WI - Italian Ethiopia?

The Italians initiated multiple "modernization" (for lack of a better word) programs in Libya, and Italian planners regarded Libya in particular in high regard for future Italian expansion (the whole "fourth shore" thing). The Italians built modern highways as well as other projects and, once oil is discovered, this kind of investment would continue to flow in. If Libya remains under Italian control until the late 60s or 70s it could end up with a plurality Italian population as well, which opens up many interesting possibilities come the 90s, 00s, and 2010s.

This likely won't be the case for Ethiopia. On the one hand Ethiopia would be lacking in significant mineral/petroleum deposits to warrant continued Italian investment like in Libya, and on another Ethiopia's larger population (who have a history of independence and have developed a national identity) and more rugged terrain would lead to problems in Italian expansion into the hinterlands. I don't think we'd see a Vietnam level conflict in the colony only because I don't see Britain or France arming rebels there for fear of the conflict spilling over into their own colonies. The US won't disturb a potential anti-Communist ally depending on how the war goes. Maybe the Soviets could arm the rebels, but again, depending on how the war goes, maybe they're too weak to really bother with Ethiopia (besides, I doubt the Ethiopian rebels would really be Communists so much as anti-fascists). I could see Mussolini trying to hang on for the rest of the 40s and maybe 50s, but once he dies the Italians probably start pulling out, de-colonizing the country sometime by the late 60s or 70s.
You're most likely right about all of this - what potential could Italian Ethiopia have and what could make it appealing for colonization?
 
This likely won't be the case for Ethiopia. On the one hand Ethiopia would be lacking in significant mineral/petroleum deposits to warrant continued Italian investment like in Libya, and on another Ethiopia's larger population (who have a history of independence and have developed a national identity) and more rugged terrain would lead to problems in Italian expansion into the hinterlands. I don't think we'd see a Vietnam level conflict in the colony only because I don't see Britain or France arming rebels there for fear of the conflict spilling over into their own colonies. The US won't disturb a potential anti-Communist ally depending on how the war goes. Maybe the Soviets could arm the rebels, but again, depending on how the war goes, maybe they're too weak to really bother with Ethiopia (besides, I doubt the Ethiopian rebels would really be Communists so much as anti-fascists). I could see Mussolini trying to hang on for the rest of the 40s and maybe 50s, but once he dies the Italians probably start pulling out, de-colonizing the country sometime by the late 60s or 70s.

A Post-Italitan Ethiopia would be very interesting to see. Who would rule it? Could Haile Selassie, or his son Amha Selassie come back? The Italians who try and stay? Would the public of Italy force Mussolini hand in leaving sooner? (As said, Ethiopia would be mostyl forgotten about and kept to the side.)

And I do kind of what the USA, or USSR to support the Patriots just to see how that would look.
 
A Post-Italitan Ethiopia would be very interesting to see. Who would rule it? Could Haile Selassie, or his son Amha Selassie come back? The Italians who try and stay? Would the public of Italy force Mussolini hand in leaving sooner? (As said, Ethiopia would be mostyl forgotten about and kept to the side.)

And I do kind of what the USA, or USSR to support the Patriots just to see how that would look.
A post-IEA Ethiopia would most likely be ruled by Ras Imru who's a member of the Royal Family (as Haile Selassie's cousin) and is favored by the people as a war hero who has had successes whilst fighting the Italians. There might be an apartheid government implemented but I don't think this would last long and the Italians might be smart enough to not do this. If the news of the Patriots' guerrilla warfare reaches the Italian peninsula, then they might attempt to force Mussolini into leaving so that their sons and husbands stop dying there.

Both have the possibility of supporting the Patriots but it seems to me that the USSR would favor supporting the anti-fascist Patriots against the fascist Italians.
 

Pax

Banned
You're most likely right about all of this - what potential could Italian Ethiopia have and what could make it appealing for colonization?

The potential wouldn't be much. The Italians wouldn't have very effective control of the rural areas where most of what resources Ethiopia does have would come from. It could provide a nice Red Sea coastline for the RM, but even then the Italians already have Somaliland for a base, and it's not like the Eritrean coast is something particularly crucial to Italian strategic planning. Now, depending on how the war goes, Italian East Africa could be a nice platform to attack French and British Somaliland and maybe push up the Nile into Sudan and, worst case scenario for the Brits, Egypt as well. That would prove a very valuable strategic acquisition, but the question is whether or not the opportunity would have arisen for the Italians to accomplish even half of that.
 
