WI Italians Discover Oil in Libya Before World War 2?

So let's say it's the mid to late 20's or early 30's and the Italians suddenly find the oil reserves under the Libyan desert. How does this affect:

a) Benito Mussolini's rule/political effects in prewar Italy

b) His relationship with ole Adolf (prewar and beyond - with Benny having his hand on the gas pump the Wehrmacht must drink from, does Adolf accord him more respect?)

c) The prewar military preparations and diplomacy of both Italy and Germany

c) The strategic outlook of Benny and Adolf for prosecuting WW2 (more Mediterranean focus? A larger Deutsche Afrika Korps? Malta becomes a priority target for invasion?)

d) The rest of World War 2 and beyond...

Caveat question:

Can the Italians even build up a robust infrastructure in enough time before the war? Even in peacetime, I imagine the economic benefits of finding a whole lotta oil on a piece of land you control to be enough motivation to pump it out as fast as possible for domestic use and for export, war preparations or not.

Thanks! :D
 

Insider

Banned
So let's say it's the mid to late 20's or early 30's and the Italians suddenly find the oil reserves under the Libyan desert. How does this affect:

a) Benito Mussolini's rule/political effects in prewar Italy

b) His relationship with ole Adolf (prewar and beyond - with Benny having his hand on the gas pump the Wehrmacht must drink from, does Adolf accord him more respect?)

c) The prewar military preparations and diplomacy of both Italy and Germany

c) The strategic outlook of Benny and Adolf for prosecuting WW2 (more Mediterranean focus? A larger Deutsche Afrika Korps? Malta becomes a priority target for invasion?)

d) The rest of World War 2 and beyond...

Caveat question:

Can the Italians even build up a robust infrastructure in enough time before the war? Even in peacetime, I imagine the economic benefits of finding a whole lotta oil on a piece of land you control to be enough motivation to pump it out as fast as possible for domestic use and for export, war preparations or not.

Thanks! :D

a) The oil in thirties isn't exactly the instant win. Surely Italy would do economicaly better, and Mussolini position would be more stable,
b) Prewar position of Italy would be more assertive - that could put Hitler in conflict with Italy during Anschluss. (Italian forgein policy was make Nazi Germany our disstant friend, with emphasis for disstant)
c) The railways and strong corps fit for desert warfare - that would be Italian development in Libya. If this desert is worth something it would be defended.
A more trained navy, and more pressure on navy-airforce cooperation would also be handy
As for diplomacy, there is the tough point. With stronger Italy, I belive it would be difficult to keep them on Axis side in 1940. They would either be on allied side, or remain neutral, of course unless the Wallies would do something thoroughly stupid. (blockade? :rolleyes: )
Even then the Italy would do better, by the virtue of soldiers being better eqiupped, having full tanks, and believing that they are fighting against Brittish who did something to attack them, not that they are fighting a "Duce's War"

And... as dealing with geology, shoudn't it be in ASB?
 

Deleted member 1487

Been addressed many a time here, use the search function. The oil was way too deep and in the middle of nowhere to be discovered pre-WW2. The infrastructure took 10 years to build up after a decade of searching for oil; after being discovered post-WW2 oil production didn't really get online until nearly 1960. In 1940 for instance there wasn't even a rail line along the Libyan coast, let alone rail lines into the unpopulated interior. It would have been a hugely expensive effort to build up the necessary infrastructure and to even look for the oil where it was would have required a major effort too, which only was available after WW2.
 
One could hope the Mussolini with oil revenue coming in from Libya wouldn't be so dumb in this TL as to pick a fight with the British and French, who could wreck his tankers, pipelines, fields and refineries so quickly and easily, even if the war were short.
 
I agree with Wikings remarks. it looks like that while extraction in bulk by 1940 was technically possible the cost of extraction and transportation would have made in uncompetitive with US, Rumanian, or other sources. The Italian government would have had to heavily subsidize the effort.

The other question is what good it would have done for the Axis. The cross Med run is vulnerable to air, surface, and submarine interdiction, the Italian ship building industry could not keep up with the losses of OTL. A refinery anywhere in Lybia would a vulnerable priority target to Brit air attack.

Actually such a target might become a liability. If the Allies learn much from a sustained campaign vs a Italian refinery it might make German industry more vulnerable later.
 

Deleted member 1487

One could hope the Mussolini with oil revenue coming in from Libya wouldn't be so dumb in this TL as to pick a fight with the British and French, who could wreck his tankers, pipelines, fields and refineries so quickly and easily, even if the war were short.

