WI Italy joined the allies 1943/1944

[Deleted member 1487]

I'd argue the two weeks could be decisive, given that 32nd Rifle only managed to beat the 2nd SS Panzer Division to Borodino by a single day; this allowed them to fix up defenses enough to delay the Germans, preventing them from using the all weather road there to directly advance upon Moscow at the same time Stalin was contemplating an abandonment of the city with no real troops in the city. Likewise, there is some debate about the issue of the 12th Army and Army Group South:

Operation Barbarossa 1941: Army Group South

Arguably if they invade two weeks earlier the 32nd would start it's journey 2 weeks earlier as well. The bigger factor is the weather in October, earlier invasion means they have extra days without the rains. Of course they'd likely not have 2 weeks, because it is unlikely they predict the weather so accurately that they'd be able to jump off on the 1st good day of good weather. They'd probably only get a week early just to confirm that the weather had cleared enough and to get fully ready for the invasion.

The cancellation of the 12th Army's invasion plans had more to do with the feeling the operation would be a failure rather than the Balkans campaign being the primary factor in diverting the army to another direction:

https://history.army.mil/html/books/104/104-21/cmhPub_104-21.pdf

On 18 March Hitler decided that Sixth Army was to carry out the main thrust of Army Group South. The plan for a Twelfth Army advance from Moldavia toward the northeast was abandoned. The German and Romanian units assembling along the Pruth were to tie down the opposing forces and pursue them only in the event that they should withdraw. This change in plan had to be made because Hitler contended that the Dnestr was a formidable obstacle that could not be surmounted by a frontal attack without considerable delay

This was before the plan to use 12th army in the Balkans.

The Yugoslav coup d'etat on 26 March induced Hitler to expand the operations in the Balkans by attacking Yugoslavia in addition to Greece. The greater scope of the campaign in the Balkans necessitated that an army headquarters assume control of the occupied territories after the end of hostilities. Twelfth Army, which was in charge of the operations against Greece, was selected for this role, and Eleventh Army was designated as substitute headquarters for the forces assembled in Moldavia. On 30 March 1941 the army group and army commanders reported to Hitler. During this conference the mission of Eleventh Army was discussed, and Hitler ordered the army forces divided into three separate groups, capable of backing up the Romanian divisions in case of need. Since Eleventh Army had thus been given a defensive mission, the motorized forces originally earmarked for that area were transferred to First Panzer Group. The encirclement of the Russian forces in the western Ukraine was to be effected by a single envelopment from the north, during which the armored forces were to thrust to the Dnepr at and south of Kiev, bear southeastward, and follow the bend of the river to its mouth, thus preventing the Russian forces in the western Ukraine from withdrawing across the river.

 

[thaddeus]

What if Italy stayed neutral still 1943/1944 and then joined the allies in war against Germany ,how would this change ww2?

without Italy to contend with would the UK continue to probe away at the Vichy regime? and without Italian interests to consider, would Germany try to conclude a deal with France? (just IMO yes to both)

do wonder whether the Balkans remain quiet, they might feel the need to enlist Hungary and Bulgaria, safeguard the oil of Romania (all of which might cover for troop movements to the East?)

 

[Deleted member 1487]

The Yugoslav coup would still necessitate some sort of delay.

Not really given that it was over in less than two weeks and wrapped up by April 18th.

Invasion of Yugoslavia - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

without Italy to contend with would the UK continue to probe away at the Vichy regime? and without Italian interests to consider, would Germany try to conclude a deal with France? (just IMO yes to both)

do wonder whether the Balkans remain quiet, they might feel the need to enlist Hungary and Bulgaria, safeguard the oil of Romania (all of which might cover for troop movements to the East?)

There is the issue of whether France would have surrendered without Italian entry into the war.

 

[Falecius]

My bad, I read it wrong. I thought that they switched sides as Axis power to the WAllies in 1943-1944.

Which... Italy did.
What then passed for the Italian legitimate government declared war on Germany on October 13, 1943.

 

[History Learner]

Arguably if they invade two weeks earlier the 32nd would start it's journey 2 weeks earlier as well. The bigger factor is the weather in October, earlier invasion means they have extra days without the rains. Of course they'd likely not have 2 weeks, because it is unlikely they predict the weather so accurately that they'd be able to jump off on the 1st good day of good weather. They'd probably only get a week early just to confirm that the weather had cleared enough and to get fully ready for the invasion.

32nd was one of the few actual Siberian divisions, so I doubt it could be transferred faster. As it was, too, assuming a linear course for Typhoon but just moved up by a week, Soviet force generation was extremely weak in September and fieldworks were rather lacking...

The cancellation of the 12th Army's invasion plans had more to do with the feeling the operation would be a failure rather than the Balkans campaign being the primary factor in diverting the army to another direction:

https://history.army.mil/html/books/104/104-21/cmhPub_104-21.pdf

This was before the plan to use 12th army in the Balkans.

