WI: Italy Stays Neutral in WWI

What would happen if Italy decided not to join the allies in 1915 and instead stayed neutral? IIRC the general public did not want to go to war.
 
Alot depends on how the Entente reacts, particularly in terms of attempts to blockade the CP. Italy is a bit harder to just shove around and force onto strict "Import Rationing" and prevent transhipment, since pushing too hard runs the risk of backlash and Italy actually JOINING the CP if it's all sticks, no carrots. This means the Habsburg Empire not only gets a breather on its Western Front (which gives them more to shore up either the Gallician defense or launch and earlier knock out punch on Serbia) but greater agricultural access and a wider smuggling gap so more robustness to the CP civilian economy. Rome is going to be making bank here.

Granted, Conrad could very easily flush the advantage down the drain given his... cavalier attitudes towards offensives this early in the conflict. Still, Austria will maintain it's military autonomy a bit longer, and especially if they hit Serbia harder and quicker there's a possability of events in the Aegean getting affected. Earlier shipping in of shells and advisors to bolster the Turks and maybe spooking the Greeks into not allowing the Allies into Salonika (or resisting if they do)
 
CP victory by 1917 at the latest with Italy joining the Germans opportunistically after the Russian Revolution or staying out entirely.

The Italian Front tied down millions of Austrian troops. A neutral Italy means those men are free to fight Russia. Meaning Russia collapses sooner and Germany has more men to fight in the west...
 

Deleted member 94680

Italy, quite literally, could not afford to join the CP.

A neutral Italy probably means a more stable political environment and no “mutilated victory” to give grist to the fascist mill.
 
Italy, quite literally, could not afford to join the CP.

A neutral Italy probably means a more stable political environment and no “mutilated victory” to give grist to the fascist mill.

Probablly waives away the Italian facisits entirely. No mass of disgruntled ex soldiers, or underpaid urban workers.
 
A neutral Italy is a plus for the CP. In addition to a markedly reduced need for A-H troops along the border, and the usage of supplies there, there are other advantages. The A-H navy is no longer firmly locked up, while the geography is still restrictive actually getting to the broader Med is now much easier, especially for submarines. This complicates matters for the RN and MN. No matter what, a neutral Italy is going to mean more goods get to the CP. This includes the usual Italian exports as well as transshipped goods. If the RN/MN are enforcing the sort of blockade on Italy they did on Atlantic coast neutrals, this will piss the USA off even more, and add the Italian-Americans to other CP derived ethnic groups who agitate on behalf of the CP.

A-H is still shambolic, but no Italian Front means they do better against the Russians and the Russians win the race to internal collapse sooner than OTL. OTL it was a pretty close run thing.
 
Italy is the biggest winner by staying out of WW1, from whatever POV one looks at it: economy, political stability, avoiding having 3.6% of her population killed (1,240,000 killed, 590,000 of whom civilians), avoiding the almost complete destruction of Friuli.
 

Deleted member 1487

Italy, quite literally, could not afford to join the CP.

A neutral Italy probably means a more stable political environment and no “mutilated victory” to give grist to the fascist mill.
Well, there would probably be some unrest about the 'not joining in to get the spoils' as well as the how Irredentist movement.

Italy is the biggest winner by staying out of WW1, from whatever POV one looks at it: economy, political stability, avoiding having 3.6% of her population killed (1,240,000 killed, 590,000 of whom civilians), avoiding the almost complete destruction of Friuli.
https://encyclopedia.1914-1918-online.net/article/war_losses_italy
The 'excess civilian deaths' seem to be directly attributable to the spread of the flu pandemic, so if the war is on it is likely to hit Italy too, just perhaps not as hard without them actively being in the war.
 
Well, there would probably be some unrest about the 'not joining in to get the spoils' as well as the how Irredentist movement.


https://encyclopedia.1914-1918-online.net/article/war_losses_italy
The 'excess civilian deaths' seem to be directly attributable to the spread of the flu pandemic, so if the war is on it is likely to hit Italy too, just perhaps not as hard without them actively being in the war.

The pandemic will come and take its grim toll no matter what IMO. Not even China was spared IIRC.
 

Deleted member 1487

The pandemic will come and take its grim toll no matter what IMO. Not even China was spared IIRC.
There is an argument that without the US joining the war the pandemic is contained and doesn't spread, as it gestated in US barracks as they built up an expeditionary army and then brought it with them. Italian neutrality resulting in a CP win in 1917 before the US intervenes might well contain it. That said there is another theory it originated in a base in France in 1916:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Hypotheses_about_the_source

Which means it wouldn't necessarily prevent the spread. Of course if the war is over before it has a chance to spread much beyond the epicenter then perhaps it is contained or at least blunted to some extent.
 

Driftless

Donor
What lessons does the Italian military learn by not participating on the strategic, operational, and equipment levels? I'd guess there are pluses and minuses either way (in the war/out of the war)
 
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The pandemic will come and take its grim toll no matter what IMO. Not even China was spared IIRC.

The theory I find most convincing is that the Chinese Labor Corps brought the virus to Europe and the virus actually originated in China. It’s impossible to know for sure, though.
 
