WI: Italy joins the allies in WWII?
- Thread starter Ellie
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A german invasion probably following the battle of France. Mussolini might have ordered an attack on Austria but possibly this would go as far as the attack on the french alps did.
The British might have moved troops to northern italy, but it is likely that the germans would advance rapidly and push them back to sicily, then Hitler would have replaced Mussolini.
So, maybe the southern theatre would never reach africa or the balkans?
The British might have moved troops to northern italy, but it is likely that the germans would advance rapidly and push them back to sicily, then Hitler would have replaced Mussolini.
So, maybe the southern theatre would never reach africa or the balkans?
Depends on when they join the allies. I don't see it happening in 1940. Not after France fell so quickly. So then the most likely time would be 1943 after the war is turning on nazi Germany. In this ATL they might be useful as by then reforms/equipment would have improved the military. Mussolini could inter the war way things were relatively easy and discredit the nazi brand of Fascism. He may even get some border changes as a reward. After the war Italy will be in a great position. It would be the lead nation among the remain fascist/conservative nations like Spain. It would still have control over Libya and the horn of Africa. There might be a Algeria analog in Ethiopia in the decades after. But Libya has is so close abd sparsely populated that I don't think the Italians will let go. Especiall once the oil money comes in. And on top of all this its competitors on the continent will be busy rebuilding. Italy could get the orders for the Korean war that Germany got.
IIRC if Italy had opposed the Anschluss then they could have caused real problems for Germany, at that stage their military which had rearmed earlier on was still pretty effective whilst the German rearmament/reforms hadn't really kicked in yet. Wouldn't that just be amusing, Benito Mussolini becoming the defender of democracy by helping plucky Austria stand up to the bullying Germany. 
This is really the best case scenario for Italy. About the only way to improve it would be for the Facist Grand Council to take action against Mussolini shortly after 1940. Unlikely I know, but it would help.
IIRC if Italy had opposed the Anschluss then they could have caused real problems for Germany, at that stage their military which had rearmed earlier on was still pretty effective whilst the German rearmament/reforms hadn't really kicked in yet. Wouldn't that just be amusing, Benito Mussolini becoming the defender of democracy by helping plucky Austria stand up to the bullying Germany.
It's not as linear as that. We've had a tread about that a few months back. The German Army could rely on a vast pool of paramilitary clubs that formed a sort of national guard or reserve army, had surprisingly large numbers of heavy weapons on clandestine storage and an export arms industry that could speed up productio for domestic needs easily. The Italian Air Force would win the Air War, but there is a very good chance that the Germans might secure a military victory, pushing the Italians back to their borders (or more) and establish a much more positive basis for both the expansion of the german military forces and the relationship btw them and Nazi leadership.
In such a conflict, Italy, by then an established international vilian, would be seen as the agressor and the Nazis, by then still an unkown factor yet to have super vilian status, would gain legitimacy.
Economically isolated Italy would be in trouble if they objected to the Anschluss. Who to trade with? The Soviets?...We also know what happens later so, who is to say that Nazigermany doesnt make another attempt a few years later and then what?
On the other hand it is possible for Mussolini did not like the Anschluss.
Would opposing the Anschluss have brought Italy closer to the allies if they had defeated Germany?
And would Hitler stay in charge in face of such an early defeat?
More next week on Soap..
On the other hand it is possible for Mussolini did not like the Anschluss.
Would opposing the Anschluss have brought Italy closer to the allies if they had defeated Germany?
And would Hitler stay in charge in face of such an early defeat?
More next week on Soap..
The July Putsch goes more poorly for the Nazis than OTL. A rogue detachment of Austrian Nazis storms Brenner Pass and are slaughtered to a man by Italian forces there. This poisons German-Italian relations(which would have an impact on the Spanish Civil War) and leads the British and French to not levy sanctions against Italy during the war with Eithiopia.
Italy is formally neutral(either they don't help Austria in '38 or a Nazi invasion of Austria happens later) until 1943, when they join the Allies.
Neither of Mussolini's parents lived past 56 and Mussolini was 61 when he was executed, I don't see him living more than 10 years after the war ends. The rest of the Allies are probably able to put enough pressure(probably reforms in exchange for Dalmatia) on Mussolini to get his shit together in his later days and Italy has an only-slightly messy transition to democracy(but not republicanism) when he dies sometime in the early 1950s.
Italy is formally neutral(either they don't help Austria in '38 or a Nazi invasion of Austria happens later) until 1943, when they join the Allies.
