WI Italy in Allies in World War 2

Lets say that Mussolini, jealous of Germany's rise to power, sides with the Western Allies at the outbreak of World War 2 (Sometime in 1939-1940). What would happen.
 

mowque

Banned
Lets say that Mussolini, jealous of Germany's rise to power, sides with the Western Allies at the outbreak of World War 2 (Sometime in 1939-1940). What would happen.

Going to have to be a little more exact with the POD here.
 
Italy would be an albatross around the neck of whoever's side its on. It's industrial capacity was too small to support a long term great power conflict. It suffered from shortages of critical industrial materials. The state was broke from a premature military buildup. However unlike Germany's bankrupting rearmament, Italy enlarged its army, navy, and air force with technology that was already on the cusp obsolescence. Not to mention, the less than stellar performance of Italian generals throughout the second world war.
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
Italy would be an albatross around the neck of whoever's side its on. It's industrial capacity was too small to support a long term great power conflict. It suffered from shortages of critical industrial materials. The state was broke from a premature military buildup. However unlike Germany's bankrupting rearmament, Italy enlarged its army, navy, and air force with technology that was already on the cusp obsolescence. Not to mention, the less than stellar performance of Italian generals throughout the second world war.


The Italian industry won't suffer from materials as there would be no blockade.
 
Not really probable, since by 1939 Mussolini was firmly entrenched on the Germany's side.

Anyway, let's suppose that Mussolini, enraged by the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, harshly condemned as a "betrayl of the fascist ideals", makes a U turn and side Italy along the allies.
This opens some interesting scenarios. Germany could be in difficult situation, since she would have another front to defend and the italians could try to advance in September-October 1939 to occupy some position. In 1940, Hitler would probably proceed to the attack on France, while staying on the defensive on the italian border.
Now we have two possibilities: France falls as OTL, or the german need to man the italian border gives to the french the possibility to resist. I find more probable the first one, but the second is far to be unrealistic.
If France falls, the fight would move to the Alps. The mountains favours the italians, since they had fortified the border, had a huge experience in this kind of warfare and the impervious landscape nullify two of the main german advantages: tanks and airplanes.
At this point the war could become a rehearsal of WW1, only with the italians in a really more favourable position. The british would send all the troops available and few french division could try to seek shelter in Italy, rather than capitulate. Even the french mediterrean fleet could decide to defect (OTL, they scuttled the ships, IIRC). On a side note, probably there would be no Battle for Britain, so the british would have an easier time to reorganize. Greece, also, would be untouched by war.
The whole scenario now would play on the allies resistance on the Alps. If they manage to halt the german advance until the US enter war (there's no reason to think the pacific theatre different as OTL) and maybe Russia too, Hitler is defeated in 1944. If the germans breaks in, they could have an hard time anyway: as Kesserling showed, a determined defender can make life really difficult for his enemy in Italy. On the political side, the king could be tempted to betray the country as he did OTL, but I consider this possibility less than probable, since the royal court could alway relocate in Sicily or the colonies, under the allied fleet protection (so no back on the wall sindrome). Mussolini, on the other side, has no other alternative than fighting till victory, in this scenario. A defeat would mean death for him.
 
Lets say that Mussolini, jealous of Germany's rise to power, sides with the Western Allies at the outbreak of World War 2 (Sometime in 1939-1940). What would happen.
Might need a prewar POD to do this. On the other hand, Mussolini was rather opposed to Hitler early on, especially over Austria. However, the old Entente fell apart, and Mussolini, out of feelings of betrayal and colonial ambitions, started backing Hitler. Maybe a POD involving a more cohesive Stresa Front could keep Italy firmly opposed to Hitler.
 
Well. Go with something like:
Germany attempts to Annex Austria
Austria asks Mussolini for Help.
Italy gets involved.
Italy's armed forces race into Austria, starting a war between Germany and Italy that the allies would rather stay out of.

