WI - Japan and Ottomans launch a joint attack of Russia during Russo-Japanese War?
- Thread starter Keenir
- Start date
I think they are better prepared for a war in the black sea than the pacific. Remember the Crimean, and also remember they dream of getting Constantinople under their hands one day.
They also underestimated the Japs probably.
Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy
Banned
It should.
Only if they have no sense of diplomatic and political balance whatsoever. More likely they try to get Russia and Turkey to make peace.
Italy might take advantage of the situation and attack Tripoli. The Balkan states might take on the Ottomans too.
Interesting idea, but with all the treaty alliances it could get messy. I have some doubts about the viability of such a plan.
Can't wait until Abdul sees this one!
Sargon
A Timeline of mine: The Roman Emperor Who Lost His Nose
Can't wait until Abdul sees this one!
Sargon
A Timeline of mine: The Roman Emperor Who Lost His Nose
Redbeard
Banned
The Ottomans joining the Japanese might save the Tsar, as he can now seriously claim to be defending Christianity etc. and get some successes.
The biggest problem for the Russians was not availability of troops etc. but the distance to the battlefields, this was just before the Transsiberian railway.
Caucassus and/or the Balkans is quite a different matter, and I doubt if the Ottomans by 1905 will have any significant offensive power. They might loose the Armenian areas in the east but the British are likely to have the Russians stopped before they reach the Bosperus.
The war drawing out due to extra Russian motivation is a disaster to Japan, who in OTL was on the brink of collapse at the time of the war ending and the Transsiberian railway was finished just after.
Regards
Steffen Redbeard
The biggest problem for the Russians was not availability of troops etc. but the distance to the battlefields, this was just before the Transsiberian railway.
Caucassus and/or the Balkans is quite a different matter, and I doubt if the Ottomans by 1905 will have any significant offensive power. They might loose the Armenian areas in the east but the British are likely to have the Russians stopped before they reach the Bosperus.
The war drawing out due to extra Russian motivation is a disaster to Japan, who in OTL was on the brink of collapse at the time of the war ending and the Transsiberian railway was finished just after.
Regards
Steffen Redbeard
Abdul Hadi Pasha
Banned
You'd be wrong about the Ottomans not having any offensive capabilities in 1905; taken in isolation, this would screw Russia - just the loss of the use of the Straits is crippling to Russia.
But it's not in isolation, and whatever the Ottomans' offensive capabilities, they would not counterbalance France entering the war and probably dragging in the rest of Europe as well.
In any case, Abdul Hamid II would never, ever have countenanced such a thing. The chances of it working out well are not great.
But it's not in isolation, and whatever the Ottomans' offensive capabilities, they would not counterbalance France entering the war and probably dragging in the rest of Europe as well.
In any case, Abdul Hamid II would never, ever have countenanced such a thing. The chances of it working out well are not great.
Assuming for the sake of discussion that the Japanese and Ottomans did make common cause, I believe it's correct that France would have come to Russia's aid. What I'm not clear on is the status of the Entente at that time, particularly since Great Britain was a patron of Japan and the Ottoman Empire as a counterweight to Russia, a traditional enemy of Britain.
I could see Great Britain staying out of the conflict as such but providing war materiel to the Ottoman/Japanese forces (hereafter, we'll label that coalition the O/J forces, or simply the Juice), with tensions with France heating up. If any Balkan states were to join Russia's side, it could draw in the Habsburg Empire (likely there would be some "accidental" territorial incursions that would escalate rapidly) and Germany on the side of the Juice as well. That in turn would lead to risings in the Baltic states, Finland, and Poland--all backed by the Teutonic/Juice allies. France, meanwhile, would stand alone, facing a hostile Germany to the east and a less-than-friendly Britain across the channel.
Short version: a collapse of the Russian Empire with loss of large chunks of territory (Finland, Poland, the Baltic states, Ukraine, Armenia) replaced by a constitutional monarchy under a collateral branch of the Romanovs--or indeed, a collateral branch of an entirely different house (say, the Swedish royal house). Germany has an array of client states/allies in the newly devolved states carved out of the Russian Empire; at the same time, the grip on Elsaß-Lothringen would be secured since France would probably have been beaten (von Kluck, being only 57 at the time, would have recognized the folly of turning and exposing his flank to the French while approaching the Marne).
By 1910, Europe would be pretty much under the auspices of either Great Britain or Germany, with France reduced to the approximate status of Italy in terms of real power, and Russia not much better. On the other hand, Britain would have gained sizable concessions in Ottoman territory that included crude oil fields, much needed by the Royal Navy as a token of thanks for support. Also, Theodore Roosevelt would have been able to win the Nobel Peace Prize for brokering the peace treaty that ended the Eurasian War--and in the bargain, cements the growing US/Britain friendship. In other words, when Edward VII died in May 1910, the events of the world would be largely dictated by what went on in Washington, London, and Berlin.