Neither of Mussolini's parents lived past 56 and Mussolini was 61 when he was executed, I don't see him living more than 10 years after the war ends. The rest of the Allies are probably able to put enough pressure(probably reforms in exchange for Dalmatia) on Mussolini to get his shit together in his later days and Italy has an only-slightly messy transition to democracy(but not republicanism) when he dies sometime in the early 1950s.
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Well IRC that was just your version.
The Anshluss was expressely prohibithed by the Treaty of Versailles and both France and UK will really not like that move by Germany, whatever the Austrian people agree with that, not counting that the Czech will be a lot worried, so no Benny will not be seen as the villain...on the contrary (the Anglo-French will be happy that someone else does their dirty work) and it will not be economically isolated, propaganda apart the sanctions were a joke.
Regarding the military aspect, well unfortunely for the Germans one of the few good part of the italian armed forces were the alpins (plus what the italian army was trained was precisely a war in that zone), and frankly panzers and other heavy equipment is more than an hidrance in that terrain
IIRC we were talking about an earlier conflict at the time, not in 1938. In 1938 the Wallies still regarded Hitler as something to be contained rather than destroyed. A German Italian war in 1938 will lead to a quick, decisive German win. By that time the German army was still an infantry force with a forming mechanised core, but its force levels and general quality would turn any Italian offensive action into Austria in a major league disaster.
Were I was a bit isolated in the original discussion was in thinking the germans could win as early as 1935. (Isolated and right, btw)
Sorry first in 1935 the German are not ready to fight anyone, you are entitled with your opinion naturally, still they don't have any air force or mechanizated forces, plus the italian army unlike the German are more equipped and trained for fighting in a terrain like Austria.
In 1938, they are more ready sure...still the Poland campaing was possible only with the plundering of Austrian and Czech resources and here well they haven't.
Sure Hitler need to be contained...aka Yeah Italy will do our work for us, as taking Austria will not be a think that has pleased anyone, just UK and France were not ready for a war for it as they were not ready for a war for preserving Czecoslovakia.
The Italian air forces at least exist and has enough experience, plus a lot of bomber and the italian tankettes ironically work better in the mountain than whatever the German have as they were built for this.
Well, it should be noted that Italy HAD opposed Anschluss until 1937, when Mussolini changed his mind and determined that Germany was a better "ally" than France and Britain. That's a long story short, of course.
Ethiopia did a great deal in straining Italian relations with the West, but it was not unsormontable. Of course, Mussolini hadn been making unacceptable demands anyway from the PoV of London and Paris, even before Ethiopia, but there was a faction within the government that favored cooperation with the West against Germany regardless.
Austria was a sort of a ally and a very comfortable buffer to have there.
Assuming Italy choses to go to war over Anschluss, France and Britain would clearly lean toward Rome, for the simple reason that they prefer the status quo and Italian cause in this case would be preserving status quo.
War in the Alps would be very nasty for both sides, but Italy is better prepared for it, offsetting other German advantages such as the larger industrial base.
It could turn into bloody stalemate for quite a while, although the Germans are likely to be able to secure most of Austria.
Actually, without Italian support, the whole buildup to WWII is impossible to Germany. Anschluss was only possible with Italian acquiescence, Munich and Prague with Italian alliance.
However, let's say that Mussolini had been a German ally in 1937-39, then he drifts away from Germany after September 1939 and realizes that alliance with Germany is a losing proposition (something Ciano had been arguing all along). Italy waits. France might surrender a bit later and make life a little more difficult for the Germans, which in turn might effect the fate of the Free French. Maybe the surrender is seen as betrayal, rather than necessity, by more people. So maybe de Gaulle gets Dakar and more other colonies side with the Free French, which is good for them esp. in terms of post-war standing.
The French fleet might be interned in neutral Italy, not sunk.
Then, BoB would still happen and would probably be an even better showing for the RAF.
With no Med theatre, the war comes to a renewed "phony war" for some months. Mussolini has various options, but the scenario assumes he's more pro-British, so he probably supports a negotiated sort-of-white peace. However, he eyes French holdings greedily and tries to discuss with both Vichy and Free France to get something that looks nice on the map. Or he may profit of the mess to invade Jugoslavia with Romanian (?), Hungarian and/or Bulgarian support.
That causes a mess in Central Europe that Germany cannot ignore.
Not sure what happens next, Romania has major grudges with ALL her neighbors at this point, so it's hard to tell how the alliances in the Balkans would look like, but let's assume it's Italy vs. Germany (and maybe Vichy while they're at it) and Romania vs. Hungary and Bulgaria in spring 1941.
