Wi: Italy wins the Italo-Abbysinian War

[Zoidberg12]

Pretty much what the it says above. What would happen if Italy won the Italo Abbysian War?

How would this effect the Scramble for Africa or European politics.

What would an Italian Colony of Ethiopaia look like? To me a Prtoectorate seems most likely, with the Emperor as an Italian puppet.

Would Italy still remain loyal to the Triple Alliance?

Would they still try and take Libya from the Ottoman Empire? I think they went for Libya cause they were humiliated by the loss of this war, but it could still happen.

So what do you guys thinks. Plus, how could Italy win in the first place?

So, discuss.

 

[katchen]

If Italy takes Abyssinia in 1893, it can then go after the Mahdi in Sudan before the British do (1898) depending on how long it takes them to subdue Abyssinia. At that point, being all the way to Darfur and possibly Abeche' (depending on how far into Chad and Ubangi-Shari the French have gotten by then) the Italians will definitely be interested in taking Libya from the Ottomans. And very likely, Yemen and Asir, if the British won't have too much of a fit, as well. Becaause with Libya and the Sudan, Italy can build a railroad across the Sahara to Abyssinia and Somalia and Asseb and Yemen.

Italy will have a real empire in Africa. One where they can produce a great deal of sugar and coffee. Italians are likely to migrate to Abyssinia in large numbers because of the favorable climate. Perhaps Yemen as well. Italian Libya is likely to be overwhelmed by Amharic speaking Abyssinians and might no longer be predominantly Muslim by the 1930s, especially near the coast. Certainly not predominatly Arab.

France likely to follow suit with trans Saharan railroads leading to predominantly African populations in Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia. Hard to tell at this point how many Africans and Arabs settle in Italy and France. But beyond Egypt, North Africa no longer predominantly Arab by 1939.

 

[Zoidberg12]

^ Very interesting scenario, though I'm not sure if Italy's empire would be than big. Still, they'd be much more powerful with a foothold in Abyssinia.

If the conquer Abyssinia, they might reform into a sort of princely states thing like in Fight and be Right. I think it just makes things easier to manage.

I still wonder how other powers will react if Italy in fact does get to powerful. I think there were a few countries that wouldn't have been to happy with Italy getting to powerful.

 

[Zoidberg12]

One other thing I must say is that an Italian Ethiopia/Abbysinia could be a very worthwhile investment for the Italians. It could not only give the Italians tons of resources from Ethiopia itself, but it could also open up trade routes to many colonies and countries Italy wind that've had trade with otherwise. Italy could end up quite a bit wealthier than OTL, provided that the colony isn't a strain on the countries finances, which on the other hand, it may be, but I kinda doubt it.

Just one thought on this idea that came to me.

 

[katchen]

If Italy got Sudan from the Mahdi it would want Libya from the Ottomans more than ever so that it could build a Tripoli-Khartoum-Massaua-Addis Ababa-Mogadishu Railroad. Ethiopia would be a huge coffee and sugar producer with cotton in the Sudan and cattle from Somalia. A lot of Italians might settle in Ethiopia as well, given how many Italians were leaving Italy for the US at that time.
Considering how cordial relations were between Italy and France, we might see cooperation on a trans-African railroad from Dakar to Djibouti just as the Portuguese collaborated with the British and Belgians on the Benguela Railroad.

If all these railroads got finished before WWI (or between the wars, Libya would easily lose it's Arab (or possibly even it's Muslim) identity, submerged underneath waves of Christian Italian and Ethiopian settlers. And if France follows suit with trans-Saharan railroads, the same loss of Arab identity under waves of African migrants occurs in Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia even if African migrants do not go to Metropolitan France (or Italy) in large numbers.North Africa beyond Egypt becomes de-Arabized and Africanized.

 

[Styrofoam Boots]

Would the POD be too late for a French Egypt? Since the Italians reach Sudan before the British do maybe it prevents them from Reaching it.

 

[lukedalton]

Well in case of a victory at Adua we will have italian colonial effort mantain a level of aggressivess in the region, translating Rome will try to keep some 'strategic' Sudanes position who had occupied during the Wadist war as a mean to block insurgent raid and later give back to the British when they returned like Cassala.

So at this stage we will have, an slightly enlarged Eritrea at Ethiopia expense plus some border zone with Sudan is the top for Italy at the time, between the need to replenish force after the battle with Abyssinia and the Mahdist rebellion on Sudan making incursion in the Italian colonies and the fact that both France and UK will not really like a much greater landgrab in territories they think as their, so Italy for now is done.

After that an accelerated conquest/aquisition of Somalia will the priority as creating the framework for the conquest of Lybia...but Crispi is a much lesser politician of Giolitti and things can go sour but on the other case without the need to 'avenge' Adua if the Porte offer for Lybia (the territory will be still coveted for strategic and prestige reason) a deal similar to Bosnia (as done in OTL) Rome will probably accept.

The big change will be in the italian internal politics, without the Adua defeat PM Francesco Crispi will keep the power for some more years (he died 5 years later in OTL) and this mean that the pro-cp, francophobe protitype of the DUCE has still more time to govern the nation, so we can have bigger tension with the socialist and the attempt to patch things with France (even in consideration to a possible conquest of Lybia) delayed.

 

[Zoidberg12]

Would the POD be too late for a French Egypt? Since the Italians reach Sudan before the British do maybe it prevents them from Reaching it.

The POD would be in the 1890's, so its too late for the French Egypt, even if the Italians get more of the Sudan.

Actually them getting the Sudan and starting the war earlier is an interesting idea. Why would they start an invasion of Ethiopia earlier though. Was there anything delaying it IOTL?

Well in case of a victory at Adua we will have italian colonial effort mantain a level of aggressivess in the region, translating Rome will try to keep some 'strategic' Sudanes position who had occupied during the Wadist war as a mean to block insurgent raid and later give back to the British when they returned like Cassala.

So at this stage we will have, an slightly enlarged Eritrea at Ethiopia expense plus some border zone with Sudan is the top for Italy at the time, between the need to replenish force after the battle with Abyssinia and the Mahdist rebellion on Sudan making incursion in the Italian colonies and the fact that both France and UK will not really like a much greater landgrab in territories they think as their, so Italy for now is done.

After that an accelerated conquest/aquisition of Somalia will the priority as creating the framework for the conquest of Lybia...but Crispi is a much lesser politician of Giolitti and things can go sour but on the other case without the need to 'avenge' Adua if the Porte offer for Lybia (the territory will be still coveted for strategic and prestige reason) a deal similar to Bosnia (as done in OTL) Rome will probably accept.

The big change will be in the italian internal politics, without the Adua defeat PM Francesco Crispi will keep the power for some more years (he died 5 years later in OTL) and this mean that the pro-cp, francophobe protitype of the DUCE has still more time to govern the nation, so we can have bigger tension with the socialist and the attempt to patch things with France (even in consideration to a possible conquest of Lybia) delayed.

Very interesting scenario. I love all the facts about Italian politics. So I imagine the Italian government would crack down harder on the Facsi Siciliani, which could causxe more problems later.