WI: Italy and Austria-Hungary side with France in the Franco-Prussian War

How about North German Federation + Italy + Russia on one side and Austria + France + Ottomans on the other? UK finances everyone and maybe prunes a few colonies in the process, US makes a nice post-ACW economic recovery while maybe ex-Confederate soldiers find work as mercenaries, sort of a "lost legion" concept?

Maybe the war backfires from its original purpose and leaves a united South German Federation (Greater Bavaria in all but name perhaps with German Austria) under British protection, a remaining French Empire under the son of Napoleon III, a Prussia that takes Bohemia and Moravia while perhaps Hungary goes free with a titular Poland out of former Galicia. Italy gets Venice and Rome, probably not Corsica or Tunisia, and Russia takes Wallachia and Moravia while making plans for Bulgaria and Kars. France survives only due to British aid and then as a mean of preventing Communism from taking root while the Ottomans enact reforms that may or may not work. All the while the US sits it out and Spain buys back a random colony or two at discount prices because they can. Would Japan be offered a chance to buy Samhain or Kamchatka under these circumstances and how would China or Africa be affected? Does South Africa unite earlier and expand farther if they can take foreign territory on their own or do the Boers go deeper into the continent found a lasting nation in OTL Mozambique or Botswana?

Worse Long Depression, mayhaps WWII analogue coincident with/in place of the Scramble for Africa?

What would be really interesting then is if there was either more explicit French jickijackery during the ACW (perhaps Puebla goes sideways for the defenders, and Mad Max's empire gets better established earlier allowing it to be used as a platform for French assistance to the Confederacy) or more explicit Prusso-Russian support for the Union cause, or both, which would put the United States very much on the anti-French side in the next conflict...
 
Honestly I dont see Austria just handing ower Gorizia and the whole deal you propose is not possible because of this. FJ was proud that he never lost a territory without fighting for it.

And I cant see Austria joining the war against Prussia:
The germans of the Empire wouldnt like it and the Hungarians wouldnt like it as in opposing it at every turn. Potentially strengthening Austia with german lands is not a goal they would be willing to fight for as it would destroy the new balance created by the Ausgleich. They would have nothing to win and a lot to loose.
 
Now the administration of Austria and Bohemia is tricky. Post-Habsburg there will need to be new princes for Bohemia (unless its incorporated directly into Prussia) and a new Archduke for Austria. Prussian sentiment, wanting to destroy Austria, but not *become* Austria might settle on a policy for at least a decade of treating the Archduchy of Austria as conquered, unrepresented territory, administered by the Reich as a whole, as punishment for its race betrayal during the struggle with France.

Well, more catholics inside Prussia is the worst case scenario... for Prussia.

Having the austrians inside the empire as conquered people for 10 years doesn't make them less catholic, but make them more salty.
 
Well, more catholics inside Prussia is the worst case scenario... for Prussia.

Having the austrians inside the empire as conquered people for 10 years doesn't make them less catholic, but make them more salty.

How about swapping Bavaria for Bohemia then? North German Federation + OTL Czech Republic vs South German Federation + OTL Austria and Slovenia with an independent Hungary? the former is an industrial powerhouse while the latter is strong enough to form part of a potential counterweight?
 
How about swapping Bavaria for Bohemia then? North German Federation + OTL Czech Republic vs South German Federation + OTL Austria and Slovenia with an independent Hungary? the former is an industrial powerhouse while the latter is strong enough to form part of a potential counterweight?
The Catholic King of Saxony can become King of Austria and Lutheran Saxony can be given a Protestant King.
 
How about swapping Bavaria for Bohemia then? North German Federation + OTL Czech Republic vs South German Federation + OTL Austria and Slovenia with an independent Hungary? the former is an industrial powerhouse while the latter is strong enough to form part of a potential counterweight?

But the bohemians were catholic, why would they side with the protestants? Nationalistic reasons maybe?
 
But the bohemians were catholic, why would they side with the protestants? Nationalistic reasons maybe?
I wouldnt call the Czech the most Catholic people, given their history of Hussite rebellions, reformation and independentist against Catholic Austria.
 
I wouldnt call the Czech the most Catholic people, given their history of Hussite rebellions, reformation and independentist against Catholic Austria.

But the Hussite rebellion was some centuries earlier. Even today, Catholics are now a tenth of the population yes, but they are ten times the number of any other church.

Why wouldn't they be independentist from Germany?
 
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But the Hussite rebellion was some centuries earlier. Even today, Catholics are now a tenth of the population yes, but they are ten times the number of any other church.

Why wouldn't they be independentist from Germany?
Nobody said they wouldn´t, they just wouldn´t be part of the Catholic German speaking populace.
 
But the bohemians were catholic, why would they side with the protestants? Nationalistic reasons maybe?

I was presuming they would be taken from AH as a war prize. But with a South German Federation existent containing most of the German Catholics the numbers should roughly balance out for the North German Federation.
 

raharris1973

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Honestly I dont see Austria just handing ower Gorizia and the whole deal you propose is not possible because of this. FJ was proud that he never lost a territory without fighting for it.

And I cant see Austria joining the war against Prussia:
The germans of the Empire wouldnt like it and the Hungarians wouldnt like it as in opposing it at every turn. Potentially strengthening Austia with german lands is not a goal they would be willing to fight for as it would destroy the new balance created by the Ausgleich. They would have nothing to win and a lot to loose.



That's why I will raise the proposal I mentioned before hand, Austria-Hungary coming in on Prussia's side, as much because Italy is on the French side as anything else. After all, pummeling Italians is probably a change Both Austrians and Hungarians can believe in:

---I know this diverts from the OP, but it could be interesting if Italy, but not Austria-Hungary, makes a commitment to France early in the war.

