WI - Italian Ethiopia?

The Italians would attempt to colonize Ethiopia following their invasion of Ethiopia in 1935 which resulted in an Italian victory as the Ethiopian Royal Family and government fled into exile in London. The Italians would attempt to occupy all of Ethiopia but this failed as it was nothing more than a military occupation in which the Italians had control only over the large population centers. Ethiopia would be liberated by Allied forces - British Commonwealth, Free Ethiopian, Free French and Belgian - in 1941 as Haile Selassie was restored in 1941 as the Emperor of Ethiopia alongside his Cabinet which would become the government.

However, what if the Italians had decided to remain neutral and focus on developing their colonial empire instead of becoming involved in yet another European war? What effect would this have on Fascist Italy which remains neutral (until 1944 or 1945) and becomes apart of the Western bloc in the Cold War?
 
First off: If Italy does not join the War, you just gave one hell of a free hand to the Third Reich. No Balkan Campaign, no North Africa. All that time, supplies, and manpower going to Russia, and not having to save their asses nine times out of ten. There is a strong possibility of Germany winning the War, or it lasting much longer. Germany came close to winning at Stalingrad. With 100,000+ German troops not in North Africa, and the hundreds of aircraft, both fighters & bombers, and tanks...6th Army takes the city before the end of September?

The Allies would also be in a pain. No North Africa and no Italian Campaign will cost the allies a ton of much needed experience in both men, and tactics. What can they do? Norway? France 1943? (Neither would go very well for the Allied Powers.) And now they might have to face millions more Germans, free from the Eastern Front. On the flap side, you given the UK a ton of free up men for fighting the Japanese on the other side of the world. Could even save Singapore. (Or last out longer.)

Italy never had a realistic way of keeping Ethiopia long term. It will become their Vietnam as an waste of resources and harming its international status and prestige, and its stability at home.

Libya is what can turn Italy into a power. Once all that oil is found, Italians,with others, will flock to Libya and settle there. (And become majority European/Italian.) Issue here is if/when the fascist government falls apart, the colonies will go for independent. A Libya with a large Italian/ European population can turn into a Rhodesia, and that won't end for anyone.
 
First off: If Italy does not join the War, you just gave one hell of a free hand to the Third Reich. No Balkan Campaign, no North Africa. All that time, supplies, and manpower going to Russia, and not having to save their asses nine times out of ten. There is a strong possibility of Germany winning the War, or it lasting much longer. Germany came close to winning at Stalingrad. With 100,000+ German troops not in North Africa, and the hundreds of aircraft, both fighters & bombers, and tanks...6th Army takes the city before the end of September?

The Allies would also be in a pain. No North Africa and no Italian Campaign will cost the allies a ton of much needed experience in both men, and tactics. What can they do? Norway? France 1943? (Neither would go very well for the Allied Powers.) And now they might have to face millions more Germans, free from the Eastern Front. On the flap side, you given the UK a ton of free up men for fighting the Japanese on the other side of the world. Could even save Singapore. (Or last out longer.)

Italy never had a realistic way of keeping Ethiopia long term. It will become their Vietnam as an waste of resources and harming its international status and prestige, and its stability at home.

Libya is what can turn Italy into a power. Once all that oil is found, Italians,with others, will flock to Libya and settle there. (And become majority European/Italian.) Issue here is if/when the fascist government falls apart, the colonies will go for independent. A Libya with a large Italian/ European population can turn into a Rhodesia, and that won't end for anyone.
Yeah, I can see a German victory at Stalingrad but I wanted to focus on the Italian colonial empire for this discussion. The Allies might try landing in the Balkans (i.e. Yugoslavia) while attempting to convince the Greeks and Italians to join the war in return for financial and material support if they join the Allied Powers - this supposed landing would be from northern Africa or the Middle East.

How different do you think Ethiopia (and the rest of Italy's African colonies) would be if the Italians managed to keep it?
 
Eventual Allied victory with cold war. Mussolini is like France, a tolerated rightest. However Singapore probably doesn't fall with Italy neutral, perhaps colonialism lasts longer. Lots more Lend Lease to Soviets possible. Vichy colonies picked on early. Great for Italy vs OTL, how great depends on how soon Italy liberalizes.
 
Germany came close to winning at Stalingrad. With 100,000+ German troops not in North Africa, and the hundreds of aircraft, both fighters & bombers, and tanks...6th Army takes the city before the end of September?
The Italians sent over 200,000 men to the eastern front. They were very important in the Stalingrad campaign too. Take them out and the German advance to and through Stalingrad slows down a lot sooner
 
Ethiopia and Somalia are going to revolt, and I don't think it is in Italy's best interest to try and hold either.
Holding a port in Eritrea makes some sense.
 
