend the borders against Austria and Germany.

With an actual active ally, it does not make logical sense that the Japanese would make peace earlier. And alliances normally preclude a separate peace - that really isn't on the table.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Again, we're not playing a computer game. Russia will be exhausted and suffer political instability before its military is defeated. The Ottomans have virtually no chance whatsoever of taking any Caucasus territory from Russia - but they will divert very considerable military, financial, logistical, etc resources from a country that does not have anywhere near the military potential it had in WWI, as opposed to the Ottomans, who have considerably MORE military potential than they had in WWI.

Except ofcourse as people have mentioned the Russians would have had significantly more troops in the Caucasus during WW1 themselves if they had not suffered such a debacle on the eastern front.

Frankly I suspect the campaign will be one that goes nowhere. There are many logistical problems in fighting across the Caucasus for both sides however both should be more than capable of putting enough boots on the ground to prevent any major breakthrough. As it is throughout the 19th Century the Russians seem to have had the better of fighting in the Caucasus, Kars for example being taken something like three times before it would eventually be handed over in 1878.

At best the Russians push on to Trebizond or the Ottomans manage to retake Kars. I can't see anything more dramatic than that happening before both sides decide to end the war due to outside intervention. As it is neither side is going to benefit significantly from the war.

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

Gallipoli, Palestine, and Mesopotamia accounted for the vast majority of available Ottoman troops - there were actually not that many on the Eastern Front.

I'm talking about the Eastern Front being a big drain on Russia's forces. You mentioned that in WWI the Ottomans had to fight in the Caucasus at the same time they fought in Gallipoli, Palestine and Mesopotamia. Well don't underestimate Russia, they weren't throwing all their strength in the Caucasus either.

And Japan will make peace because Russia will give it what it wants: the South Manchurian Railway, the lease on the Liaodong Peninsula, and a protectorate over Korea. They might get the Chinese Eastern Railway too if they play their cards right. I don't think the Japanese will ever accept an alliance treaty that doesn't allow them to make a separate peace.

 

[Earling]

Again, we're not playing a computer game. Russia will be exhausted and suffer political instability before its military is defeated. The Ottomans have virtually no chance whatsoever of taking any Caucasus territory from Russia - but they will divert very considerable military, financial, logistical, etc resources from a country that does not have anywhere near the military potential it had in WWI, as opposed to the Ottomans, who have considerably MORE military potential than they had in WWI.

Yes but you seem to think that the political situation to the Russo-Japanese war of OTL is the same as it would be in this war. I disagree. The difference between what was considered a botched colonial war and war with what appears to be a British backed coalition (from Russian eyes) against the Russian Empire is considerable. The Tsar's ministers can point at the Ottomans as an excuse for the economic hardship in Russia and its quite possible that the 1905 revolution is delayed untill after the crisis has abated. Without the revolution the Tsar will not have to make concessions and end the war when Russian power relative to Japanese power was about to significantly rise.

In my oppinion the Russians made peace not because they were exhausted but because with revolution in the air the political will snapped. If the political will does not snap then they shall not seek peace.

The Ottoman empire after all is a significant power (certainly considered more so than Japan) and it declaring war is no small thing.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

I don't think the Japanese will ever accept an alliance treaty that doesn't allow them to make a separate peace.

Well then nobody would ever make an alliance treaty with them. Certainly not the Ottomans.

 

[Keenir]

Well then nobody would ever make an alliance treaty with them. Certainly not the Ottomans.

I agree...the Ottomans would've certainly learned their lesson from all those times their allies (*cough*cough*French*cough*) made separate peaces with the Spanish and Italians (& etc), leaving hte Ottomans alone on the battlefield.

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

I agree...the Ottomans would've certainly learned their lesson from all those times their allies (*cough*cough*French*cough*) made separate peaces with the Spanish and Italians (& etc), leaving hte Ottomans alone on the battlefield.

When the hell did the French and Ottomans ever fight Italy?

 

[Keenir]

When the hell did the French and Ottomans ever fight Italy?

not the unified Italy of the 20th Century....but one or more of the Italian states fighting with their Continental allies against the Frank and the Turk.

