WI Jamaica remains Spanish

So lets assume that following the failiure of Penn and Venables expedition to santo domingo, rather than move on Jamaica the fleet returns home or following conquest disease wipes out the rest of the english army and the spanish reconquest succeeds. Assume that the battle of cadiz is butterflied away as well. Without an english conquest of jamaica will the buccaneers of port royale be butterflied away. Also with the lack of incalcuble damage done on the rich spanish cities in latin america such as porta bella or Cartagena meanthat Spain is better off financially. Sure privateering will still occur but without jamaica the english would have that much difficulty. Finnally how much better off is Spain and what is the impact of a lack of englsh jamaica. What impact would be felt on england.
 
Bumping for interest.

The Bahamas may get even more of a pirate infestation than OTL without Jamaica as a bigger and second haven for them. Britain may focus on the Lesser Antilles even more and play for keeps more as well, as its navy continues to grow throughout the colonial age.

Otherwise, it may become another Puerto Rico, I'd imagine - underpopulated until Spain advertises for settlers, who'll end up more or less white and catholic a la PR's demographics.

Plus, having a city be named '(Villa de la) Vega' on the world map would be pretty cool. :D
 
I think its unlikely that Jamaica would stay Spanish, its in a very strategic and valuable part of the Caribbean for the English and I don't think Spain would hold it for much longer than they already did. As for Privateering, I think the English would simply find somewhere else to base them, perhaps by seizing one of the islands off of Mexico or even an earlier conquest of Belize?
 

Deleted member 67076

England loses its major sugar colony and a large source of money. But this cannot be looked at by itself; Britain is overall weaker in the Caribbean but she's not knocked out of the game. She still has Barbados and other Lesser Antillean colonies that will still provide vast sums of income.

As for Jamaica, the Spanish need to overhaul the entire administration there and bring in actual settlers like they did in Santo Domingo to make it both defendable and useful to them. Perhaps those from Central America might be brought in?

But I don't think Jamaica will be a big moneymaker as it doesn't have much to offer at this time other than mining and sugar. However, if the Spanish were to for some reason relax their trade restrictions and Jamaica is able to trade with the other colonies as much as it does with Spain, than the region will become immensely more important.
 
Bumping for interest.

The Bahamas may get even more of a pirate infestation than OTL without Jamaica as a bigger and second haven for them. Britain may focus on the Lesser Antilles even more and play for keeps more as well, as its navy continues to grow throughout the colonial age.

Otherwise, it may become another Puerto Rico, I'd imagine - underpopulated until Spain advertises for settlers, who'll end up more or less white and catholic a la PR's demographics.

Plus, having a city be named '(Villa de la) Vega' on the world map would be pretty cool. :D

Catholic, definitely, but Puerto Rico definitely isn't white. There's a huge Afro-Puerto Rican population, which I also see no reason why Spanish Jamaica wouldn't look like Puerto Rico demographically.

I think its unlikely that Jamaica would stay Spanish, its in a very strategic and valuable part of the Caribbean for the English and I don't think Spain would hold it for much longer than they already did. As for Privateering, I think the English would simply find somewhere else to base them, perhaps by seizing one of the islands off of Mexico or even an earlier conquest of Belize?

I wonder what might become of the Cayman Islands in this scenario? They historically relied on Jamaica and were governed from there until the 20th century. For islands, England has plenty of other options. San Andres Island, Isla de Margarita, the Corn Islands, the Bay Islands, all seem like they could be strategically important for England. Even though England was always interested there, if they lose Jamaica for any significant period of time, that will make them focus their efforts even more.
 
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