Ethiopia and Somalia are going to revolt, and I don't think it is in Italy's best interest to try and hold either.
Holding a port in Eritrea makes some sense.
Ethiopia is obviously going to revolt as she did OTL whilst under Italian occupation but Italian Somaliland wasn't as resistant, considering the only resistance movement - the Dervish - had been wiped out in 1920 by the British and it was also undergoing development. Depends, Somalia might actually want to remain under Italian control, similarly to Eritrea.
 
Libya is what can turn Italy into a power. Once all that oil is found, Italians,with others, will flock to Libya and settle there. (And become majority European/Italian.) Issue here is if/when the fascist government falls apart, the colonies will go for independent. A Libya with a large Italian/ European population can turn into a Rhodesia, and that won't end for anyone.

Italian Libya would be like French Algeria, if French Algeria had a near-majority or an actual majority of Europeans. It wouldn't be like Rhodesia or South Africa, although the indigenous Libyans would be a major force locally and would likely embark on a terrorist campaign which would tie down large portions of the Italian military until some peace accords were made.

East Africa--Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Italian Somaliland, would be more akin to the Rhodesia situation. They had a lot of Italian settlement, but no hope of a European majority so would likely result in a decolonisation campaign akin to--pick one--Algeria, Portuguese Africa (Angola, Mozambique, etc.), Rhodesia (maybe the "best" result), etc.
 
Ethiopia becomes apart of the Western bloc in the Cold War?
If the Ethiopian resistance was more succesfull and had larger numbers, then these troops might assist in either or multiple fronts. Among these theaters are South East Asia, North Africa and Europe(likely Italy). This increased role in WW2 would likely enhance Ethopias relations with the Western powers.
 
If the Ethiopian resistance was more succesfull and had larger numbers, then these troops might assist in either or multiple fronts. Among these theaters are South East Asia, North Africa and Europe(likely Italy). This increased role in WW2 would likely enhance Ethopias relations with the Western powers.
The Ethiopian Patriots were quite successful IOTL as they ended up controlling the Ethiopian countryside which some have estimated to be around 1/3rd of Ethiopia and I've seen estimates for around 300,000 Ethiopian Patriots at the most. If you have more Italian atrocities akin to Yekatit 12, then more people might join the resistance which was actually becoming more unified than people think.

This thread is about Italy remaining neutral during World War 2 (at least until 1944 or 1945) and the effects on her colonial empire.
 
Italian Libya would be like French Algeria, if French Algeria had a near-majority or an actual majority of Europeans. It wouldn't be like Rhodesia or South Africa, although the indigenous Libyans would be a major force locally and would likely embark on a terrorist campaign which would tie down large portions of the Italian military until some peace accords were made.

East Africa--Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Italian Somaliland, would be more akin to the Rhodesia situation. They had a lot of Italian settlement, but no hope of a European majority so would likely result in a decolonisation campaign akin to--pick one--Algeria, Portuguese Africa (Angola, Mozambique, etc.), Rhodesia (maybe the "best" result), etc.
Didn't Italian settlers in the 30s make up around 12% of the population in Libya? More time might result in a Italian-majority being established in Libya which might become apart of Italy proper in the post-war years and the Italians aren't going to leave when they find oil.

I can see an Italian Ethiopia becoming like a Portuguese Angola where hundreds of thousands of troops are tied down in Ethiopia against the Ethiopian Patriots.
 
The Ethiopian Patriots were quite successful IOTL as they ended up controlling the Ethiopian countryside which some have estimated to be around 1/3rd of Ethiopia and I've seen estimates for around 300,000 Ethiopian Patriots at the most. If you have more Italian atrocities akin to Yekatit 12, then more people might join the resistance which was actually becoming more unified than people think.
Do you know the Italian&co to Ethiopian&co ratio of soldiers aswell as casualties? Maybe Ethiopia could win a Vietnam style war against Italy? Vietnam style war as in Ethiopia will have higher casualties but higher moral, while Italian forces will have low casualties and low moral combined with little support for the war in core Italy.
This thread is about Italy remaining neutral during World War 2 (at least until 1944 or 1945) and the effects on her colonial empire.
Ok, i just posted what to me would the most likely integrate Ethiopia closely with the Western powers.
 
Do you know the Italian&co to Ethiopian&co ratio of soldiers aswell as casualties? Maybe Ethiopia could win a Vietnam style war against Italy? Vietnam style war as in Ethiopia will have higher casualties but higher moral, while Italian forces will have low casualties and low moral combined with little support for the war in core Italy.

Ok, i just posted what to me would the most likely integrate Ethiopia closely with the Western powers.
I'm unaware of Italian casualties during the occupation but I would guess they estimated in the hundreds of thousands and the same may be true for the Patriots, although I've seen estimates of 4,000 Patriots having died overall. Depends, Ethiopia could win through receiving more financial and material support after the end of World War 2 but I'm not sure what post-AOI Ethiopia would be like - it might be able to get back Tigray but I doubt it could retake the Ogaden in peace talks and/or conquest.
 