I agree with Wikings remarks. it looks like that while extraction in bulk by 1940 was technically possible the cost of extraction and transportation would have made in uncompetitive with US, Rumanian, or other sources. The Italian government would have had to heavily subsidize the effort.

The other question is what good it would have done for the Axis. The cross Med run is vulnerable to air, surface, and submarine interdiction, the Italian ship building industry could not keep up with the losses of OTL. A refinery anywhere in Lybia would a vulnerable priority target to Brit air attack.

Actually such a target might become a liability. If the Allies learn much from a sustained campaign vs a Italian refinery it might make German industry more vulnerable later.

If by some bizarre ASB magic the Italians would ever get the oil out by 1940 and are willing to subsidize the cost for domestic use all the reasons above would keep the out of the war. It would totally wreck their investment. Plus any investment in oil then would have to come at the expense of getting involved in Ethopia and expanding the military, which precludes Italian participation in WW2. They'd be neutral and probably find offers for above market purchases of their oil by Germany and the Allies. Eventually Italy would just have to join the Allies late in the war to get on their good side. In the long run that's just everything Italy could possibly hope for to have a prosperous post-1940s existence.
 
That all logical, but Mussolini was using a different logic when he jumped in during June 1940. After all the Allies were on the ropes and near surrender, right? Britian continuing the war was wholly illogical from many peoples PoV that month.
 

Deleted member 1487

That all logical, but Mussolini was using a different logic when he jumped in during June 1940. After all the Allies were on the ropes and near surrender, right? Britian continuing the war was wholly illogical from many peoples PoV that month.
Yeah that is certainly a potential situation, but I think given how vulnerable the Libyan oil industry would have been and how weak the Italian military would have been in 1940 had all the necessary funds to make even the least amount of oil from Libya be pumped, I don't see even Mussolini risking it. Libya would be the resource colony that Italy had always wanted and the French and British would try and make a play for it if he joined in, which I think he would be extremely fearful of and it was worth FAR more than any scraps from France. Of course I may be wrong and Mussolini far more stupid than even I am giving him credit for.
 

Insider

Banned
If he doesn't invade Etiopia or allow Entente to act as a peace broker, there wouldn't be a need to look for allies in Germany, because there wouldn't be a sanctions (or they would be shortlived).
 

NoMommsen

Donor
For the purpose of a commen base for discussion :

-1955 first rights for exploration granted
-1958 January first find of oil at the Gulf of Sidra (Great 'Syrte' for germans :p)
Building of facilities and 167 kilometers of pipeline :
-1961 September first shipping of oil from from Marsa el Brega

So : no 10 years of searching plus 10 years of developing an infrastructure ...

Source : History of Libya, german Wiki

Addition about exploration methods :
Seismic exploration of oil was invented 1919 in ... Germany :D
with the foundation of the Seismos company 1921, first major success 1924 in a salt dome near Houston, Texas, further positive engagements in Egypt, Iraque and Persia for several oil companies

Source : Prakla-Seismos
(sry no english wiki-version)
 
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NoMommsen

Donor
Possible (hi)story of early italio-libyan oil :

After first results governorship of Emilio De Bono (southern Fessan 1925, oasis Jaghbub 1926) Benny thinks :
These Brits, in every desert they drill they find oil! ... I have a nice desert too ...
And in 1926/27 he makes a deal with Seimos of Germany for exploitation.
(btw : not only at the Gulf of Sidra is oil to be found, also in southern Tripolitania and northern Fessan ..., lesser Senussi-troubles there ;))

And, ofc, he orders his governors to be even a bit more 'peacebringing'.

Following OTL timetable (givin a bit more) :
first find of oil 1931/2,
first shipment about 1936/7.
(10 years instead of 6 OTL).

Leaves enough time and room for some interesting buisness with a very oil-greedy northern neighbour.

And for Commando Supremo a new high priority task to be considered for the next years :
How to get rid of the Malta-threat - when time comes.;)
 
Standard Oil, BP, Shell, were three international players with the engineering weight to do this. They'd just need some large scale underwriting from the guvment
 

NoMommsen

Donor
As a first idea I would assume Benny would go with (neutral) Royal Dutch Shell (even though they had common marketing buisness with BP).
 
In the 1930s both Italy and Standard Oil were active in expanding the Rumanian industry. Maybe the Italians developed a business relationship with Standard? I dont know?
 
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