WI: Italy win the 11th battle of the isonzo

[lukedalton]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eleventh_Battle_of_the_Isonzo

The italian army almost succeeded in break the A-h line during the offensive, but between bad luck (italian shell hit the deposit of the movable bridge), the italian artillery being still lacking in training and not capable of full supporting the infantry and some A-h general keeping a cool head and succesfully organize an orderly retreat on the next prepared line of defense...the final result was a tattical success but a strategic defeat.

If instead they can break through the A-H line giving them their own version of Caporetto and lay siege to Lubiana (the next line of defense IRC) and Trieste what will happen?

 

[Evil Crusader]

A much-needed morale boost, and the A-H may well start crumbling as they are pretty much as exhausted as OTL, plus they just got beat and the Italians are close to striking range to Vienna.

I don't think Trieste would be really defended, as the rail lines would be compromised by the Advance towards the Ljubjana Gap anyways. At worst, separate peace happens.

 

[The Undead Martyr]

An attack on Trieste seems inevitable, possibly including naval elements given the RMs dominance in the Adriatic.

Austria won't sign a separate peace IMO given Italian demands,which will only grow more intemperate after such a success. Germany is forced to divert more troops to prop up the dual monarchy. France probably does much better in the coming months. Croatia IMO tries to split off earlier as a result of Entente meddling and to preempt Italian claims to dalmatia. I'd say that the dual monarchy probably collapses around the time the Russians do, they'd be lucky to last the year. Also the Kerensky offensive probably succeeds (IIRC it started reasonably well) so the provisional government survives, and this probably is the trigger for the armistice.

All things considered the war probably concludes a few months to a year ahead of OTL and Italy is much more respected at the peace table, while the US isn't quite as influential given that they would still be ramping up and the Allies are somewhat less in shambles.

Also I pity the Turks, who will be fed to the wolves here. Italy gets her OTL borders in the adriatic without any drama since she's already occupying everything and the Entente arent going to care if Wilson throws a fit, plus what she was promised from Turkey (cant remember the treaty) as well as a protectorate over Albania.

Fascism may still happen but may well be avoided. That and no bolsheviks... could make for a better world. Or perhaps with the Entente stronger imperialism lasts longer...

I might have to think about this one.

 

[Evil Crusader]

As late as well into May 1917, the Croatian Parliament still favoured Union rather than independence. Unless A-H crumbles as badly as OTL, they'll be more hesitant to go forward.

All in all, it seems like Italy's wet dream - the London Pact is still secret, so it's far more likely to be respected. The Fourteen Points are still in the future, and they got their boots on the ground (at least better than OTL), especially if they finally capitalize on maritime superiority to launch an invasion of Dalmatia.
Fascism doesn't happen, and probably Italy is more respected and not antagonized, so they get Smyrna and the southern Turkish coast over Greek objections (and the Turks are less likely to pick a fight with a Great Power that has proven itself).

 

[lukedalton]

Thanks, my biggest question is about the russian revolution; with the A-H suffering (in the best case scenario for Italy) his own Caporetto how will develop the eastern front? Germany will be so hard pressed to prop up the Hapsburg to postpone the battle of Juga and the succesfull conquest of Riga and more importantly... butterfly away the Kornilov affair giving at the Russian provisional goverment of Kerensky some other lifetime?

Frankly having Russia at the peace conference as a more involved player can cause even more tension and problem of OTL, as they will try to maximalize their gain and avoid the break-up of the nation but unfortunely both Finnish and Polish have other idea (as many other)

 

[Evil Crusader]

Yeah, the Kerensky Government is still weak enough that it will find a way or three to blunder. It should still outlast A-H long enough to claim victory, but it will probably be unable to do more than the USSR did, undercut by a weaker government and reluctant army.

 

[Salvador79]

I don't see how a different course of the Eleventh Battle of the Isonzo would butterfly the Kornilov affair? If it did, and then there'd be no conquests of Riga, no Operation Albion etc., then Kerensky might stay in power until early 1918, and if he manages to have a Constituent Assembly elected by then, then something like the October Revolution becomes significantly less probable.