If the Ethiopian resistance was more succesfull and had larger numbers, then these troops might assist in either or multiple fronts. Among these theaters are South East Asia, North Africa and Europe(likely Italy). This increased role in WW2 would likely enhance Ethopias relations with the Western powers.
This is plausible if the Ethiopian government-in-exile manages to more successfully lobby London for the establishment of the "Free Ethiopian Forces" similarly to the exiled European units that were fighting in the North African Campaign - there were around 6-7,000 refugees across the British Empire so perhaps a total of two or three all-Ethiopian brigades under British command participates. If Haile Selassie is still in exile and does this, then the chance of Ethiopian liberation might seem closer to Ethiopian exiles across the world. This could lead to the United States and/or the Soviet Union providing support to the Ethiopians resisting the Italian occupation in the form of surplus from WW2 which might lead to the Ethiopian Patriots leading Ethiopia to liberation. If the Provisional Government stays intact and moves into the mountains of western Ethiopia, then Ras Imru (and others) can establish a more politically unified resistance earlier.
 
Do you know the Italian&co to Ethiopian&co ratio of soldiers aswell as casualties? Maybe Ethiopia could win a Vietnam style war against Italy? Vietnam style war as in Ethiopia will have higher casualties but higher moral, while Italian forces will have low casualties and low moral combined with little support for the war in core Italy.

The problem in any scenario that in this period see the Ethiopian resistance get free of the italians, it's that while they controlled part of the countryside it was not a good part in term of sustaincement and much were dependent on Anglo-French help...and once the war start and Italy declare his neutrality (and France fall), keeping Benny happy will be priority number one so the Ethiopians will be throw to the wolf and Mussolini had given order to use even chemical weapon against the resistance so all i can see it's further fight and massacre but with an increased worse strategic position for the Ethiopians.

Regarding the resistance loss (1936-41): 75.OOO KIA, 25000 sentenced to death and 35.000 died in the concentration camp...this are the official data from the Nagus; Italy number for the Arbegnuoc loss are 77.000 death and 2.900 prisoner.

Regarding the italian loss i don't have the numbers, but hunders of thousands of men it's so irrealistic to be ridicolous; at the beginning of 1938 the total of the casualities (KIA and WIA) was 12600 of them around 3000 italians
 
The problem in any scenario that in this period see the Ethiopian resistance get free of the italians, it's that while they controlled part of the countryside it was not a good part in term of sustaincement and much were dependent on Anglo-French help...and once the war start and Italy declare his neutrality (and France fall), keeping Benny happy will be priority number one so the Ethiopians will be throw to the wolf and Mussolini had given order to use even chemical weapon against the resistance so all i can see it's further fight and massacre but with an increased worse strategic position for the Ethiopians.

Regarding the resistance loss (1936-41): 75.OOO KIA, 25000 sentenced to death and 35.000 died in the concentration camp...this are the official data from the Nagus; Italy number for the Arbegnuoc loss are 77.000 death and 2.900 prisoner.

Regarding the italian loss i don't have the numbers, but hunders of thousands of men it's so irrealistic to be ridicolous; at the beginning of 1938 the total of the casualities (KIA and WIA) was 12600 of them around 3000 italians
Where'd you get your sources, I'd like to know. Also, weren't there around 300,000 Italian occupational troops?
 
Where'd you get your sources, I'd like to know. Also, weren't there around 300,000 Italian occupational troops?

Sure...at the eve if the war because there were also the need to protect Italian East Africa from the allies and 250.000 were colonial troops (Ascari, Libyans, Somalis) for sources: Matteo Dominioni, Lo sfascio dell'impero. Gli italiani in Etiopia 1936-1941 from the italian Wiki
 
First I wonder how much the attempt to overtake Ethiopia was Mussolini and not an evolution of Italian ambitions in the Horn of Africa? Likewise, how much do we need the Fascists to conquer Libya and settle it?

I ask because it underscores the commitment of Italians rather than just the Fascists, something that plays out long term. A neutral Italy should be pursuing settlement and I think Libya is rather low on the list given it is a desert, once the better coastal zone is carved up for farms the average Italian might be enticed to go to Eritrea and Somaliland, later Ethiopia if it is pacified. For me any serious colonizing is gaining steam post-war (or generally the 1950s), we get air conditioning, oil and perhaps enough population growth and economic stagnation to make emigration look good. Here Italy should be doing better so taking pressure off the emigration engine.