(1500s-1700s)

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

not the unified Italy of the 20th Century....but one or more of the Italian states fighting with their Continental allies against the Frank and the Turk.

(1500s-1700s)

OK, but did France and Turkey ever sign a treaty in that time period disavowing a separate peace? (Really, I'm curious.) Besides, you have to take into account that the French were occasionally beaten so badly (the Italian Wars, the War of the Grand Alliance) that they didn't really have much choice. And I don't think the sultan asked France's consent before marching on Vienna, in which case the French had every right to sign a separate peace.

 

[Stalker]

Excuse me?

Yes, what puzzled you?
French and British openly sympathised with Japanese cause, meanwhile the Germans, for example, were the only European power that helped to supply the Russian Pacific Fleet No 2 all its way around Africa with coal freighters and all other supplies. It was that short period when Russians and Germans left behind their hostilities and tried to be allies.

 

[OperationGreen]

Yes, what puzzled you?
French and British openly sympathised with Japanese cause, meanwhile the Germans, for example, were the only European power that helped to supply the Russian Pacific Fleet No 2 all its way around Africa with coal freighters and all other supplies. It was that short period when Russians and Germans left behind their hostilities and tried to be allies.

Well thats strange as French ports were very helpful to the Russian fleet

"In September 1904, a squadron under the command of Admiral Rozhdestvenski was sent around Africa - stopping in French and German colonial ports Tangier, Dakar, Gabon, Great Fish Bay, Angra Pequeña, and Nossi Be (Madagascar), then across the Indian Ocean to Cam Ranh Bay in French Indochina and then northward to its doomed encounter with the Japanese fleet at the Battle of Tsushima"

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

OK, but did France and Turkey ever sign a treaty in that time period disavowing a separate peace? (Really, I'm curious.) Besides, you have to take into account that the French were occasionally beaten so badly (the Italian Wars, the War of the Grand Alliance) that they didn't really have much choice. And I don't think the sultan asked France's consent before marching on Vienna, in which case the French had every right to sign a separate peace.

No, it had to be informal because it was bad PR for the King of France to ally with the infidel. Suleyman was rather peeved because he felt one's word was binding, but the King got a ruling from a bishop that word to a non-believer was non-binding.

In any case, Barbaros Hayreddin actually landed off Rome, and refrained from sacking the city at the request of the King of France to avoid embarrassing him.

 

[Tocomocho]

On what basis do you think the Ottomans would be crushed in the Caucasus? They would have been able to mobilize several hundred thousand troops into a region not enthusiastically Russian at a time when Russia was facing a difficult war and growing domestic political instability. In WWI, directly after the disaster of the Balkan Wars when the military was seriously depleted, they launched a batsh#t insane winter offensive into the Caucasus and came within a hair of succeeding, and held their own in that theater while simultaneously fighting in Gallipoli, Persia, Mesopotamia, and Palestine.

In 1904-5, presuming no other countries get involved, they will have to worry about only one front and can commit a very large proportion of their forces against Russia. That would be a very serious problem for Russia. I don't think it would happen because Abdul Hamid would never have gambled away the empire's future on something so incredibly risky.

But if somehow all the other powers guaranteed their neutrality and to restrain all the minor powers (obviously not a conceivable scenario), Ottoman entry would doom Russia.

Because the Russians have more men, better communications, more industries and a true war navy by 1905. And as soon the Caucasian peoples could join the Ottoman side (if they even do), then the Russian agents in the Balkans would led at least a massive uprising in Bulgaria and joined attacks by Montenegro, Serbia and Greece which would stab the Ottomans in the back. The only chance of the Ottomans to achieve a great victory (no a stalemate or something like that) is to throw at least one or two European powers in the Ottoman side, but that is unlikely since the Ottomans are the ones who attacked first and oportunistically the Russians (according to the first post). Things like that are the ones which make a bad reputation...

 

[Keenir]

The only chance of the Ottomans to achieve a great victory (no a stalemate or something like that) is to throw at least one or two European powers in the Ottoman side, but that is unlikely since the Ottomans are the ones who attacked first and oportunistically the Russians (according to the first post).

the first post only said that they form an alliance against Russia in time for one of the wars Russia wages.