WI James III "the Old Pretender" dies in 1712. His sister Louisa becomes queen.

So in 1712 James III and his sister Louisa both came down with smallpox. She died and he lived, so WI James died and Louisa lived.

In otl Queen Anne made James the offer for the crown if he converted but he declined due to his devout nature. If in this scenario Anne did the same thing with Louisa and the young princess accepted how would things go from there.
 
The immediate effect would be that there would be no House of Hanover. Unless of course Anne still has plans to marry Louisa off to George, in which case we only delay the inevitable for one more generation.

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The monarchy might also not have its powers reduced too much, as that only properly started under George.
 
So in 1712 James III and his sister Louisa both came down with smallpox. She died and he lived, so WI James died and Louisa lived.

In otl Queen Anne made James the offer for the crown if he converted but he declined due to his devout nature. If in this scenario Anne did the same thing with Louisa and the young princess accepted how would things go from there.

I think you would need a different Louisa for this to work because OTL Louisa was very devout and was raised her whole life in the (by this time) very Catholic French court (dominated by Madame Maintenon) by a mother (Mary of Modena) regarded by some as a saint, a father who increasingly became more piously Catholic before he died, and a brother who remained a Pretender and exile because he would not convert (and who in this scenario dies despite being the "rightful" king because of it) - there is no chance she would convert just for a crown (and one without power since she would be a figurehead). She had no memories of England having never been there and until her brother's death any expectation should would be an heir (if she had Louis XIV probably would have been married her off to his grandson, the Duc de Berri in 1710).

Besides, Anne (aka the person who originally spread the rumor that the Old Pretender was a warming pan baby and made her sister Mary II believe it) never even acknowledged Louisa's existence (let alone the fact she had a legitimate half-sister) UNTIL she was told she was dead. If Charles dies and Louisa lives in 1712, a more obvious case would be that Louis XIV - already shattered by the death of not only his heir and heir apparent, but the beloved Dauphine (Marie-Adelaide, Louisa's close friend) in the very same year also due to smallpox, would take very special care that Louisa (now Heir to Britain in French eyes) would remain in the French court indefinitely. There might not be a 1715 uprising in this case, but she would probably marry (to a Bourbon? - Philip V of Spain's wife would die just two years later) and the Stuart line would continue.
 
if she had Louis XIV probably would have been married her off to his grandson, the Duc de Berri in 1710...

Which could have some important knock-ons...

It almost certainly butterflies Berri's 1714 death from a riding accident. So he, not Orléans, would be the Regent for his nephew Louis XV.

Berri was married to his second cousin, the eldest daughter of Orléans, and all three of their pregnancies failed. He is more likely to have healthy children with Louisa. Could fear of this be a reason for Louis XIV to bar Berri's OTL marriage? And to end the intriguing for Berri's hand by marrying him to an outsider? Also, his wife was notoriously unchaste, perhaps even before the wedding.

Say he learns of this, blows off this marriage, and then turns to the notably devout and presumably virtuous Louisa instead. This averts her death from smallpox (she would have moved out of the Stuart residence), and as suggested her brother happens to die instead.

Berri and Louisa have several children, and the Stuart claim to the British crown is now held by a French noble-royal house. Louisa isn't going to be leading any Highland uprisings; there is no 1715 rising at all. (Does this strengthen Jacobitism by avoiding losses? Or weaken it, because by not contesting the Hanover accession, the Jacobites tacitly consent to it?)

By 1745 or so, Louisa's eldest son would be ripe for a try. He might also be Duke of Berry. Could a Frenchman hold the loyalty of the Jacobites?
 
By 1745 or so, Louisa's eldest son would be ripe for a try. He might also be Duke of Berry. Could a Frenchman hold the loyalty of the Jacobites?
I definitely don’t think so. There’s one thing many would hate more than a Catholic King, and that is a French King on the throne of Britain. After James died, unless Louisa marries a British noble, Jacobitism would effectively die.
 
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