Seeing this and early Prussian successes, Austria-Hungary might end up in a mood to attack and pummel their small but persistent enemy, Italy, trying to gain back Venetia and Milan and charge an indemnity and get good ole revenge.

Propagandists on both sides of the war may characterize it in racial terms, "Teutons" versus "Latins". Russia will be benevolently neutral toward the Austro-Prussian coalition.
 
That's why I will raise the proposal I mentioned before hand, Austria-Hungary coming in on Prussia's side, as much because Italy is on the French side as anything else. After all, pummeling Italians is probably a change Both Austrians and Hungarians can believe in:

The problem with this is how do you start it?

How do you get Italy to join France?
There are two things that France could offer: Rome which is occupied by France and/or Nice and Savoy. Abandoning the Pope pisses of the french catholics and i dont think that the government would do it. Nice and Savoy are more likely but they are the only actual European territorial gains of the regime so they might be reluctant to give it up.
And most of all i think that the french believed that they could win this without foreign support so I dont think they would go around offering such concessions for help before its too late. After Sedan its decided.

I also dont see Austria joining without Italy joining first against Prussia.

But lets say it happens, I dont think it changes that much in this war:
Prussia still beats France handily and seeing how Italy fared against only part of the Austrian forces in 1866 I would put my money in Venice and maybe even Milan ending up again as parts of the Empire. Austria may also take France's place in securing the independence of Rome and the Pope.

In long term this would make Austria the unquestionable number one enemy of Italy. As they will have much more of their attantion in Italy they might care less about the Balkans so maybe a bit less tension with Russia. This wont be enough to avoid 1878 but maybe could be enough to better manage 1885. If Bulgaria is firmly in the Russian camp than Russia might care less for Serbia. The question is if Austria could solve the Serbian problem in 1903. If yes you might avoid WWI. However I think Austria could have solved the Serbian problem OTL as well but didnt. So in the long run after WWI I think we will be mostly back to OTL. Italy might feel less cheated as he regained the lost Venice and maybe Milan. Aside from that not much changes.
 
If you want Austria in the war you need only have a different PM for Hungary. But it might shatter the AH with the Habsburgs coming to power over much of OTL Southern Germany and reshaping the Continent, as well as colonization, in the process. For want of a nail and all of that.
 
If you want Austria in the war you need only have a different PM for Hungary. But it might shatter the AH with the Habsburgs coming to power over much of OTL Southern Germany and reshaping the Continent, as well as colonization, in the process. For want of a nail and all of that.
Awfully presumptuous, its not out of the question for Prussia to actually beat both of them with only the German minor allies it went into the otl war with, smashing France and then turning around and bearing its full might down on Austria.
 
Awfully presumptuous, its not out of the question for Prussia to actually beat both of them with only the German minor allies it went into the otl war with, smashing France and then turning around and bearing its full might down on Austria.

That was actually what I had in mind with a map and alliance redraw on the Continent in the process
 
That was actually what I had in mind with a map and alliance redraw on the Continent in the process
You honestly think the Prussians would permit the habsburgs to come to power in southern Germany after this? Last time Prussia let them off easy and the result was the Austrians attacked them in their next war, this time I doubt they will be so lucky, there will be annexations.
Perhaps Prussia will take the rest of silesia, Bavaria may be given Tyrol, Bohemia-Moravia could become a Kingdom in the new German Empire, this could be paired with similar to otl gains in France.
 
You honestly think the Prussians would permit the habsburgs to come to power in southern Germany after this? Last time Prussia let them off easy and the result was the Austrians attacked them in their next war, this time I doubt they will be so lucky, there will be annexations.
Perhaps Prussia will take the rest of silesia, Bavaria may be given Tyrol, Bohemia-Moravia could become a Kingdom in the new German Empire, this could be paired with similar to otl gains in France.

If Hungary gains independence in the process and a true South German Confederation is born I think it is possible. Besides it would be very ironic if a war intended to unite Germany served only to divide it further and more formally divide it instead.
 
I really don't see the conquest of the Czechs as a project for the NGF; the whole point of Kleindeutchland was to keep the dirty Habsburg mongrel realms out. If Austria doesn't immediately fold when Russia enters the war on the Prussian side, then I could see the NGF nabbing the German parts of the empire while the Russians become hegemons over the Hungarian+Slavic parts of the empire. The Bavarians would probably get the Tyrol; the South German allies of the NGF were on the verge of quitting on the eve of the war, and the incorporation of conquered territories into the kings' domains would make for nice compensation for the alliance.

What might be interesting is if they carve out Austrian Galicia as a Polish rump state (under the Saxon king possibly?) to be a pressure valve on their Polish populations.
 

raharris1973

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I also dont see Austria joining without Italy joining first against Prussia.

But lets say it happens, I dont think it changes that much in this war:
Prussia still beats France handily and seeing how Italy fared against only part of the Austrian forces in 1866 I would put my money in Venice and maybe even Milan ending up again as parts of the Empire. Austria may also take France's place in securing the independence of Rome and the Pope.

If we really wanted to make this an Austrian ROFLSTOMP, the Austrians could advance through Venetia to Romagna, the Marches, Pentapolis and Umbria to reach Rome, restoring all these territories between the Patrimony of St. Peter and Venice to the Pope again, and leaving Italy split into a southern part, Naples and Sicily, and a northwestern part, based around Piedmont and Tuscany.

Such a curbstomp of the Italians might be hard for Britain to swallow, but I cannot say I am sure I would see British diplomatic, economic or naval intervention to stop such a dismemberment.
 
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