This is a grueling three year ordeal, as Italy's alpine forces are its best military soldiers. Germany eventually reaches the Po River in Italy, forcing Italy to sue for harsh terms--this is stuff like Italy losing Venice to Germany, as well as all of Austria.

Now you'd have a furious, revanchist Italy but one that's discredited its own Fascist base--so it might take on an Imperialist focus. This Italy promptly allies with France, as the two have a mutual enemy--Germany.

The showdown of Nazi Germany and the world will be delayed, but Italy will be on the allied side of the column.
 
Well. Go with something like:
Germany attempts to Annex Austria
Austria asks Mussolini for Help.
Italy gets involved.
Italy's armed forces race into Austria, starting a war between Germany and Italy that the allies would rather stay out of.

This is a grueling three year ordeal, as Italy's alpine forces are its best military soldiers. Germany eventually reaches the Po River in Italy, forcing Italy to sue for harsh terms--this is stuff like Italy losing Venice to Germany, as well as all of Austria.

Now you'd have a furious, revanchist Italy but one that's discredited its own Fascist base--so it might take on an Imperialist focus. This Italy promptly allies with France, as the two have a mutual enemy--Germany.

The showdown of Nazi Germany and the world will be delayed, but Italy will be on the allied side of the column.

I had a Hearts of Iron 2 game that went roughly like that when I was playing as Italy. After a two year war, that really went back and forth, I managed to take Nuremburg and Munich, before Austria was annexed and I was forced on the defensive. I triggered a peace event and editted ceding Trentino to Germany. Germany then declared war on Poland(Czechoslovakia was left alone) and it was on. I joined the Allies and Germany was defeated with no Eastern Front by 1944. Fun little scenario there with a grain of salt. :p
 
I had a Hearts of Iron 2 game that went roughly like that when I was playing as Italy. After a two year war, that really went back and forth, I managed to take Nuremburg and Munich, before Austria was annexed and I was forced on the defensive. I triggered a peace event and editted ceding Trentino to Germany. Germany then declared war on Poland(Czechoslovakia was left alone) and it was on. I joined the Allies and Germany was defeated with no Eastern Front by 1944. Fun little scenario there with a grain of salt. :p

Well. I've been throwing this idea around for a while, with an old thread called the "Ace and the Duce" where Germany is run by Von Richtofen. It spawned because I identified Italy as the weak link of the world's alliance structures, and therefore, a German move against Italy--one that could avoid Anglo-French interference--is pretty much Germany's best choice for a successful war in the 1940s.

The Italian poster Michele pointed out that the Italian Armed Forces were at their best with their elite Berglaseri Alpine Divisions and that this is going to be a long, hard war with almost no tank action.

The main downside is that Germany, while victorious over Italy, in possession of Austria, Sud-Tirol and Fruilli (as well as Venice itself and therefore a port on the Med), is now surrounded by either enemies (Italy, Poland, and in all likelihood, Hungary) or Allied Nations (Czechoslovakia, France, and perhaps the Low Countries).

Italy is probably no albatross when its people are out for blood in a rematch, its incompetent government toppled and Anglo-French advisers are brought in to support the preparations.
 
1936
Mussolini approaches leadership in France and Britain about Italy's desire to Annex Ethiopia.
Britain and France indicate they have no objections.
Italy invades Ethiopia.

1937
On his way to talk [leak] to a Reporter about the under the table deal between Italy and France, the Opposition Leader is killed.
For the next couple weeks, the Death of the opposition leader is the main story, and Ethiopia disappears from the News.
Even the Death of Emperor Hallie Selassie, while fleeing Ethiopia, isn't enuff to restore traction to the Story.

1938
Germany moves to annex Austria. Mussolini Objects, . Unlike 1934 Mussolini realizes he doesn't have the Military strength to stop Germany.
The Adventure in Ethiopia has shown the Faults in Italy's Military, and It will be several years till Italy finishes It's Military rebuilding.

Septembre 1939
Germany invades Poland, Britian-France DoW Germany, Mussolini wants to Declare War, but his Generals talk Him out of it, As the Military is not ready

Octobre 1939
Italy begins reinforcing/expanding It's Northern Border Fortifications.