The potential wouldn't be much. The Italians wouldn't have very effective control of the rural areas where most of what resources Ethiopia does have would come from. It could provide a nice Red Sea coastline for the RM, but even then the Italians already have Somaliland for a base, and it's not like the Eritrean coast is something particularly crucial to Italian strategic planning. Now, depending on how the war goes, Italian East Africa could be a nice platform to attack French and British Somaliland and maybe push up the Nile into Sudan and, worst case scenario for the Brits, Egypt as well. That would prove a very valuable strategic acquisition, but the question is whether or not the opportunity would have arisen for the Italians to accomplish even half of that.
What if we implemented what Oldbill recommended earlier:
Wars are hideously expensive, and the Italian economy isn't in great shape. However, if there is no longer an embargo due to Italian neutrality, Italy's economy will be helped. The troops sent to N. Africa can be used in Ethiopia and along the Austrian border. More troops mean the insurgency will struggle as they flood the countryside. If enough locals can be recruited, the situation gets worse for the Patriots. Italy needs to use a "Carrot and Stick" approach to make things work. Do good things in areas that aren't fighting against them. Build hospitals, schools, railways and roads, bring some type of jobs and infrastructural improvements to the area, bring in new ways of farming that fill bellies, create coffee plantations. They have to be seen to be making life better for people to take away the willingness of the people to continue fighting, and continue to do this until folks see the Patriots as bandits and bad guys standing in the way of a better way of life.
 

Pax

Banned
What if we implemented what Oldbill recommended earlier:

The Italians usually did have a pretty good record on developing colonial infrastructure, but even then you have to remember the colonies Italy built up were relatively smaller (almost all of Libya's population and resources were within a hundred miles of the coast) in both population and land area. Ethiopia would easily dwarf Somaliland, for example, in both the size needed to be built up and the population of it. Then you have to factor in the rough terrain of Ethiopia, how it's not a hop skip and jump right off of a port to bring in necessary materials, and the guerrilla war raging in the outskirts and then you have a tricky situation. The Italians did develop some infrastructure in the colony, and I do believe they'd continue doing it, but I don't think we'd see a similar level of success in Italian Ethiopia as we would in Italian Libya and Italian Somaliland.

On another note, more Italian troops could also antagonize the rural populations even more. Perhaps the best solution would be colonial outfits, which the Italians did use (even in WW2 against the Allies) and which were decently equipped and trained.
 
The Italians usually did have a pretty good record on developing colonial infrastructure, but even then you have to remember the colonies Italy built up were relatively smaller (almost all of Libya's population and resources were within a hundred miles of the coast) in both population and land area. Ethiopia would easily dwarf Somaliland, for example, in both the size needed to be built up and the population of it. Then you have to factor in the rough terrain of Ethiopia, how it's not a hop skip and jump right off of a port to bring in necessary materials, and the guerrilla war raging in the outskirts and then you have a tricky situation. The Italians did develop some infrastructure in the colony, and I do believe they'd continue doing it, but I don't think we'd see a similar level of success in Italian Ethiopia as we would in Italian Libya and Italian Somaliland.

On another note, more Italian troops could also antagonize the rural populations even more. Perhaps the best solution would be colonial outfits, which the Italians did use (even in WW2 against the Allies) and which were decently equipped and trained.
So how could we get the Italians to not commit atrocities against the Ethiopians and recognize that antagonizing them was only going to increase support for the Patriots? Maybe have someone else be Viceroy of Italian East Africa instead of Graziani but I’m not sure who.

How developed could an Italian Ethiopia be if the Italians decided to adopt a more “carrot and stick” approach? Then the Patriots might become nothing more than bandits part of the former Ethiopian Army.
 

Pax

Banned
So how could we get the Italians to not commit atrocities against the Ethiopians and recognize that antagonizing them was only going to increase support for the Patriots? Maybe have someone else be Viceroy of Italian East Africa instead of Graziani but I’m not sure who.

How developed could an Italian Ethiopia be if the Italians decided to adopt a more “carrot and stick” approach? Then the Patriots might become nothing more than bandits part of the former Ethiopian Army.

If all goes well, then they could become similar to South Africa, maybe a tad more developed if they keep Eritrea as well. But that's highly unlikely.
 
If all goes well, then they could become similar to South Africa, maybe a tad more developed if they keep Eritrea as well. But that's highly unlikely.
It might be a bit more developed than South Africa if they keep Eritrea but I feel like at most, post-Italian Ethiopia keeps Tigray - could Eritrea be federated with Ethiopia following independence? Somalia is gonna become independent with the Ogaden province (OTL 1/3 of Ethiopian territory) so the Italians might compensate by federating Eritrea with Ethiopia but I'm unsure.
 

