WI: Italy-German War Over Austria

Partly, this is going to be a lot of guesswork on both sides.

The Wehrmacht in 1934 would be a tiny force compared to the Italian Army; however, that doesn't mean that Italy is likely to shove all or most of it into Austria.

Some have insisted that Austria craves union with Germany at this period in time. (You'd have thought that the Austrians might have at least asked France and Germany about it in the 1930s if this were true.) In all likelihood, this is probably about 20-35% of the population. Austria would be hard pressed to fight AGAINST Germany, but that doesn't mean that much of Austria would JOIN Germany in a fight against Italy.

Given that the Anschluss 'myth' of Austria desperately wanting annexation is a blatant lie retold by Nazi propaganda (and somehow had an impossible 99% of the vote) I would expect that Germany MIGHT succeed in getting some of its Pan-German nationalists to flee Austria; perhaps a few hundred thousand people run north as a result. But Austria is going to either remain independent or quietly become reliant on an Italian Military Presence to safeguard it from future expansion.

Given that Italy would now warmly accept French and British help to contain Nazi Germany, and that the Czechs are almost certainly going to recieve at least Italian support, I expect that Hitler might come close to breaking Germany as a country.

Poland, Italy, and in this case, the Czechs, are not going to be very nice to Germany ITTL; depending on circumstance, the French, the Belgians (who might not opt for strict neutrality given Germany belligerence) and the UK might also want a share of the spoils.

How Germany responds to military humilation after its nationalism has been essentially hijacked by a madman and the subsequent bankruptcy, land grabs, and very bitter recollections of a nearly complete humiliation of German Nationalism is probably going to lead to crises in the 1960s and 70s, but I would expect that the West would have lost all sympathy for Germany because of this war.

What follows this? A Hard Socialist regime looking for the only other answer? German Lander simply giving up on a Pan-German identity to embrace nationalities as "Hessan, Hannoverian, or Westphalian?". In either case, I would imagine that for the rest of Stalin's life, Poland is simply too strong to mess with.
 

Ian the Admin

Administrator
Donor
You have finally run out of my patience. Study, learn (including some English), abstain from silliness, and maybe you'll be able to make a meaningful contribution to this kind of discussions, some day.

If someone is consistently wrong point it out or ignore them, don't snipe.
 

General Zod

Banned
Some have insisted that Austria craves union with Germany at this period in time. (You'd have thought that the Austrians might have at least asked France and Germany about it in the 1930s if this were true.) In all likelihood, this is probably about 20-35% of the population. Austria would be hard pressed to fight AGAINST Germany, but that doesn't mean that much of Austria would JOIN Germany in a fight against Italy.

Given that the Anschluss 'myth' of Austria desperately wanting annexation is a blatant lie retold by Nazi propaganda (and somehow had an impossible 99% of the vote).

BM, really, I'm not going to comment on the rest, but these statements of yours above are really too farfetched to let them go unscathed. It is a proven fact that the Austrian people did want union with Germany after WWI, as proven by votes of its democratic parliaments, and was only forbidden to do so by Entente threats. In 1934, its government did not, but since it was a Catholic-reactionary quasi-fascist puppet of Italy, its opinion in the matter is highly suspect and by no means ought to be taken as evidence that its resistance against the union was an expression of a changed popular will instead of the dictator's wish to preserve his own power basis.

Likewise, formally ascertaining the will of the Austrian people about the Anschluss is somehow difficult since neither Nazi Germany nor fascist Austria were democracies, so they cannot be trusted with carrying a free and fair referendum on the issue, but there is a convincing body of circumstantial evidence (the vote of democratic Austria to join Germany after WWI, the lack of any substantial organized resistance to the Anschluss or the lack of any Austrian separatist/national anti-Nazi resistance after it, the fact that Nazi Germany state got completely similar levels of loyalty or opposition in Austria or Germany proper, and that any such resistance was political and not separatist/national) that the large majority of the Austrian people either passively consented or actively welcomed the Anschluss. The Nazi lied about the level of consent as dictators always do about such ridiculous percentages, but it is another post-WWII Allied blatant le that the Anschluss was carried by violence against the will of the Austrian people, as in the invasions of Poland and Western Europe. The Anschluss was a special case, very much akin the Wars of Italian Independence, where force was used to oust an undemocratic leadership which opposed a national unification that the people either embraced or passively consented to. That the leadership of the unified larger nation later misused such consent to do horrible things does not retroactively invalidate it.

In all likelihood, a free and fair referendum about the Anschluss would have carried similar rates of approval as the 1935 Saar one.
 
As far as weapons are concern remember both Italy and Austria used the Austrian designed 47mm ATG. This weapon would have destroyed the PZ I And Pz II and been a threat to Germany's heavier tanks.

What Panzer II? What heavier tanks? Aren't we talking about 1934? The German tanks are some Panzer Is. Nothing else.
 
All rigth. Take a map of Austria-Italy border. Now please explain me how is possible that in the event of a war between Germany and Italy, the latter won't occupy all the passes and strategic points.

Note that with the German Heer starting from Germany, they'll need to come into Austria first. The place where they will first encounter Italian units will be, in the best scenario, within Austria, not on the border. In the worst scenario the Germans will first have to fight Austrian units. I expect significant actions to take place in the Inn valley.
 
Partly, this is going to be a lot of guesswork on both sides.


Some have insisted that Austria craves union with Germany at this period in time. (You'd have thought that the Austrians might have at least asked France and Germany about it in the 1930s if this were true.) In all likelihood, this is probably about 20-35% of the population. Austria would be hard pressed to fight AGAINST Germany, but that doesn't mean that much of Austria would JOIN Germany in a fight against Italy.

As you say, this is guesswork. It's hard to say how much the Austrians as a whole really liked the idea, given that we do not have any objective and free and fair measurement of it.
But everything considered, my guess is the Austrians favorable to the union would be in the order of 50%. Maybe more, maybe less, we can't know.

The point, in this situation, is that the Austrian army will be basically ineffective; it won't fight the Germans or the Italians, if not half-heartedly, ineffectively and in confusion. Probably having the same effect on both sides. The Vienna government might order its units to fight the Germans and not the Italians, orders might be ignored by local commanders, etc.

This, however, boils down to both sides being slightly delayed. Probably the Germans a bit more than the Italians. So when they meet, it's somewhere in Austria.
From there for the Germans to advance, along narrow Austrian valleys, to the high Alpine passes to get into Northern Italy, it's a long way.
 
Note that with the German Heer starting from Germany, they'll need to come into Austria first. The place where they will first encounter Italian units will be, in the best scenario, within Austria, not on the border.

Exactly my point. Even allowing the worst case possible, id est italian troops repelled towards the Alps, the germans would have to attack an enemy entrenched in highly defensive position.
 
Remember if the Austrian Army resist the Germans then the Italians will be able to quickly move in to reinforce the Austrians and check them in the passes from Germany.
 
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