But if the Kornilov Affair still happens, there mere absence of the Battle of Riga and Operation Albion is probably not doing more than buying Kerensky a few more days or weeks.

That is, if an A-H Caporetto would really preclude the Battle of Riga and Operation Albion, for these involved small forces, including some (Ostseeflotte) which would not be of any assistance to A-H against Italy in the Alps.

 

[lukedalton]

I don't see how a different course of the Eleventh Battle of the Isonzo would butterfly the Kornilov affair? If it did, and then there'd be no conquests of Riga, no Operation Albion etc., then Kerensky might stay in power until early 1918, and if he manages to have a Constituent Assembly elected by then, then something like the October Revolution becomes significantly less probable.

I know is difficult and very unlikey, still the A-H suffering a breakthrough of the Isonzo line and having and losing a lot of material and men will force a general rethinking of the military situation and various deployment...i agree that the Riga operation is difficult to avoid due to both event being almost at the same time and the principal immediate effect will felt on the Romanian and Macedonian front...i ask because i don't know that much of the Russian revolution expecially in that complicated moment.

 

[Evil Crusader]

I don't see how a different course of the Eleventh Battle of the Isonzo would butterfly the Kornilov affair?

The Battle lasted a whole month. If a breakthrough happens soon enough, Germany will redeploy too to some extent (like the Entente did after OTL Caporetto). At that point, the different strategic situation may encourage Kornilov to fight rather than go topple the Government.

 

[The Undead Martyr]

A general breakthrough in the Alps has broader implications, even if it does not immediately end the war. I can believe that the shifting momentum would culminate in an early collapse of A-H in 1918 and the Kerensky government limping over the finish line (though what comes next is a different story).
France is very likely to renew her offensives alongside the Russians. The Germans as mentioned will need to redeploy to plug the breach, the eventual breakthrough will encourage the rest of the Entente that the end is nigh, and that if they just keep bashing their heads against the wall they might just break through... I doubt the French might have stunning success but they will still bleed the Germans, and combined with the Russian efforts will IMO bleed the Germans sooner than OTL.

Finally Italian democracy, such as it is, is far from safe. The successful victory, earlier end to the war, and more "honorable" peace certainly help, but the key factors allowing fascism- an ossified oligarchy, economic collapse, the brutal authoritarianism used to compel the war effort, growth of the labor movement, massive inflation- will not be handwaved away by an "unmutilated" victory. In that regards no one (save the US and Japan) can really "win" a World War One which does not end early (such as a German capture of Paris in 1914), merely survive it- and face the aftermath.

 

[Salvador79]

The Eleventh Battle on the Isonzo happens almost at the same time as the Kornilov coup and the Fall of Riga. Even if the Italians break through in the first week, that's too late to stop the German advance on Riga, and too late to prevent Kornilov's botched coup. Now I agree that Germany might deploy troops from elsewhere (mostly Romania, I guess, and perhaps thinning out the front line divisions across Lithuania, Belarus etc., too) to help A-H stop an Italian advance in September, but that needn't prevent Operation Albion since that was mostly a navy operation. So, no big changes for Russia, as I see it.

Things are entirely different if the Italians already break through in the Tenth Battle of the Isonzo (instead of the Eleventh), for then, A-H might pull out important troops from the East and throw them against the Italians, which maybe, just maybe (it's a really big maybe) helps the Russians to turn the later Kerensky Offensive into a success, but I somehow doubt that given the state of the Russian army at the time. If THAT happens, Austria-Hungary is royally screwed and its covert attempts at achieving a separate peace might proceed with more weight behind them, although I don't quite see a way out for K.u.K. Karl which doesn't let his house of cards collapse on itself nonetheless. But in THIS scenario, Kerensky experiences no July Days, the coalition is maybe not really strengthened but also not seriously weakened, and with less pressure along the South-Western Front and maybe also the Northern Front, as the Germans move troops around, Russia might remain stable throughout 1917, although problems are still plentiful.