Barbarossa is delayed, but now Britain has nothing better to do than support Italy (though not enthusiastically). And maybe Portugal might join the Allies as well in this scenario (Spain is more unlikely).
The Reich is toast (especially because the Soviets might see a good chance to attack in 1942).
This is an almost best-case scenario for Allied Italy in WWII.
Ethiopia did a great deal in straining Italian relations with the West, but it was not unsormontable. Of course, Mussolini hadn been making unacceptable demands anyway from the PoV of London and Paris, even before Ethiopia, but there was a faction within the government that favored cooperation with the West against Germany regardless.
Austria was a sort of a ally and a very comfortable buffer to have there.
Assuming Italy choses to go to war over Anschluss, France and Britain would clearly lean toward Rome, for the simple reason that they prefer the status quo and Italian cause in this case would be preserving status quo.
War in the Alps would be very nasty for both sides, but Italy is better prepared for it, offsetting other German advantages such as the larger industrial base.
It could turn into bloody stalemate for quite a while, although the Germans are likely to be able to secure most of Austria.
Actually, without Italian support, the whole buildup to WWII is impossible to Germany. Anschluss was only possible with Italian acquiescence, Munich and Prague with Italian alliance.
However, let's say that Mussolini had been a German ally in 1937-39, then he drifts away from Germany after September 1939 and realizes that alliance with Germany is a losing proposition (something Ciano had been arguing all along). Italy waits. France might surrender a bit later and make life a little more difficult for the Germans, which in turn might effect the fate of the Free French. Maybe the surrender is seen as betrayal, rather than necessity, by more people. So maybe de Gaulle gets Dakar and more other colonies side with the Free French, which is good for them esp. in terms of post-war standing.
The French fleet might be interned in neutral Italy, not sunk.
Then, BoB would still happen and would probably be an even better showing for the RAF.
With no Med theatre, the war comes to a renewed "phony war" for some months. Mussolini has various options, but the scenario assumes he's more pro-British, so he probably supports a negotiated sort-of-white peace. However, he eyes French holdings greedily and tries to discuss with both Vichy and Free France to get something that looks nice on the map. Or he may profit of the mess to invade Jugoslavia with Romanian (?), Hungarian and/or Bulgarian support.
That causes a mess in Central Europe that Germany cannot ignore.
Not sure what happens next, Romania has major grudges with ALL her neighbors at this point, so it's hard to tell how the alliances in the Balkans would look like, but let's assume it's Italy vs. Germany (and maybe Vichy while they're at it) and Romania vs. Hungary and Bulgaria in spring 1941.
Barbarossa is delayed, but now Britain has nothing better to do than support Italy (though not enthusiastically). And maybe Portugal might join the Allies as well in this scenario (Spain is more unlikely).
The Reich is toast (especially because the Soviets might see a good chance to attack in 1942).
This is an almost best-case scenario for Allied Italy in WWII.
Austria and Czecolovakia are not the same type of political problem. Hitler could present (I'm not going to discuss wether credibly or not, that can being quite full of nasty worms) the Austrian option has being suported by the majority of Austrians and being a merge, not a take over.
If Italy moves ofensively to prevent that from happening, Hitler can claim to be the victim of fascist agression abroad, and invoke for internal propaganda the very powerfull ghost of Bismarck.
In such a war, all Germany needs to do to win is push the Italians out of Austria. A few Alpine units will not prevent that. In 1938 the Italian army was still recovering from expensive African adventures, lacked reserves of fuel, ammo, etc.
The CV33 tanketes had proved useless in Spain, particulary in the battles in the Ebro, and the italian Army, has a whole, was to prove later to be utterly unprepared for offensive actions.
By 1938 the Italian air force would field a capable,but not very numerous , bomber force, with a few hundred operational BR20 and SM79, that would soon run out of fuel in major war unless someone sold them some. Their fighter arm was still flying the venerable CR32 with a small number of G50 and C200 entering service. The Cr32 outclassed the He51, but by then the LW was flying Bf109D (and a few He112B) and about to introduce the Bf109E. The italians could probably win the initial phase of the air war, but not enough to prevent a complete and decisive rout of their offensive plans.
Once the Italias had been beaten back, they coud defend their borders, but would almost certanly been forced into a negociated peace.
Hitler would emerge from that war in a better position than OTL, and assuming that Munich would still happen, the possibility of a "super Munich" that would also solve the polish question has to be considered.
That sets the table for a ATL WW2 starting in 1941 or 1942...