I can't help but think the retention of motorized forces and the adoption of a double envelopment would not have been the better course, which is Forcyk's main point; as he notes, Hitler had changed his mind already but regardless 11th Army wasn't ready to go by June 21st. Had 12th stayed in position, this likely wouldn't have been the case.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

Which... Italy did.
What then passed for the Italian legitimate government declared war on Germany on October 13, 1943.

I know that. I just read OP wrong.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

32nd was one of the few actual Siberian divisions, so I doubt it could be transferred faster. As it was, too, assuming a linear course for Typhoon but just moved up by a week, Soviet force generation was extremely weak in September and fieldworks were rather lacking...

Not faster than IOTL, same time line, but they transfer earlier because the invasion happens earlier ITTL.
Soviet reactions aren't going to be at the same time as IOTL, they will be moved up to.

I can't help but think the retention of motorized forces and the adoption of a double envelopment would not have been the better course, which is Forcyk's main point; as he notes, Hitler had changed his mind already but regardless 11th Army wasn't ready to go by June 21st. Had 12th stayed in position, this likely wouldn't have been the case.

The 11th Army was in part not ready because the Romanians weren't either, they weren't going to attack without them.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

Italy making the only winning move takes a lot of pressure off of the British Commonwealth

No Verdun in the Med for one thing with the med still largely open for business

For another all those resources used in the Med and North/East Africa and used up can be used elsewhere

For a start do the Japanese 'even' with a less distracted British?

The Singapore campaign was a close run thing verses 3rd tier troops - if the entire 2nd AIF with Tank support and the 500 aircraft planners had said was necessary is in Malaya then the Japanese Army probably gets its head kicked in had it tried to invade.

Without Pearl Harbor there is no declaration of war by Germany on the USA - but it was only going to be a matter of time before the USA jumped in

In Dec 1941 the USN was as at war with Germany as it was possible to get without actually being at war.

 

[thaddeus]

without Italy to contend with would the UK continue to probe away at the Vichy regime? and without Italian interests to consider, would Germany try to conclude a deal with France? (just IMO yes to both)

do wonder whether the Balkans remain quiet, they might feel the need to enlist Hungary and Bulgaria, safeguard the oil of Romania (all of which might cover for troop movements to the East?)

There is the issue of whether France would have surrendered without Italian entry into the war.

there is that, although my assumption is that Italy is still broadly supportive of Germany? (along with Spain) and Vichy regime (Petain's regime) might want to preclude them becoming involved?

 

[History Learner]

Not faster than IOTL, same time line, but they transfer earlier because the invasion happens earlier ITTL.
Soviet reactions aren't going to be at the same time as IOTL, they will be moved up to.

The 32nd, as one of the few actual Siberian Divisions, was dependent upon Sorge's intel; I don't see anyway to move that up without him getting wreckless and busted sooner.

The 11th Army was in part not ready because the Romanians weren't either, they weren't going to attack without them.

Without equipment losses for the Balkans on the part of the Germans, that might not be an issue, especially given the changed mission profile.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

The 32nd, as one of the few actual Siberian Divisions, was dependent upon Sorge's intel; I don't see anyway to move that up without him getting wreckless and busted sooner.

I haven't seen evidence that was true.
But assuming it was Sorge gave his intel in August, the 32nd didn't transfer until September:

Richard Sorge - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

On 25 August 1941, Sorge reported to Moscow: "Invest [Ozaki] was able to learn from circles closest to [Japanese Prime Minister] Konoye...that the High Command...discussed whether they should go to war with the USSR. They decided not to launch the war within this year, repeat, not to launch the war this year."[12] On 6 September 1941, an Imperial Conference decided against war with the Soviet Union, and ordered that Japan start preparations for a possible war with the United States and the British Empire, which Ozaki reported to Sorge.[12]

32-я стрелковая дивизия (1-го формирования) — Википедия

ru.wikipedia.org

09/11/1941 sent to the Leningrad Front , where for a short time near Volkhov it was a part of the newly formed 4th Army (2nd formation) . In connection with the critical military situation in the Mozhaisk area, the division decided to transfer to the Moscow Military District .

Since 10/05/1941, units of the division from the Andreevo and Volkhovstroy Oktyabrskaya railroad stations are being reduced for the defense of the Mozhaisk fortified area of the Moscow defense zone , where they are part of the newly created 5th Army (2nd formation) of the Western Front.

10/09/1941, the first echelons with units of 32 SD began to arrive at Mozhaisk station , which, after unloading without delay, traveled on foot to the defensive lines . The division has now become the main force of the 5th Army.

Without equipment losses for the Balkans on the part of the Germans, that might not be an issue, especially given the changed mission profile.

Look up Operation Munich, it was highly dependent on the Romanians.

