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A friend who's not big into AH asked earlier today what might have happened had James Connolly not been executed in the immediate aftermath of the 1916 Easter Rising. (One of the suggestions was "32 county Republic Gaelic and free!", hence the reference to that in my reply.)

My reply:
Putting my historian/althistorian hat on for a moment, and posting what I think is likely rather than what I'd like to see...

As usual with these sorts of questions, it all depends on the how and whys.

Most obvious POD, although I suspect not what you intended, is that he succumbs to his wounds as the doctors expected. Of pretty much equal result is if he's killed in the fighting.

In either case, not much is different. The rest of the executions will still produce public outrage and fuel the movement, but just a bit less. (Connolly was carried to his execution on a stretcher and tied to a chair, and that image was damming.) There might be minor knock on effects, but things should stay more or less as per OTL.

Probably the best chance for a result you'd like is for Asquith to stop Maxwell from carrying out the executions. Moderate Irish pols were basically begging Asquith to stop them, pointing out that it was starting to be a problem. Connolly gets penal servitude. Penal servitude means he either dies in one of the prison camps or escapes.

Hard to do, but possible is an escape, either before the Brits capture him or from Dublin Castle or Kilmainham Gaol. Escape means he'll be on the run, but still a respected leader and even revered symbol of the revolt. This is probably the best case scenario that's likely. A 32 county socialist republic is possible here.

The two hard ones are to have the Easter Uprising succeed or not happen at all. Very unlikely and too many possibilities to give a really good call

It's often useful and interesting to see others thoughts, so I put the same question to you, with some additions:

What happens if Connolly isn't executed?
What happens if he escapes?
With a POD no sooner than Easter 1916, what would it take for Connolly to succeed?
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