 

[Flavius Aetius]

Great idea for a timeline I may have mentioned this in another thread! If I had the writing ability I’d have a try

On topic I think the consequences of an Italian breakthrough in 1917 would be an earlier collapse of AH followed by Bulgaria perhaps suing for peace with flow on effects for Romania. Unsure how it would effect the western front though.

Also would this butterfly away the arditi??

 

[lukedalton]

Also would this butterfly away the arditi??

They were enstablished just before the offensive, so while they will exist...if, and if, A-H collapse earlier they will no be expanded as OTL and so there will be a less recruitment ground for the fascist.

 

[Salvador79]

If A-H disintegrates and Bulgaria Drops Out, there's no way Germany Fights on in the West. It would soon be encircled.

 

[Flavius Aetius]

They were enstablished just before the offensive, so while they will exist...if, and if, A-H collapse earlier they will no be expanded as OTL and so there will be a less recruitment ground for the fascist.

Further, would this butterfly the second abissinian war? Would there be a WW2 if any description?

 

[lukedalton]

Further, would this butterfly the second abissinian war? Would there be a WW2 if any description?

The Abyssinian war depend by Benny come to power...still possible, but much more difficult than OTL if the war end earlier and the italian economy is in better shape (as the country in general due to less sufference) and/if the Fiume takeover by D'Annunzio not happen.
Regarding WW2...call me pessimistic but i doubt that even in this situation the peace treaty will succeed in create a stable peace, too much blood and treasure has been spilled and Wilson will still try to put his belief while the great powers try to play their usual games, not the recipe for long term stability

 

[The Undead Martyr]

The French if anything might go fascist here. The possiblity is rather more plausible than most realize (bearing in mind that a native French fascist state is not going to be at all friendly to a Nazi Germany and would probably strangle it in the cradle over the rhineland) albeit not easy given the strong liberal and progressive tendencies in interwar France. Have a disastrous offensive as a result (if the Italians can take the izonzo then we can reach the rhine!), a roughly comparable peace (save for the Balkans where I expect an Itlaian client state in Croatia on top of the postwar borders in Istria, to day nothing of interventions in Greece, Turkey or Albania). Toss in Clemencau being a little less lucky when he got shot at and the Great Dperession kicking off a few years early and the Third Republic could very well topple down along with the Weimar.

In any case the Versailles peace was fundamentally a result of Anerrica effectively dictating terms to France and the rest of the continent, so the peace is probably radically different with Italy successful and the Americans effectively out of the war. Perhaps Germany is completely dismantled; at the least I would expect a Bavarian state to emerge.

 

[lukedalton]

My general idea after the italian victory is the following:

- the Austrian retreat on a defensive line near/around Lujbljanan but have basically suffered their own caporetto in term of loss of men and material, this from a strict military pow mean that from now till the army is rebuilt operation in the Romanian and Macedonian front will be merely defensive; this change give Bucharest a lot of relief and buttefly their surrender.
- Trieste is under siege but no offensive is launched, Cadorna don't want any urban fight and politically the city need to be conquered as intact as possible
- In term of A-H internal politic, the italian success bring absolute chaos, with the Kaiser and many other desiring a separate peace and even ready to give Italy concession (but not enough to satisfy Italy) while the inner tension in the empire are coming to the point of explosion; Germany will probably try to take control of A-H and put the Kaiser in 'protective custody'...while this can work in the short period, the risk of total collapse of the Empire are not increased.
- without the need to support Italy (and the scare of the italians being knocked out), Entente operation will continue and the probability of a general German retreat (as planned) are high, on the russian front i image that the negotiation will be stalled as the soviets will thing that A-h will soon collapse and so world revolution will be imminent...on the other side the German will need to free troops as soon as possible, so IMVHO they will launch a massive offensive with everything they have (chemical weapon included) ASAP to knock the URSS out of the war definitevely
- L and H now face the decision to hold defensive position and start negotiation immediately or try to launch a final offensive to try to gain better term...while the first is the most logical decision, L and H will probably choose the second, unless the situation is so against them that they will give up.
In any case war will end by February/March 1918