WI Italy remains neutral in WWII?

[La Rouge Beret]

Although this topic has been debated, my POD would be that Italy recognises its military weakness in the Spanish Civil War. Consequently it concentrates on reforming / improving its economic base and offers to support Nazi Germany with a volunteer division (ala Blue Division) / Volunteer air force units. This offer would include production of german armaments / tanks / aircraft? So if Italy confined itself to supplying men and material to Nazi Germany would this strengthen their war machine?

 

[Mario Rossi]

Although this topic has been debated, my POD would be that Italy recognises its military weakness in the Spanish Civil War. Consequently it concentrates on reforming / improving its economic base and offers to support Nazi Germany with a volunteer division (ala Blue Division) / Volunteer air force units. This offer would include production of german armaments / tanks / aircraft? So if Italy confined itself to supplying men and material to Nazi Germany would this strengthen their war machine?

Ironically it is believed by several authors that indeed was the Spanish Civil War "success" to have boosted Mussolini's confidence in Italian military war-readiness. Moreover, even if among endless oscillations, the Duce was at the time already eager of throw the country into the imminent conflict, this also because he was dramatically unable to comprehend the long term consequences of waging war against the British Empire and United States.

But if the SCW should end in a defeat of Franco or in a stalemate, many things could be reasonably be different

 

[Blackfox5]

Whose war machine? Italy's or Germany's?

In either event, this will not change the course of the war. Germany will still be defeated. Italy will be spared the horrors of war though. It's likely that so will Greece, Yugoslavia, and possibly Bulgaria with no Italian aggression.

Germany is simply not able to succeed against the coalition of countries it is gathering against it. Italy is not able to reform and develop sufficiently in the little amount of time it has. It is several decades away from truly being a peer of Britain, France, or Germany as opposed to it being somewhere between the great powers and the second tier countries of Europe like Netherlands or Romania.

Italy will be able to provide some of Germany's war needs, but not a lot. It is very dependant on foreign resources, and that will be subject to the British blockade. It just doesn't have the rare metals, iron, oil, or other materials needed. The British knows that Germany could use neutral countries to circumvent the blockade, and it has policies in place to limit that. Any attempt by Italy to produce war materials for Germany will come at the expense of developing its own armed forces. So while it could provide something, it won't be decisive.

The only thing Italy's neutrality will do is affect the war in the Pacific. No Italian war against Britain means Britain is not absorbed with fighting in North Africa and the Mediterranean. This means Britain could divert a substantial fleet to the Pacific (and troops to defend Burma and Singapore) if needed which will change Japanese calculations about going to war in late 1941. If that butterflies away a strike against the Dutch East Indies, it prevents Pearl Harbor.

 

[Julian]

Italy's economy was likely to stagnate and collapse by the early 50s. Signs of a major slowdown appeared just before and in the early years of the war.

 

[Shaby]

Regardless of SCW result, Mussolini enters war once it appears Germany is winning, e.g. Paris falls. He didn't want to go to war before 1942, being well aware of Italian weakness. But he didn't want to be left out of peace treaty with Wallies.

 

[Baruch]

I would imagine Adolf would be most grateful for Italian neutrality if he had even a hint of their competence in OTL.

 

[lukedalton]