I could see Great Britain staying out of the conflict as such but providing war materiel to the Ottoman/Japanese forces (hereafter, we'll label that coalition the O/J forces, or simply the Juice), with tensions with France heating up. If any Balkan states were to join Russia's side, it could draw in the Habsburg Empire (likely there would be some "accidental" territorial incursions that would escalate rapidly) and Germany on the side of the Juice as well. That in turn would lead to risings in the Baltic states, Finland, and Poland--all backed by the Teutonic/Juice allies. France, meanwhile, would stand alone, facing a hostile Germany to the east and a less-than-friendly Britain across the channel.
Short version: a collapse of the Russian Empire with loss of large chunks of territory (Finland, Poland, the Baltic states, Ukraine, Armenia) replaced by a constitutional monarchy under a collateral branch of the Romanovs--or indeed, a collateral branch of an entirely different house (say, the Swedish royal house). Germany has an array of client states/allies in the newly devolved states carved out of the Russian Empire; at the same time, the grip on Elsaß-Lothringen would be secured since France would probably have been beaten (von Kluck, being only 57 at the time, would have recognized the folly of turning and exposing his flank to the French while approaching the Marne).
By 1910, Europe would be pretty much under the auspices of either Great Britain or Germany, with France reduced to the approximate status of Italy in terms of real power, and Russia not much better. On the other hand, Britain would have gained sizable concessions in Ottoman territory that included crude oil fields, much needed by the Royal Navy as a token of thanks for support. Also, Theodore Roosevelt would have been able to win the Nobel Peace Prize for brokering the peace treaty that ended the Eurasian War--and in the bargain, cements the growing US/Britain friendship. In other words, when Edward VII died in May 1910, the events of the world would be largely dictated by what went on in Washington, London, and Berlin.
Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy
Banned
If Bulgaria or Greece joined it'd be pretty hard for A-H to stage that border incident.
The way it didn't for years in OTL?
I never understood these TLs where Britain doesn't raise any objections to Germany taking over the European mainland. Especially given the bad state of their relations with Berlin in 1904.
In my opinion the Ottomans are crushed in the Caucasus and the Russians make peace with Japan in the same terms as OTL. Meanwhile, there is the pro-Russian coup of 1906 in Serbia and Bulgaria proclaims total independence from Turkey. When the Ottomans go to Bulgaria to face off the rebellion Montenegro, Serbia, Greece, Romania and Italy make use of the oportunity and declare war on the Ottomans. So in the end:
- Japan is recognize as a great power as OTL.
- Despite the defeat in the east Russia emerges as a victor in the west, annex western Armenia and put most of the Balkans under their sphere of influence.
- Italo-Turkish and First Balkan Wars earlier and combined.
- Several changes in the Ottoman Empire. It is (probably) too early for a republican revolution, but there are at least a coup d'etat and a sultan deposed. The Young Turks gain control over the Empire earlier.
- More distrust in Germany, Austria-Hungary, Romania, Sweden and Britain against this powerfull Russia than OTL. Perhaps they end in the same side when WWI break out.
- Japan is recognize as a great power as OTL.
- Despite the defeat in the east Russia emerges as a victor in the west, annex western Armenia and put most of the Balkans under their sphere of influence.
- Italo-Turkish and First Balkan Wars earlier and combined.
- Several changes in the Ottoman Empire. It is (probably) too early for a republican revolution, but there are at least a coup d'etat and a sultan deposed. The Young Turks gain control over the Empire earlier.
- More distrust in Germany, Austria-Hungary, Romania, Sweden and Britain against this powerfull Russia than OTL. Perhaps they end in the same side when WWI break out.
trajen777
Banned
1905 Interesting – War starts in Feb 1905
- So Ottomans attack Russia in mid winter and have there army hammered (as in WW1) in the snow of Russia. Russia does Ottomans first
- At this time the there was heavy rebellions in the Balkans (see below) with the newly created states (Greece – Bulgaria) fighting the Turks – leading to the Turkish defeat in the Balkan war 10 yrs later. Turkish units forced to transfer from the Caus to Greece border in winter – 2 months travel.
- Russia fights hard at Port Arthur and holds – as in real world – for months.
- Japans economy exhausted (reason they signed real peace accords with TR)
- Japan is fighting the war for limited gains and after victory could care less about Ottomans.
- Turkish army defeated in Balkans
- Arabs revolt in Mid east – GB takes over full control of Egypt
- Same for Japan
- Russia gets Protectorate over Armenia (separated from Turkey)
- Greece gets Constantinople
- Bulgaria gets other concessions
- France – Italy - Britain Get to split up Mid East.
Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy
Banned
That's a pretty strange definition of "newly".
You assume too much.
Way too much, it seems. If any nation's getting anywhere near Constantinople it's Bulgaria, the way it did in the 1st Balkan War in OTL. You can be sure the Russians will oppose anyone but themselves getting it. And a lot of other nations will oppose the city changing hands on principle.
And I've just noticed this thread's in the wrong sub-forum. I am sooo telling Ian.
Other powers are unlikely to intervene unless Russia does something stupidly antagonistic. (I.E ends up by some minor miracle in constantinople)
If I was feeling pro-Russian I would argue this apparent conspiracy against Russia promotes some of the patriotism that the Russo-Japanese war was meant to generate. Its quite a different situation afterall and the government can now point out reasons why everything is not going their own way in what was meant to be a semi-colonial conflict.
