What would have happened if Ivan the Terrible hadn't had an outburst of rage and killed his son, Ivan Ivanovich, in 1581?
A different Ivan V with Boris Godunov style advisors would have done wonders. Would it be more sensible if Godunov himself became Ivan's advisor? We're talking about a massive butterfly effect, and with it, Russia's emergence as a European power with great speed. Let's hope it doesn't end up as an ASB issue.
I have a TL where Russia becomes a Pacific power with a colony in SE Asia. I'm not sure if I can integrate my thread into this plausible question or not. I do know that if this butterfly effect were to occur, would Russia still be looking towards the East for expansion?
That's after Yermak, IIRC, so yes it would
EDIT: I've checked, and the POD is actually during Yermak's expedition; still too late to influence it noticeably.
IMHO, the question of Russia going to the east with a 1581+ POD (i.e. after Yermak) isn't really one of isolationism - it's more like "there's those vast unsettled lands with huge amounts of furs, let's go there!" As such, it wasn't too much different from the settlement of western US and Canada, which IIRC wasn't really done by isolationist nations
The main problem with that is, of course, that if Russia isn't isolationist enough, it can easily get itself into a European war and badly lose it (which doesn't go well with the continued existence of any Russian state - but only as related to this does it have anything to do with Siberia).
Oh, and if you didn't get it, that's all about Siberia. Move too far south and the main problem becomes the reaction of Persia and/or China. As such, Russian Philippines aren't too unreasonable with a POD in the 18th century, but with one as early as this (i.e. without Peter I and his expansionism) quite unlikely without a Russian China, Indochina and/or India (not sure which of those is the least ASB, but all three look the part - of course, if the Russians try to mess too much with the late Ming and/or early Qing...)
...So what, how?
January First-of-May
PS: BTW, Sibirskaya, where are you from, and where did you get your handle?![]()
and what do you mean my handle?
Handle. Nick. Member name. Whatever you call it![]()