And I think Italy's colonial gains really need British blessing, Italy moved on Ethiopia because the British are distracted, they can only keep it if Britain stops supplying the Ethiopians or trades them for Italian assistance. For me one needs to unpack events developing with German aggression to really put things into a framework. But long term I agree that Ethiopia is the bridge too far, likely unravels the Italian position in the Horn and might cost them Libya too. Poof, there goes the later boon that should be Libya. (Assuming you can swallow the pushing off of the natives and flooding them with settlers, sadly much easier to argue occurs in such an altered post-war world).
 
A couple quick notes before I'm out the door. Italian neutrality is an immense boon for the Allies. Empire shipping now goes through the Med, unhindered, vice either fighting its way through or having to go around Africa. This alone is a tremendous boost for the Allies. I believe it highly likely the UK will no longer have any sort of economic embargo on Italy. The RN can now sufficiently reinforce the forces in Singapore that the IJN is going to have to rethink its options. While some ships will remain in the Med, it will be far fewer. Bismarck and other raiders will have the undivided attention of more of the RN, with the results we all know will occur. As to less experience from fighting in NA, that cuts both ways, and the gains in shipping more than make up for that. Considering how upset Mussolini was with Hitler over the abrogation of the Anti-Comintern pact and launching WWII three years earlier than he'd been promised, not to mention Austria, it is not a stretch to attain Italian neutrality. It also isn't beyond the realm of possibility that at some point, Allied sweet talking and bribes might convince Mussolini to enter the war on the Allied side. My guess is that Italy keeps just enough troops in its African colonies to keep the lid on and puts the majority of its forces along their Northern border. At the same time, if the UK and US will give some industrial/economic aid to Italy, it gives a better ability for them to keep Germany out. I am not one of those who holds the opinion that the Italian Military were hopelessly incompetent. That means Germany will need to keep at least some forces on the southern border, and no Italian troops in Russia means they will need more German troops. I've not had time to think about how Italian neutrality affects Eastern European nations and their actions.
To figure out how Ethiopia fares ITTL, we need to look at other Italian colonies. What were they like before the Italians, and how developed were they after? Were they in some ways better off than before? I honestly don't know the answers to those questions. If the populace can be convinced there are benefits to having the Italians, and this can be done in Ethiopia, the population may be more amenable to coming to an accommodation with the Italian occupiers. It instantly or completely stop unrest, but it might be the beginning of some form of peace.
 
First I wonder how much the attempt to overtake Ethiopia was Mussolini and not an evolution of Italian ambitions in the Horn of Africa? Likewise, how much do we need the Fascists to conquer Libya and settle it?

I ask because it underscores the commitment of Italians rather than just the Fascists, something that plays out long term. A neutral Italy should be pursuing settlement and I think Libya is rather low on the list given it is a desert, once the better coastal zone is carved up for farms the average Italian might be enticed to go to Eritrea and Somaliland, later Ethiopia if it is pacified. For me any serious colonizing is gaining steam post-war (or generally the 1950s), we get air conditioning, oil and perhaps enough population growth and economic stagnation to make emigration look good. Here Italy should be doing better so taking pressure off the emigration engine.

And I think Italy's colonial gains really need British blessing, Italy moved on Ethiopia because the British are distracted, they can only keep it if Britain stops supplying the Ethiopians or trades them for Italian assistance. For me one needs to unpack events developing with German aggression to really put things into a framework. But long term I agree that Ethiopia is the bridge too far, likely unravels the Italian position in the Horn and might cost them Libya too. Poof, there goes the later boon that should be Libya. (Assuming you can swallow the pushing off of the natives and flooding them with settlers, sadly much easier to argue occurs in such an altered post-war world).
I'm pretty sure it was just Mussolini as I doubt most Italians even cared about Ethiopia prior to 1935. I'm not completely sure but Italy might have come after Ethiopia if the First World War hadn't happened or if they had remained neutral during World War 1 but I kinda doubt that as well.

Italian Eritrea was considered one of, if not the most developed European colony in Africa whose growing Italian community made up roughly 12-14% of the entire Eritrean population by the 30s-40s if Italy had been given enough time to develop. Italian settlement in Eritrea (and maybe Somaliland) is going to be popular whereas not many people are going to want to go to Ethiopia as the continued insurgency and lack of resources didn't make it appealing but you might see a significant Italian minority if the Italians somehow managed to hold onto it until the late 40s or 50s. I seriously doubt the Italians are going to be able to completely pacify Ethiopia but if it can curb the resistance to an acceptable level, the Italians might be able to bring in more settlers and develop Ethiopia's flourishing urban centers.

Yeah, the Allies are going to do anything to secure Italian neutrality during the Second World War which may include British or French Somaliland and French Tunisia being ceded to Italian control in return for no Axis Italy or a neutral Italy. The Ethiopian population was around 16-17 million and not around what, 780,000 Libyan Arabs - the Italians will not be able to push off the natives without some significant action that will inevitably lead to a boost in the numbers and popularity of the Ethiopian Patriots.
 
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