You have the economic issue with the straits being closed but where are the Ottomans going to go? The Balkans are a mess (and an invasion would obviously upset Austria-Hungary amongst others) and there seems little reason to imagine an attack into the Caucasus would be more effective than it was in WW1.
As it is the 1905 revolution is averted and Russia can hurl men east and south untill something sticks. At which point Britain intervenes diplomatically to ensure neither Japan or the Ottomans are overly humiliated. The Russians likely keep Manchuria, possibly dividing up Korean territory meanwhile the border with Turkey remains much the same. The Russians agree to this due to the economic damage that a closed Black Sea is having.
Result being that the Russians are more anti-British.
The British are more anti-Russian. The great game continues.
The Japanese are cowed and begin to look more towards powers other than Britain (possibly Germany?), realising that having a crushing naval superiority is useless when theres next to no hostile navies to fight.
The Ottomans turn more inwards bemoaning the leadership that brought them a useless war. Even if the leadership of OTL would never embark on the course, assume a much earlier PoD bringing them to a position when they would. The Balkan states begin eyeing the Ottoman Balkans perhaps leading to an earlier Balkan war. On the otherhand great powers may decide that its in no ones interest for the Ottomans to suffer to much and intervene to prevent this occuring.
Germany maintains the view that Russia is the main threat rather than France.
France is glad that their ally is apparently powerful and not a paper tiger. Theres some slight tension over the lack of aid by the French towards the Russians but this is generally smoothed over by combined fear of German aspirations.
All in all the world is a very different place.
If I was feeling pro-Russian I would argue this apparent conspiracy against Russia promotes some of the patriotism that the Russo-Japanese war was meant to generate. Its quite a different situation afterall and the government can now point out reasons why everything is not going their own way in what was meant to be a semi-colonial conflict.
You have the economic issue with the straits being closed but where are the Ottomans going to go? The Balkans are a mess (and an invasion would obviously upset Austria-Hungary amongst others) and there seems little reason to imagine an attack into the Caucasus would be more effective than it was in WW1.
As it is the 1905 revolution is averted and Russia can hurl men east and south untill something sticks. At which point Britain intervenes diplomatically to ensure neither Japan or the Ottomans are overly humiliated. The Russians likely keep Manchuria, possibly dividing up Korean territory meanwhile the border with Turkey remains much the same. The Russians agree to this due to the economic damage that a closed Black Sea is having.
Result being that the Russians are more anti-British.
The British are more anti-Russian. The great game continues.
The Japanese are cowed and begin to look more towards powers other than Britain (possibly Germany?), realising that having a crushing naval superiority is useless when theres next to no hostile navies to fight.
The Ottomans turn more inwards bemoaning the leadership that brought them a useless war. Even if the leadership of OTL would never embark on the course, assume a much earlier PoD bringing them to a position when they would. The Balkan states begin eyeing the Ottoman Balkans perhaps leading to an earlier Balkan war. On the otherhand great powers may decide that its in no ones interest for the Ottomans to suffer to much and intervene to prevent this occuring.
Germany maintains the view that Russia is the main threat rather than France.
France is glad that their ally is apparently powerful and not a paper tiger. Theres some slight tension over the lack of aid by the French towards the Russians but this is generally smoothed over by combined fear of German aspirations.
All in all the world is a very different place.
Keenir
Banned
Why would the Ottomans send their army out into the frozen northeast -- when it was a Young Turk in the Triumvarate who gave that order in WW1 ?
Abdul Hadi Pasha
Banned
On what basis do you think the Ottomans would be crushed in the Caucasus? They would have been able to mobilize several hundred thousand troops into a region not enthusiastically Russian at a time when Russia was facing a difficult war and growing domestic political instability. In WWI, directly after the disaster of the Balkan Wars when the military was seriously depleted, they launched a batsh#t insane winter offensive into the Caucasus and came within a hair of succeeding, and held their own in that theater while simultaneously fighting in Gallipoli, Persia, Mesopotamia, and Palestine.
In 1904-5, presuming no other countries get involved, they will have to worry about only one front and can commit a very large proportion of their forces against Russia. That would be a very serious problem for Russia. I don't think it would happen because Abdul Hamid would never have gambled away the empire's future on something so incredibly risky.
But if somehow all the other powers guaranteed their neutrality and to restrain all the minor powers (obviously not a conceivable scenario), Ottoman entry would doom Russia.
In 1904-5, presuming no other countries get involved, they will have to worry about only one front and can commit a very large proportion of their forces against Russia. That would be a very serious problem for Russia. I don't think it would happen because Abdul Hamid would never have gambled away the empire's future on something so incredibly risky.
But if somehow all the other powers guaranteed their neutrality and to restrain all the minor powers (obviously not a conceivable scenario), Ottoman entry would doom Russia.
Abdul Hadi Pasha
Banned
Why would the Ottomans attack in Winter?
Why would the Arabs revolt?
Why would the war end better for Russia than it did historically when they only had to fight Japan?
None of this makes sense.
Why would the Arabs revolt?
Why would the war end better for Russia than it did historically when they only had to fight Japan?
None of this makes sense.