WI Italy neutral until invasion of Yugoslavia?

If italy stays neutral that long, why on Earth would they jump in later?
Now, if italy tells Germany 'we'll take care of Yugoslavia for you're, that wouldn't be Italy ceasing to be neutral, but her engaging in her own Balkan wars.

And, yeah, as others have said, any Italian contribution to Barbarossa would only be 'volunteer' units like the Spanish one.
 
If italy stays neutral that long, why on Earth would they jump in later?
Now, if italy tells Germany 'we'll take care of Yugoslavia for you're, that wouldn't be Italy ceasing to be neutral, but her engaging in her own Balkan wars.

And, yeah, as others have said, any Italian contribution to Barbarossa would only be 'volunteer' units like the Spanish one.

my thinking was Italy remained out due to surprise M-R Pact, concern over their own readiness, and a bit of trying to see what they could get out of the Allied side?

if an Axis Pact was signed after the fall of France that includes Japan, an invasion of USSR might not seem so daunting? (at the time, since they are not yet up to their neck fighting UK) but an easy grab of resources.

that is the positive motivation.

at that time Germany was still cooperating with Soviets who had interests in Yugoslavia and Bulgaria. Italy might feel they need to push and/or participate in an invasion East to protect and/or advance their own interests in the Balkans?

a negative motivation, if you will.
 

Deleted member 1487

my thinking was Italy remained out due to surprise M-R Pact, concern over their own readiness, and a bit of trying to see what they could get out of the Allied side?
I suppose we could see Bennie the Moose be even more cautious and forego even joining in on the Fall of France, sticking to the 1942 planned ready date...but I'd imagine then you'd see Hitler putting even more pressure on him to supply Germany with whatever it can if it still wants German coal and steel among other things.

if an Axis Pact was signed after the fall of France that includes Japan, an invasion of USSR might not seem so daunting? (at the time, since they are not yet up to their neck fighting UK) but an easy grab of resources.

that is the positive motivation.

at that time Germany was still cooperating with Soviets who had interests in Yugoslavia and Bulgaria. Italy might feel they need to push and/or participate in an invasion East to protect and/or advance their own interests in the Balkans?

a negative motivation, if you will.
The problem there is if Italy stays out, France may not surrender as per OTL, which introduces pretty major butterflies going forward.
Fighting the USSR outright would bring the UK and France in against Italy, as the USSR and Allies would be formally allied once Germany goes in. Plus as per OTL it is unlikely that the Italians would be informed of the invasion of the USSR and only show up months later.
 
... Fighting the USSR outright would bring the UK and France in against Italy, as the USSR and Allies would be formally allied once Germany goes in. Plus as per OTL it is unlikely that the Italians would be informed of the invasion of the USSR and only show up months later.

wonder how much of a "volunteer" air corps Italy could send East and remain neutral? their SM.82 cargo plane would have been a big help.
 

Deleted member 1487

wonder how much of a "volunteer" air corps Italy could send East and remain neutral? their SM.82 cargo plane would have been a big help.
Probably a fair big larger than even Spain, given that the Allies wouldn't want to fight Italy either unless they were pushed into it by Italy formally joining the war. I don't know if they'd send all that many SM 82s as cargo planes either, but who knows? Mussolini would at least need to consider that they might need to enter the war, so would have to hold back a fair bit of manpower and equipment...but I'd imagine that Black Shirts would be actual volunteers and large in number. IOTL there were some 340,000 men in the combat organization and they raised 5 divisions.
 
I suppose we could see Bennie the Moose be even more cautious and forego even joining in on the Fall of France, sticking to the 1942 planned ready date...but I'd imagine then you'd see Hitler putting even more pressure on him to supply Germany with whatever it can if it still wants German coal and steel among other things.


The problem there is if Italy stays out, France may not surrender as per OTL, which introduces pretty major butterflies going forward.
Fighting the USSR outright would bring the UK and France in against Italy, as the USSR and Allies would be formally allied once Germany goes in. Plus as per OTL it is unlikely that the Italians would be informed of the invasion of the USSR and only show up months later.
They weren't formally allied, the USSR stayed out of the war with Japan even though Japan was at war with their "allies", hence not an alliance. Definitely possible someone could war the USSR and have the allies not declare on them just as the USSR did with Japan
 

Deleted member 1487

They weren't formally allied, the USSR stayed out of the war with Japan even though Japan was at war with their "allies", hence not an alliance. Definitely possible someone could war the USSR and have the allies not declare on them just as the USSR did with Japan
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Declaration_by_United_Nations
Declaration by United Nations was the main treaty that formalized the Allies of World War II; the declaration was signed by 47 national governments between 1942 and 1945. On New Year's Day 1942, the Allied "Big Four" (the US, the UK, the USSR, and China) signed a short document which later came to be known as the United Nations Declaration and the next day the representatives of twenty-two other nations added their signatures.[1][2][3]

https://www.un.org/en/sections/hist...er/1942-declaration-united-nations/index.html
 

Deleted member 1487

I meant in the practical sense not the propaganda sense

A normal alliance it isn't possible to be at war with one member and not the others
Dude, it even says on the UN website it was made into a formal, treaty signed alliance! Just because it doesn't conform to your personal definition doesn't mean it wasn't one in the eyes of the actual participants!
 