Pax

Banned
It might be a bit more developed than South Africa if they keep Eritrea but I feel like at most, post-Italian Ethiopia keeps Tigray - could Eritrea be federated with Ethiopia following independence? Somalia is gonna become independent with the Ogaden province (OTL 1/3 of Ethiopian territory) so the Italians might compensate by federating Eritrea with Ethiopia but I'm unsure.

I think that depends on how the occupation goes, which is really up to the author.
 
I think that depends on how the occupation goes, which is really up to the author.
Could the Italians adopt a more lenient/benevolent attitude towards the Ethiopian population from the being of the occupation instead of implementing racial policies and committing atrocities? Would this take someone else to become Viceroy and if so, who? That way, Italian development of Ethiopia might go faster with the cooperation of the Ethiopian people.
 

Pax

Banned
Could the Italians adopt a more lenient/benevolent attitude towards the Ethiopian population from the being of the occupation instead of implementing racial policies and committing atrocities? Would this take someone else to become Viceroy and if so, who? That way, Italian development of Ethiopia might go faster with the cooperation of the Ethiopian people.

I think they definitely could, even with the same slate of people running it. The Italians in general were never as fanatic about race and ethnic cleansing as the Germans. It would just take time and resources, and that might be more than Italy has.
 
I think they definitely could, even with the same slate of people running it. The Italians in general were never as fanatic about race and ethnic cleansing as the Germans. It would just take time and resources, and that might be more than Italy has.
Yeah, Italian Ethiopia might be less of a priority than Italian Libya if the Italians are given more time to develop their colonies/possessions in Africa. Perhaps if the Italians find oil in Libya during World War 2, that could provide a source of revenue if they sell it to Nazi Germany and/or the Allies but I'm not sure if the Italians could do so. If the Italians decide to join the Allied Powers in 1944 or 45, they'll receive aid in the form of financial and material support which could go towards developing her colonies. Depending on how long the Italians decide to hold onto Ethiopia (maybe she relinquishes it in the 50s or 60s), Ethiopia could become quite developed in terms of infrastructure, economy, etc.
 
The Italians sent over 200,000 men to the eastern front. They were very important in the Stalingrad campaign too. Take them out and the German advance to and through Stalingrad slows down a lot sooner
In 42 it may hurt some but in 41 no Italy may mean German victory in 41 in the east and no Italy in 42 becomes moot point. Also replace the Italians troops in Russia with Germans in Greece, and North Africa maybe Yugoslavia as well as neutral Italy could also mean a neutral Yugo
 
In 42 it may hurt some but in 41 no Italy may mean German victory in 41 in the east and no Italy in 42 becomes moot point. Also replace the Italians troops in Russia with Germans in Greece, and North Africa maybe Yugoslavia as well as neutral Italy could also mean a neutral Yugo

Yugoslavia internal situation it's complicated in the period; Greece or not, Adolf can feel 'forced' to invade nevertheless to secure it's rearguard. No other front mean also Stalin being more difficult to be convinced that all the signal for an imminent German invasion are some mistake or a British trick
 
Yugoslavia internal situation it's complicated in the period; Greece or not, Adolf can feel 'forced' to invade nevertheless to secure it's rearguard. No other front mean also Stalin being more difficult to be convinced that all the signal for an imminent German invasion are some mistake or a British trick
Hitler didn’t plan to move against Yugoslavia until Greece forced his hand. At that point he needs an axis allied Yugoslavia or axis conquered Yugoslavia. If Italy’s neutral no Greece and no need catalyst for Yugoslavia. Stalin believed what he wanted to believe. More than sufficient evidence of German intentions. Even with the North African campaign there was no reason to think Hitler wouldn’t go east. It was his life aim, their mortal enemy and only option that didn’t surrender the initiative. Germany without a major ally I think would negate Germany without commitments in another theatre but we are straying off Italian Ethiopia. Bad idea, focus on Libya, closer, less population and historically part of the old Roman Empire for the new Roman empire
 
More for Greece it will depend if the pro-allied coup happen in Belgrade or not; and Stalin believed that Germany will have never attacked...while a war with the British and the front in North Africa and Greece had helped to stick with this idea
 
On another note, more Italian troops could also antagonize the rural populations even more. Perhaps the best solution would be colonial outfits, which the Italians did use (even in WW2 against the Allies) and which were decently equipped and trained.
I'm not sure how much better the colonial forces or bande would be, considering that they also committed atrocities against the general Ethiopian populace and were another reason why the Ethiopian Patriots were receiving increasing support from the civilian population OTL. I remember one Ethiopian veteran of the conflict recalling the battles between the Patriots and the bande as a sort of "civil war" instigated by the Italians.
 
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