WI Italy does not sign the Pact of Steel?

So, Italy remaining neutral removes both the North African Front, and possibly also the short-lived but damaging (for the British) Greek Front, which maybe allows them to move more forces east, so maybe Singapore can hold out longer.

It also eliminates all the nonsense in the Middle East with Iraq, and the East African campaign.

An equally important factor is that the Mediterranean remains open to Allied shipping. This means not going around Africa, and thus increases effective Allied shipping capacity a lot.

In fact the Mediterranean is a de facto Allied lake. Unless the Germans can extort basing rights from Vichy France, there's nowhere for their subs to operate from in the Med. The currents at Gibraltar are such that a WW II sub can go in, but can't get out. And the Straits would be heavily patrolled from a nearby base, making any submarine passage very chancy.
 
If Ww2 Starts As scripted in this Timeline, And if the opening stages are similar, I Wonder what hitler and Churchill would offer to Mussolini to GEt Italy on the "right" side. I can imagine that a "free Hand around the Adria" becomes a possibility.
 
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