Dude, it even says on the UN website it was made into a formal, treaty signed alliance! Just because it doesn't conform to your personal definition doesn't mean it wasn't one in the eyes of the actual participants!

Well then it's not relevant is it. The question we're talking about is whether or not a country would be at war with both members of the "alliance" and the answer is not necessarily.

If the Republic of China declared war on the Soviets you think the allies would too?

Also since they all agreed to follow the Atlantic charter then I'm sure you agree there was no cold War between the two allies.

(As far as I'm aware no part of the Atlantic charter or the statement obligates a nation to go to war against an aggressor ala Italy attacking USSR.)
 

Deleted member 1487

Well then it's not relevant is it. The question we're talking about is whether or not a country would be at war with both members of the "alliance" and the answer is not necessarily.

If the Republic of China declared war on the Soviets you think the allies would too?

Also since they all agreed to follow the Atlantic charter then I'm sure you agree there was no cold War between the two allies.

(As far as I'm aware no part of the Atlantic charter or the statement obligates a nation to go to war against an aggressor ala Italy attacking USSR.)
Every European country that declared war on the USSR (even Finland) was declared war on by Britain. The USSR was not obligated to declare war on Japan because they were barely hanging on in Europe and the Wallies wanted the USSR to focus on Germany and only when it was defeated turn on Japan (you know the whole Germany first policy the Allies had). There were specific circumstances that government policy and strategy. Italy joining in a 'parallel' war with the USSR would be intolerable to the Wallies, as it was when Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria did it. They didn't declare on the Wallies, but they were declared war upon by the Wallies for being allied to Germany and participating in the war.
 
Every European country that declared war on the USSR (even Finland) was declared war on by Britain. The USSR was not obligated to declare war on Japan because they were barely hanging on in Europe and the Wallies wanted the USSR to focus on Germany and only when it was defeated turn on Japan (you know the whole Germany first policy the Allies had). There were specific circumstances that government policy and strategy. Italy joining in a 'parallel' war with the USSR would be intolerable to the Wallies, as it was when Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria did it. They didn't declare on the Wallies, but they were declared war upon by the Wallies for being allied to Germany and participating in the war.

Probably it would be but not necessarily. If the allies would prefer to have open access in the med and deliver supplies to sevsatpol then perhaps they don't since Italy can't do anything to USSR.

If Finland had anyway of threatening Britain you'd see Britain avoiding war. As it was USA never declared war on Finland since most of the convoys were there ships and they didn't want the murmask route more at threat.

But yeah you've already changed your position from USSR and allies were allied so the US and all the allies will declare on Italy to only Britain would declare on Italy.

And from your ignoring I assume you recognise that no allies would declare war on the Republic of China
 
probably trying to thread the needle too much here? more plausible if Italy declared war per OTL, and simply did not move on Egypt or Greece but only Yugoslavia? (their original target)

Well, but declare war on whom? If their target is Yugoslavia only, then they may declare war only on Yugoslavia. Be co-belligerents in part of the war with Germany. It leaves on the British the onus of declaring on Italy because of their move, done while Yugoslavia is no British ally. Note Britain lagged behind in declaring on Finland, even though the latter was at war with the Soviet Union.

Actually, does Germany need to be involved in the Italian-Yugoslavian war? If they're wise, they might stay out. This would then be the equivalent of the Winter War; another war going on between two parties that aren't warring on either Germany or Britain.
 
If italy stays neutral that long, why on Earth would they jump in later?

Why did they annex Albania? Why attack Greece? It's Mussolini feeling that he, the original Fascist dictator, great conqueror of an empire, winner of the Spanish Civil War, is being upstaged by a latecomer, Hitler. That can't be put up with.
 
There would be no invasion of Yugoslavia without the Italian invasion of Greece. Hitler only wanted Yugoslavia to secure the German flank in the attack on Greece. Before that Germany had been satisfied with a (pro-German) neutral Yugoslavia.

The invasion was entirely separate from the Greek issue. They were invaded due to the joining the Axis under pressure and then the military revolting, overthrowing the regent, and dropping out of the Axis alliance. Hitler ordered the invasion then. The Greek invasion was planned months before that and was supposed to be entirely through Bulgaria, while the Yugoslav invasion then meant they could slip through their territory to flank the Metaxas line.
Yes, and that happened after Germany decided on an attack on Greece and was tightly connected with the invasion. You've actually more or less supported the post you replied to.
 
There would be no invasion of Yugoslavia without the Italian invasion of Greece. Hitler only wanted Yugoslavia to secure the German flank in the attack on Greece. Before that Germany had been satisfied with a (pro-German) neutral Yugoslavia.

that is opinion only, Italy had planned earlier invasion(s), true they were pressed by Hitler to scrap or delay the last variation but you are assuming Italy does not act unilaterally or Germany does not attempt to "buy them off" with Yugoslavia? (as they supported Japanese move into Indochina)
 
that is opinion only, Italy had planned earlier invasion(s), true they were pressed by Hitler to scrap or delay the last variation but you are assuming Italy does not act unilaterally or Germany does not attempt to "buy them off" with Yugoslavia? (as they supported Japanese move into Indochina)
Even if Italy attacks Greece, this would not be a concern to Germany if Italy is neutral. And it's very unlikely that the British would start a war with Italy over such an invasion, even if they formally had a guarantee to Greece.
 
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