Even as a hostile neutral the CP gains. The UK must buy off Italian neutrality almost to the degree it bought Italian belligerency, the prime export being coal to Italy, and the Italians can respect the blockade, Germany would prefer they not, but assuming they do we still gain a lot. no additional front to waste resources on likely quals what could be smufggled to the CP, A-H can attempt to interdict Entente shipping and likely the threat alone bleeds off enough resources to alter the RN blockade and forces arrayed against Germany by just enough to keep the naval war more interesting. Serbia is bottled up and overrun just a little sooner cascading into the Balkans and Aegean, Greece is less likely to be pushed into the Entente, Romania too, Bulgaria is more secure in being part of the CP, Russia faces more A-H efforts that Germany is not having to provide for so it has just that much more to devote to the West. All degrees of change, so the CPs can trade some draws for wins, some losses for draws and some wins for successes.

Italy might simple ride out the war without any of the profit but taking no losses. Post-war the economy might still flounder as all the other powers stumble, Italy still has many unresolved claims against A-H, designs on Albania, friction with the OE or Turkey, and points where it might get on the wrong side of Greece, France and/or the UK. The Fascist evolution might never spark, indeed Mussolini might stay a socialist firebrand. The UK should still back Italy into the 1930s as a counter weight to A-H and as a distraction for France, without the Mussolini rabble rousing Italy should be a good ersatz ally, its internal chaos enough to keep it toothless, but it should be sliding left, a social democratic government should take root in the benign economy and peaceful med, I doubt Italy will do that much better but it will be the most prosperous southern European state, a regional power and anchored in both Libya and Africa, parlaying its place into better alliance with Britain, a good third power spot or realigning with resurgent Germany if ever A-H and it can bury the hatchet. I might push forward the economic betterment by a decade, Italy has lots of suitors and its biggest market will be the European Customs union Germany builds, staying aloof but amenable should give Italy solid place to work from. For me this Italy might look familiar on surface but oddly unrecognizable.
 

Deleted member 1487

Spanish flu was the biggest cause, but famine, malnutrition and other resurgent disase took their tools
Sure, especially in the occupied zone, but I haven't seen that malnutrition was a major factor in Entente nations during the war. Arguably it was more common problem in some countries which did not provide survivor benefits for families of soldiers killed and they then lost their primary source of income and became destitute, but even then it is hard to say how many people that specifically affected.
 
Spanish flu was the biggest cause, but famine, malnutrition and other resurgent disase took their tools

Adding to this, remember that poor nutrition does make one more vulnerable to communial diseases, so more robust food access (as well as lower concentration of populations in tight, unsanitary conditions like war factory work) will help blunt the impact of the Flu to a certain degree
 

trajen777

Banned
If Italy does not enter the war then the immediate situation is and the secondary situation.

A. 1914 -
1. AH had a few troops that on the Italian border and this would not change
2. France has to keep an increased force on the border


1915
1. Supplies flow to the CP thru this source -- additional manf products in Italy
2. AH can have a significant force that will be able to be utilized on the eastern front ( Cumulative casualties of the numerous battles of the Isonzo were enormous. Half of the entire Italian war casualty total – some 300,000 of 600,000 – were suffered along the Soča (Isonzo). Austro-Hungarian losses, while by no means as numerous were nevertheless high at around 400,000 (of an overall total of around 1.2 million casualties)https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_Front_(World_War_I)
3. A quicker death to Serbia
4. Romania comes in on the CP side
5. Much higher Russian losses
6. Russia out of the war in 17
7. Allied forces never try invasion of Turkey -- AH fleet more effective
8. Greater threat to the British shipping fleet going thru the Med (without the Italian fleet )
9. Utilization of more forces in the Russian front allows more forces in the western front for the Germans -- or greater focus on the Russian front
1916
1. Combined CP forces on Russian front increases the loss ratio higher in to the CP advantage as more CP troops have more firepower and critical mass at each battle.
2. Russian forces are spread thinner and increased losses occur.
3. Captured Russia ag areas increase food supply to CP as well as Romanian oil and wheat.
4. Italian exports increase as Allies are fearful of Italy coming in on the the CP side results in a very porous blockade.
5. Italian workers flood into CP to increase production for higher wages they can get in Italy.
6. Russia collapses (most likely early 17) but are increasingly ineffective in 16
1917
1. Russia out of the war in early 17
2. No pressure on Germany for unrestricted sub campaign (food from Russia, Romania, and fertilizer from Italy (imports from SA) increase food production in Germany and Italy, as well as other supply's. USA does not come into the war
3. Germany with AH (1 mm troops), German forces from the east, and support troops from Romania & Bulgaria & Ottomans attack the western front.
4. War ends with overwhelming CP victory or more likely a negotiated agreement with big gains in the east and moderate gains in the west.

 
4. Italian exports increase as Allies are fearful of Italy coming in on the the CP side results in a very porous blockade.
Is there a possibility that the open Italian flank will influence the whole British Blockade? As in the USA (and other neutrals) are able to trade more with the CP and as such seek ever more access and the neutrals in Northern Europe and Scandinavia may present a tempting path.
And as such they press ever harder on the legaly shakey distant blockade the HSF forces the RN into.
 

Driftless

Donor
Would the British/French navies either try to bottle up the A-H navy in the Adriatic, or even try to press home an attack on bases there? Some combination of subs and surface ships?
 
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