In 1935, we must see past the deliberate deception that was the Weimar defence policy to see just how ready the german armed forces were.
I'm not talking about political but about resources aka what the Nazi plundered for their crash rearmament program without that they are in a worse position.
Internal propaganda can say whatever the corporal want, at the world stage Benny can rightfully claim to preserve international law as that move is explicity prohibited by Versailles and even OTL UK and France had get along with the Anshluss because that time Benny was ok with it and they don't want a war about it.
This time they had someone who will do their dirty work for them and the few unit in question are trained for that difficult terrain, basically their value is much more than the numbers tell.
Unfortunely for the German, this kind of war, unlike OTL WWII, is exactely what the italian army was trained to fight and the tankettes are been built for that mountain, basically the CV33 at least can manouver, the panzers? I doubt so.
Why anybody will not sell them fuel? Even the League sanctions not inclued oil and as i said the Wallies will be very happy of the situation
If and if the italians are beaten back, the wechmatch will be not in any position to do anything regarding Czech as it will need two things to recovers like Time and money, and the second will be the real problem, even OTL the German economy run on borrowed time and old fashioned plundering and in this case Austria is giving them much less than OTL due to the war.
I don't see how Hitler position is better than OTL? A costly war, prey of war less than expected, economy in a worse position, the Entente had more time to prepare and now he must watch the border with Austria and Benny will now back in the fold.
Humm let me see, they don't have an air force, don't have much heavy equipment, no tank or tankettes and the italian equipment of the time was on par with the rest of the world...sure the werchmatch need just to show herself nake and weaponless to scare the poor italian and make them run for their life
You would have been much apreciated (by the germans) as an arms control inspector in the late 20s, early 30s...
Versailles was dead in 1938. The Anschluss was presented by the Germans as the willing, voluntary union of two countries, which is why they could present an Italian intervention as an invasion. Having defeated Italy, Germany would enter the next crisis in a much stronger political position, both internally and externally.
The best chance of success is a european political compromise that delays WW2. A easy victory against Italy in 1938, or a more difficult one in 1935 (within the context of an Italian invasion of Austria following a change in Austrian politics, not a premature anschluss) would be one of the possible POD for that scenario.
You would have been much apreciated (by the germans) as an arms control inspector in the late 20s, early 30s...
And you will be much appreciated by the rest of Europe as a German strategist...fair enough
For the nth time how Hitler present the Anschluss matters less than zero, both UK and France (plus the other nations of the little entente) don't want it, just feel that is not worth a war, expecially with Benny support the corporal.
With Italy fitghting Germany they basically can outsource the problem.
AdA, having fighiting Italy, Germany don't have the capacity to enter any crisis, it's so hard to figure? The nazi economy was...precarious, basically running in plundering and Austria was one of the first conquest, make it more costly and less worthy due to the war damage (not counting the damage in Germany) and their entire timetable go to hell.
They will not in any shape to fight any war for sometime, and more time pass...more the German economy risk a collapse.
The problem in this scenario is that in 1938 the victory will be far from easy...if ever happen for Germany and in 1935 will be an humiliating defeat as they are not ready for any adventures (even the reoccupation of Rhineland was a gigantic Bluff), their armed forces are for now an hollow shell, they had needed some years of preparation basically plundering two nations and part of their own population and almost crippling their economy to do to what achievied in OTL, now is too soon.
The Reichswehr was nominally a ten division 100 000 force. Far from naked, they had complete divisional weaponry, including artillery. They also had an underground network of hidden heavy weapons, used for trainning, that surfaced in the late 30 and would allow to form corps artillery. they were backed by an extensive network of para military organizations, the most famous of which was the Steel helmet league, that could easily provide 500 000 to 1 000 000 trained men to the ranks, equiped from a large stock of WW1 era weapons. And that was in 1930. In 1935 this had been expanded considerably.
Compare this force with the Greek army that gave a pretty intense beating to the Italians in precisely the type of mountainous ground you regard as favourable for them, and you get an idea of the fate that would have expected an earlier, less prepared Italian invasion force.
Germany was not ready for a general war, nor expected it, in 1938 or 1939. They were working on the assumption that they would have to deal with a major war in 1942. Rather than stick to OTL improvisation as a frame for ATL germanexpansion, you should focus on german plans for expansion, that were derailed by the premature comitments of a general war in 1939.
Of course this also allows other powers to expand, and IM(H)O, French programs would pose a great danger to German ambitions, the French army also having had its major modernization aborted by a war that came too soon...