Well the Pod seem that Benny will be convinced by all his ministry and the king that Italy must stay out of the war because the Abyssian and Spanish Civil war had basically depleted national reserve and all the armed forces need a modernization cycle, we can say that he has a moment of inner clarity, swallow is pride and decide to accept the little bribe that the Uk and France proposed and stay neutral, limiting is involvment in sell weapons and materials to the Nazi and permit volunteers to partecipate in the war.
The Uk in this case will do nothing so stupid like a blockade because this will bring Italy in the war, the last thing that London want as she, for now, can barely hold Germany so they will grumble, protest but not much more, at least till the war go very bad for the German in this case Benny will try to distance himself from Adolf.
What will happen?
Italy will skip the half million of death and all the destruction of the war, lot less of debt and the program to bring people in Lybia will continue and when oil is discovered the jackpot will be hit; in the meantime money will be done selling material at Germany and the rest of axis (and probably to the allies too). Benny will try to attack Yugoslavia so to not look too weak and demonstrate to be a thoug guy, and in this case (with no other committement, more time for prepare and an already drafted plan for invasion) things can go rather smoothly; After the war Italy will be a too strong nation to be cast aside like Spain expecially in relation to the cold war.
UK: No East or North African Front, and later Greece campaign; so more resource can be diverted to the Pacific theatre, making the japanese less succesfull in their invasion (Singapore hold) and in general little less dependant of USA land-lease (not by much just a hinch less); on the downside more resource can make Churchill willing to try one of his 'audacious' scheme maybe a premature operation Torch.
Germany: No North-African front and later Italian front, so Rommel can go in Russia and the paratroopers too, no need to bailout Italy in Greece or Yugoslavia so Russia can be attacked when Adolf want. In the end probably a more succesfull eastern campaign (Moscow taken?) and a little more hard nuts to crack in the west (and with troops and tattics more green as not bloodied by North Africa and Italy) but in the end Germany will lose, with a war who last a little more and with the A-bomb launched in Europe instead of Japan

 

[La Rouge Beret]

This was the scenario that I was envisioning essentially a stronger Germany without the problem of a 'soft underbelly,' however Germany will still lose the war. I would wonder how this would effect the war in the Pacific, would the British hold onto Singapore? Would Admiral Cunningham make his name in the Pacific?

 

[Paul V McNutt]

I thought the easiest way for this to happen was to have France and Britain hold off Germany in 1940. Then when Germany was on the ropes. Mussolini would join the Allies. That means a three way cold war with Portugal, Yugoslavia, ( still a monarchy) Greece and Turkey joining an alliance with Italy.

 

[BriefMortal]

I would imagine Adolf would be most grateful for Italian neutrality if he had even a hint of their competence in OTL.

He would have been grateful for that anyway OTL.

 

[MattII]

Well Rommel would see service on the Eastern Front, which might see one of the army groups have just a little more success in the early stages of Barbarossa, although the long term effect would probably be nought.

 

[Ward]

Well Rommel would see service on the Eastern Front, which might see one of the army groups have just a little more success in the early stages of Barbarossa, although the long term effect would probably be nought.

Rommel will probably lose his Armd Corps as he runs it out of Supply's he was never very good at logistics .

 

[Julian]

Rommel will probably lose his Armd Corps as he runs it out of Supply's he was never very good at logistics .

Rommel was fine with logistics. The problem in North Africa always was that the Germans and Italians lacked the logistic capacity to maintain the campaign, particularly when their command structures remained seperated and cooperated.....poorly, and the Royal Navy controlled the seas.

 

[Wolfpaw]

The problem is that Mussolini was basically forced into war by his own ideology. The Fascist regime had been in place for 20 years; it was getting old, flabby, unpopular and unimpressive. When Germany started looking good, Italy was clearly losing her "special relationship with history" and Fascism was beginning to ring ever more hollow.

If Mussolini doesn't go to war with somebody, his regime is just going to continue rotting from the inside out until it comes to crisis.

 

[Devolved]

Although this topic has been debated, my POD would be that Italy recognises its military weakness in the Spanish Civil War. Consequently it concentrates on reforming / improving its economic base and offers to support Nazi Germany with a volunteer division (ala Blue Division) / Volunteer air force units. This offer would include production of german armaments / tanks / aircraft? So if Italy confined itself to supplying men and material to Nazi Germany would this strengthen their war machine?

Italian foreign policy was in many ways a logical extension of WW1. 'Sacred egoism'.

To put it another way; Italy was like a pack of hyenas waiting to feast on someone elses kill.

