WI Italy joins the Balkan League

Suppose that the Italo-Turkish War starts a year later, or the First Balkan War starts a year earlier. Maybe they each are 6 months different than OTL and meet in the middle.

With a shared enemy and almost entirely non-overlapping goals, it seems it would make perfect sense for Italy to team up with the Balkan League.

  • How does this affect Italy's relationship with Austria-Hungary?
  • What will Italy take other than Libya once they win? (maybe Asir/Western Yemen)
  • How will Ottoman lands in Europe be divided?
  • Will Greece pursue the Megali Idea? Either in the peace settlements or in a later war?
  • Effects on the Second Balkan War (if there is one)
  • Effects on the Great War (if there is one)
 

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It's also worth pointing out that Italian control of Asir / Hejaz / Western Yemen, as well as Eritrea, gives them great advantage in controlling the entrance to the Red Sea.
 
Italy enter the balkan war can create a cascade effect that can start WWI 3 years earlier; A-H cannot hallow the italians or the serbs control of Albania and i doubt that someone in Wien or Budapest will be happy to see Italy getting too cozy with her other regional rival and poaching in her neighbour (the Balkans), if A-H mobilize, Russia can be forced to do it to show support to Panslavism etc. etc.
 
Italy enter the balkan war can create a cascade effect that can start WWI 3 years earlier; A-H cannot hallow the italians or the serbs control of Albania and i doubt that someone in Wien or Budapest will be happy to see Italy getting too cozy with her other regional rival and poaching in her neighbour (the Balkans), if A-H mobilize, Russia can be forced to do it to show support to Panslavism etc. etc.
Or just sit there and do nothing. The Serbs wanted Albania for themselves and OTL were quite brazen and defiant about it. There's defninitley "unfortunate incidents" happening between Serbian and Italian troops in the region that will spiral out of control considering just how rabid their leadership at that time was.
 

Deleted member 94680

Italy joining the BL is almost a casus belli for Austria-Hungary. The Balkan ‘minnows’ fighting Turkey for it’s land in Europe is all fine and well. It weakens a traditional peer opponent for Vienna and distracts those pesky Slavs from lands under Austria’s control. Italy joining the gang is a bit more... suspicious.
 
Italy joining the BL is almost a casus belli for Austria-Hungary. The Balkan ‘minnows’ fighting Turkey for it’s land in Europe is all fine and well. It weakens a traditional peer opponent for Vienna and distracts those pesky Slavs from lands under Austria’s control. Italy joining the gang is a bit more... suspicious.
It also begs the question which other "decaying" multi-ethnic empire will be in their sights next...
 
OTOH, A-H wouldn't mind Italy getting bogged down with the Serbians over Albania. Popcorn eating would commence at Schönbrunn Palace, watching thise two tear each other apart over worthless rocks.
 

Deleted member 94680

It also begs the question which other "decaying" multi-ethnic empire will be in their sights next...

Exactly. I know the OP is “Italy joins the Balkans League”, but in the optics of the day it will be seen as the Balkan League joining Italy. Almost semantics, but a very important difference.

Why does Italy want all the nations bordering Austria-Hungary on their side? Vienna will ask itself. Why are they targeting the only other Great Power in the Balkans? To the almost paranoid decision makers in Vienna the conclusion will seem pretty obvious...

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OTOH, A-H wouldn't mind Italy getting bogged down with the Serbians over Albania. Popcorn eating would commence at Schönbrunn Palace, watching thise two tear each other apart over worthless rocks.
The Austrans were willing to start a world war over these rocks
 

BooNZ

Banned
The Balkan League was derived from the reconciliation and alliance between Bulgaria and Serbia, itself the outcome of a foreign policy adventure of Imperial Russia from around 1904 (conceived as a tool for use against either the Ottomans or A-H empires). I understand OTL Imperial Russia was far from thrilled with the admission of Greece into the League, since this essentially diluted Russian influence/control. Imperial Russia would become increasingly paranoid if Italy formally joined the Balkan League and it is far from certain Imperial Russia would back this 'super' League in all circumstances.

OTL Russia and France discreetly backed the Italian play against the Ottomans in Libya, but it is less certain those powers would support Italian objectives along with those of Serbia, Greece and Bulgaria simultaneously - since this would clearly threaten the collapse of the Ottoman Empire and put control of the straights in play. Neither France nor Britain nor Germany would be keen to join any conflict arising in the Balkans, so there is a reasonable chance it would remain localised.

Italy joining the BL is almost a casus belli for Austria-Hungary. The Balkan ‘minnows’ fighting Turkey for it’s land in Europe is all fine and well. It weakens a traditional peer opponent for Vienna and distracts those pesky Slavs from lands under Austria’s control. Italy joining the gang is a bit more... suspicious.
I could imagine Conrad getting his preemptive war against Italy, if Italy joins the Balkan minors in dogpiling the Ottomans. I have doubts Imperial Russia would be willing to go to war to save Italy from itself.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
It's also worth pointing out that Italian control of Asir / Hejaz / Western Yemen, as well as Eritrea, gives them great advantage in controlling the entrance to the Red Sea.
Which is precisely why Britain wouldn’t allow them to take the Hejaz. The Ottomans and Arabs will also defend the Islamic Holy Cities to their last dying breath.
 
Italian control over Albania means the Adriatic is an Italian lake. A hand on the throat of Austria.
You misunderstand.
A-H wanted Albainia as an autonomous Ottoman province, since that kept the area out of Greek, Serb or Italian control

They really didn't think an outright Independent Albania would survive a year, before being gobbled out by all their neighbors.

They didn't want a Serbian controlled(or annexed into 'Greater Serbia', as the Serbs desired)State, or an Italian controlled State.

a land that is being fought over by Italy and Serbia to the point where the rest of the Great Powers are sick of those two doing reprisals on each over over piles of dead civilian Albanians: a PR disaster for those two, that's an Austrian acceptable outcome, though not as good as Greek control.
 
Italy enter the balkan war can create a cascade effect that can start WWI 3 years earlier
The Austrans were willing to start a world war over these rocks
I totally agree that this could spiral into a Great War like in OTL. How do you guys think that would play out? Would the sides be the same (minus Bulgaria), or would some great powers stay out of it?
I would assume that the war would less stale-matey than in OTL, both because of the earlier technology and the industrial capacity of the players involved.
 
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