What if Italy remained seperate? With a POD after 1800, what would the effects of European and World history be?
Thats what I was thinking. But how would it work down the line. Going into WW1?To be honest, there wouldn't be a huge difference, save if the POD is Garibaldi getting killed.
What's easiest in this scenario is an Italy divided between a Savoyard north and a Bourbon south, with a rump Papal State that would become a bone of contention.
Smaller Italy, or several pieces of Italy stay out of WW1. This frees up large numbers of German and Austrian soldiers to other fronts.
It also means that Rommel's first military campaigns occur against more competent opponents. And given the risks he took in Italy, might result in his killing or capture.
While the overt effects might be very small, there might be thousands of butterflies let loose. for example
1)Libya might remain independent as three separate kingdoms, or be divided into halves by France and England.
2)Mussolini has no march on Rome. He might be a goofball leader of a small city state.
3) Venice remains Austrian. Think listening to waltzes during your gondola ride along the canals.
Through both world wars Italy was more a load than a player. consequences of not having to deal with the load might make the side they were stuck with more successful.
What? No. Butterflies. Rommel won't be born with such an early POD. There might not even be any world wars.
In any case this means Austria still has one less possible front to worry about given a general European conflict, especially if it retains its influence over Italy as the Congress of Vienna created.
I was thinking that it would be Piedmont-Sardinia, Papal States and the Two Sicilies as left over.IMHO, the way the Congress of Vienna set up Italy cannot be a viable solution in the medium to long term. It came out as a very unstable configuration, and it went through a number of crisis (1820, 1839 and 1848) even before IOTL unification in 1861: every time Austria had to intervene militarily to prop up its clients, and every time it became more difficult. It is not a case that in 1859-60 all the Italian states outside of Piedmont-Sardinia collapsed like a house of cards (and the Pope was barely able to hold on to Latium just because of French intervention). My reading is that even if the 1859 war is somehow butterflied away (say because Nappy changes his mind for any reason) there will be some other opportunity in the late 1860s or early 1870s, and in the end Austria will be expelled from Italy.
This said, it appears that the best opportunity to keep Italy at least partially disunited (say within a loose confederation plus custom union) has to come early: I would suggest 1830 (SteveP's The Talleyrand Plan is a good TL). I'm not sure it might work in 1848: theoretically it could, but I'm quite sceptic that the pope, the king of Naples and the grand-duke of Tuscany can really play ball to the end. Best outcome would be a federation under a nominal presidency of the pope, as the catholic liberals were proposing (but in any case I am pretty sure that the duchies would be toast in any case).
In 1859 the genie is out of the bottle for sure: the pope would keep Latium for sure, the kingdom of Two Sicilies might remain independent (Cavour was never completely happy with the Garibaldine venture) and Venice might remain Austrian as it did IOTL. All the rest of Italy would be annexed as per IOTL, and IMHO it would be named "kingdom of Italy" anyway.
It might be argued that by avoiding the entanglement in Southern Italy the new kingdom would be more omogeneous and prosperous: it might be true, or it might open another front for irredentism and a further militarization of Italy. Very hard to say.
If the POD is in 1860 (no expedition of the Mille, mind: if Garibaldi goes to Sicily and somehow gets to be mauled, there will be a major outcry all along Italy and the new Italy would be willy-nilly forced to fight the Bourbons), it is to be expected that everything up to that is as per OTL. Therefore insurrections in the duchies, Tuscany, Romagna, Marche and Umbria, which are all annexed after plebiscites. Nappy will go again for the Villafranca armistice, since the Italian situation is not evolving the way he wanted. The Papal States survive (limited to Latium only) with French support. It is also possible that Cavour - who ITTL is free from the entanglement in southern Italy) manages to keep Nice and Savoy (or at least the former), since Nappy has reneged on the terms of the alliance (both Lombardy and Venetia were to be given to Piedmont).I was thinking that it would be Piedmont-Sardinia, Papal States and the Two Sicilies as left over.
Perhaps we could see the Papal State acting as a buffer state between Piedmont-Sardinia and the Two Sicilies?
How about this for a POD: Garibaldi is killed by French troops in 1849.
I wonder if Italy could be united in a scenario like this or not by the *SOUTH*.
To screw the bad ideas some peoples have about the southerners, by example...
How about this for a POD: Garibaldi is killed by French troops in 1849.
Since we seem to be mostly talking about an 1859 PoD how about the Second Italian War of Independence not happening at all? IIRC I'm fairly sure I remember that whilst France allied with Sardinia they insisted in the treaty that the fighting had to be started by Austrian aggression as they didn't want to annoy the British or possibly drag Prussia in on Austria's side. So Sardinia called up the army and tried to provoke the Austrians by supporting revolutionaries in Lombardy-Venetia but for once they refused to rise to the bait. Eventually Russia and the UK suggested that the whole situation be sorted out with a Congress which Napoleon III grudgingly agreed to since he knew the French public weren't behind a war if Austria wasn't going to conveniently start it. The Austrians however took the agreed idea of a Congress as a sign of weakness and in a completely idiotic move sent a diplomatic note to Sardinia that they demobilise their army within three days or face war, giving them and Napoleon III exactly what they wanted.
So suppose Buol doesn't overreach himself and thinking the opposition is weak demand Sardinia demobilise? With no excuse to bring a major ally in Sardinia who were already thinking about demobilising as having the army standing about doing bugger all wasn't achieving anything does so. Cavour seeing his dream of a major military victory which he believed was the only way to start the unification off probably sinks back into a depression even if he manages to keep his position and possibly commits suicide. With Sardinia for the foreseeable future put off the idea of adventurism Garibaldi gets impatient and tries an Expedition of [Insert Number Here] but with no victory in the Austro-Sardinian War he doesn't get as many volunteers and backing as in OTL and when he attempts an expedition - it doesn't have to be to Sicily, he might try for Lombardy or the central Italian states hoping that Sardinia will be forced to back him - with fewer resources and possibly different local conditions it turns into a fiasco with him and a large number of the group killed and the rest driven off.
Sardinia's only hope at any advancement out of the whole sorry affair then becomes whatever can be achieved at the proposed Congress, and with one of their best diplomats in Cavour dead they're certainly not going to get all of Lombardy like they did with OTLs war. Hell, if the Austrians plays things right they may not have to give up much of anything at all. IIRC Napoleon III had at one point thrown around the idea of something similar to the German Confederation for Italy with the Pope as a powerless figurehead, might that end up as the compromise solution? Really though I don't know enough about that point of history to say what the different powers might of been willing to push or support and outcome would. Anyone got any ideas?