In World War One they betrayed their Allies and stayed neutral until they were bought by the highest bidder. When they entered they expected the Austrians to collapse quickly and hoped to grab some territory which they felt rightly belonged to Italy which somehow included territory occupied by Germans and Slovenes and Croats.

In World War Two it was pretty much the same. Stay neutral, see who would offer the best bribes and then attack the weakest.

Then in 1943 they changed sides. They failed to stay neutral TWICE.

In

 

[Esopo]

Italian foreign policy was in many ways a logical extension of WW1. 'Sacred egoism'.

To put it another way; Italy was like a pack of hyenas waiting to feast on someone elses kill.

In World War One they betrayed their Allies and stayed neutral until they were bought by the highest bidder. When they entered they expected the Austrians to collapse quickly and hoped to grab some territory which they felt rightly belonged to Italy which somehow included territory occupied by Germans and Slovenes and Croats.

In World War Two it was pretty much the same. Stay neutral, see who would offer the best bribes and then attack the weakest.

Then in 1943 they changed sides. They failed to stay neutral TWICE.

In

Just no. Italy didnt betray the CP, it was austria who didnt respect its deals with italy when occupied bosnia, and again when it attacked serbia. and even if mussolini was a cinical douchebag, he wouldnt have attacked germany in 1940, even if he was losing.

 

[Mario Rossi]

The Fascist regime had been in place for 20 years; it was getting old, flabby, unpopular and unimpressive.
[...]
If Mussolini doesn't go to war with somebody, his regime is just going to continue rotting from the inside out until it comes to crisis.

I disagree. OVRA (Fascist Secret Police) reports, including of course some never showed to the Duce himself, showed that Italian people was more than relieved by the starting non-belligerent stance and that feelings toward Germany were not warm at all. Popularity of Fascism as many other dictatorships was strongly influenced by how the people itself felt satisfied by his everyday life, that even not being comparable with (for example) United Kingdom, was better than the former Liberal Italy era for sure. Several historians say that this would have been accomplished anyway being general momentum of history towards progress. We will never know it, anyway.

 

[lukedalton]

The problem is that Mussolini was basically forced into war by his own ideology. The Fascist regime had been in place for 20 years; it was getting old, flabby, unpopular and unimpressive. When Germany started looking good, Italy was clearly losing her "special relationship with history" and Fascism was beginning to ring ever more hollow.

At the time Mussolini popularity was very high and frankly the fact of not entering the general conflict will only improve that. Honestly for all the talking without the war and the consequent human and material loss, Mussolini regime will be pretty solid and virtually without internal opposition.

If Mussolini doesn't go to war with somebody, his regime is just going to continue rotting from the inside out until it comes to crisis.

For that there is Yugoslavia, due to pregress territorial dispute and for getting more influence in the balkans, and without the need of the Afrika korps in Lybia Benny has more leeway with his plan of invasion (with enough garantee for Germany), Greece is out of the question because too close to the UK.

 

[Replicator]

Italy out of the war is quite a good thing for Germany.

No war in the Meditarenean+Italy+the Balkans.

All the planes, tanks and U boats that were sent south can be redirected east and west. That means Rommel and his Russland Korps with hundreds of additional tanks and planes can be sent to Russia.

A few hundred more fighters and flak for air defence.

And some 20 or 30 more U boats for the battle of the atlantic.

Also where do the Allies land in 1943???
Stalin will be quite mad that the Allies did absolutely nothing in 1942 exept bomb a few german cities - so they will have to land in Northern France in 1943 against strong German forces and will be wiped out.

 

[Adler]

With Italy out of the war, the Wehrmacht would have launched Unternehmen Barbarossa earlier with more men. That means Moscow would have fallen. And with Moscow the central transport hub of Russia, causing many logistical problems for the Soviets. Now it would be only a matter of time until the Soviets would be beaten behind the Ural. That would mean, too, the Germans had much more resources, despite a really nasty partisan war. Thus in the west it would be more of a stalemate. Hopefully for the world Hitler dies soon, one way or the other.

Adler