May 1940
Germany Invades Norway, Italy begins intense discussions with Britain/France.
Germany Invades France, Italy Formally Joins Allies & DoWs Germany.
Britain begins planning to send a BEF to Italy, to attack Austria.

I Believe this would be enuff to prevent the Fall of France,
Germany has to move troops to the Austrian Border, While France can use the Italian Border troops as reinforcements in the North.
Spain will be Neutral in France's favor, and Italy is a ally. Allowing Britain/France to pull troops out of NAfrica.

If the Butterflies aren't strong enuff to Prevent France's Fall, whe will have Thousands of French Troops evacuating into Italy, to join in the fight to resist the Forthcoming German Invasion.
Most of the US Equipment Headed to France will be diverted to Italy.
 
Unlike 1934 Mussolini realizes he doesn't have the Military strength to stop Germany.
The Adventure in Ethiopia has shown the Faults in Italy's Military, and It will be several years till Italy finishes It's Military rebuilding.

Unlikely. The italian high command showed in those years an unwillingness to lear from their mistakes that is frankly appaling. The deficiensies underlined by both Ethiopia and the civil war in Spain were never faced and solved.

By the way, Duquense, you've forgotten the spanish civil war. Is Italy going to send volunteers and supplies as OTL? And what is the impact on the relationship with the allies and Germany of a neutral position during the civil war?

Anyway, if you desire Italy to join the allies, the best choice remains to eleminate Mussolini from the picture and get Balbo as leader. If the duce dies in the early '40, for example, the transition between leaderships would butterfly away the italian DOW against the allies. Balbo, once consolidated his position, would probably join the british against Germany, maybe in 1941, backstabbing Hitler at the height of operation Barbarossa...

Well. I've been throwing this idea around for a while, with an old thread called the "Ace and the Duce" where Germany is run by Von Richtofen. It spawned because I identified Italy as the weak link of the world's alliance structures, and therefore, a German move against Italy--one that could avoid Anglo-French interference--is pretty much Germany's best choice for a successful war in the 1940s.

The Italian poster Michele pointed out that the Italian Armed Forces were at their best with their elite Berglaseri Alpine Divisions and that this is going to be a long, hard war with almost no tank action.

I remember that discussion. Quite interesting. The main problem was also that you had scheduled the war for the 1934, when Germany still had to rebuild his army while the italian one was reaching his peak. This aside from the diplomatic problems of having the allies stay neutral...
 

AINDF

Banned
Italy would be an albatross around the neck of whoever's side its on. It's industrial capacity was too small to support a long term great power conflict. It suffered from shortages of critical industrial materials. The state was broke from a premature military buildup. However unlike Germany's bankrupting rearmament, Italy enlarged its army, navy, and air force with technology that was already on the cusp obsolescence. Not to mention, the less than stellar performance of Italian generals throughout the second world war.

I think somebody said "Seldom has the addition of another power to an alliance actually made them weaker", or something to that effect.

I could envision Italy still doing things like invading Greece, only this time it will drive them over to the axis!
 
Anyway, if you desire Italy to join the allies, the best choice remains to eleminate Mussolini from the picture and get Balbo as leader. If the duce dies in the early '40, for example, the transition between leaderships would butterfly away the italian DOW against the allies. Balbo, once consolidated his position, would probably join the british against Germany, maybe in 1941, backstabbing Hitler at the height of operation Barbarossa...

Sounds familiar. :D

But yes: Mussolini has to go, or have some serious change of heart. He HATED France to an irrational level. Even his short-lived Stresse Front and similar rapprochements were for him a temporary expedient when Hitler was acting too aggressive over Austria. He often spoke of the need to rearm Germany to offset France ("Either everyone disarms...or Germany arms").

Balbo will side with the Allies. Grandi as well, maybe. Even Ciano is less likely to so blindly follow the Nazi lead.
 
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