 

[History Learner]

I haven't seen evidence that was true.
But assuming it was Sorge gave his intel in August, the 32nd didn't transfer until September:

Richard Sorge - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

32-я стрелковая дивизия (1-го формирования) — Википедия

ru.wikipedia.org

David M. Glantz (2017) The Impact of Intelligence Provided to the Soviet Union by Richard Zorge on Soviet Force Deployments from the Far East to the West in 1941 and 1942, The Journal of Slavic Military Studies:

The net result of Zorge’s messages, which were no doubt supplemented by information from many other sources, was to comfort Stalin in his decision to hold onto the Soviet capital city firmly. Therefore, while transfers of forces from the Far East to the West were minimal in June and July 1941, they increased slightly in August and September only to expand dramatically in the wake of the initial German successes in Operation Typhoon in early October. For example, after dispatching two tank and one motorized divisions from the Far East to the West during June and July and four rifle divisions to do the same during August and September, Stalin’s Stavka [Supreme High Command) ordered six rifle, one motorized rifle, and three tank divisions to make the long trek in October, followed by one more rifle division in November (see Table 1). In addition to these force transfers from the Trans-Baikal and Far East Fronts (the former remained a military district until 15 September), on 25 October 1941, the Soviet State Defense Committee (GKO) ordered the Soviet Pacific Fleet to provide sufficient personnel to form 12 naval rifle [marine] brigades in the Ural, Volga, and Siberian Military Districts for future assignment to the Stavka’s Reserve (RVGK) (see Table 1).18

Look up Operation Munich, it was highly dependent on the Romanians.

Will do so.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

without Italy to contend with would the UK continue to probe away at the Vichy regime? and without Italian interests to consider, would Germany try to conclude a deal with France? (just IMO yes to both)

Would Hitler offer Vichy a neutral Italy’s territory? What could they offer that would tilt Vichy’s hand?

How would Britain ‘probe’ at Vichy?

 

[Deleted member 1487]

David M. Glantz (2017) The Impact of Intelligence Provided to the Soviet Union by Richard Zorge on Soviet Force Deployments from the Far East to the West in 1941 and 1942, The Journal of Slavic Military Studies:

Where does that support that it was Sorge's intel specifically?

The ‘Siberian’ Divisions and the Battle for Moscow in 1941-42 | Operation Barbarrosa

 

[thaddeus]

Would Hitler offer Vichy a neutral Italy’s territory? What could they offer that would tilt Vichy’s hand?

How would Britain ‘probe’ at Vichy?

it would help if they didn't offer Indochina to Japan, without Italy there is no question of handing over French colonies across N.Africa either?

meant the UK might return to Dakar, Madagascar, continue to attempt to turn the colonies to Free French (if they did not have to battle Italy)

 

[Grey Wolf]

The Yugoslav coup would still necessitate some sort of delay.

If Italy is neutral I don't see all these things happening

That's part of the problem with a "what if" question that then leaves the answers up to the readers - we have no blow-by-blow alternate history that shows what this neutral Italy is doing, what effect its neutrality has on the Tripartite Pact, and so on

 

[Deleted member 94680]

it would help if they didn't offer Indochina to Japan, without Italy there is no question of handing over French colonies across N.Africa either?

Help as in make Vichy keener on joining the Axis as a belligerent? How do you mean “without Italy there is no question of handing over French colonies“?

meant the UK might return to Dakar, Madagascar, continue to attempt to turn the colonies to Free French (if they did not have to battle Italy)

Do you see it as more an intelligence war rather than open conflict? Kind of similar to what the British did in Spain?

 

[thaddeus]

Help as in make Vichy keener on joining the Axis as a belligerent? How do you mean “without Italy there is no question of handing over French colonies“?

just IMO, do not think they would ever join willingly in tandem with Nazis, but simply fight the RN as they did at Dakar. part of French fleet was headed to French Central Africa as power play, maybe they would try to reassert their authority there?

meant when the Nazis were discussing situation with Spain and Italy, Vichy had to know they were on the menu. Tunisia would not be handed over to a neutral Italy?

 

[rush4you]

WI with Italy not joining the Axis, Japan does not take French Indochina, preventing US sanctions, and then hit the USSR opening a second front alongside the full might of the German army? (taking defensive positions in China if they have to)

 

[David T]

When I first saw the subject, I thought it would be something quite different--not "Italy never fights the Allies" but the Italy of OTL (Badoglio's) being recognized not only as a co-belligerent but as a formal ally. There was some pressure for this by Italian-Americans, and Congressman Vito Marcantonio introduced a resolution to this effect. But this would have been awkward given that there was not yet a peace treaty (just an armistice agreement) between the US and Italy. And it could also have caused problems with the UK, France, Yugoslavia, and Greece, all of which had suffered more directly than the US from Mussolini's entering the war, and the last three of which had territorial claims against Italy...