WI: Italian Allies win in the Social War?

During the Social War (91-88BC), tensions over the matter of citizenship for Italians (and to an extent, suffrage) between Rome and the tribes of Italia rose to a civil war that was devastating for Rome. During this war, Italian allies, divided into two factions (Marsic (north) and Samnite (south)) faced off against Rome and the Latins. Although defeating the Italians, Rome granted citizenship to the tribes of Italia to prevent further violence.

However, it is clear that the Allies at its peak wanted more than just citizenship. The establishment of a new capital at Confinium (renamed 'Italica'), the establishment of a new senate modelled off the Roman senate, and the establishment of a new currency featuring iconography suggesting the Italians wanted the Roman's to be completely slaughtered shows us that the Italian leaders wished for full independence from the Roman Republic.

In OTL, this war had no clear-cut victor. What if Rome had lost and faced the same fate as Carthage, with a new, federation of tribes of Italy replacing it basing their model of government off the Roman model but with more consideration towards equal representation of tribes? What would become of the provinces of Rome?
 
Rome was losing against the Italians at first, that’s why she eventually granted citizenship to those of the Italians who were willing to take it. For Rome to lose the war, it’d be necessary for her to be too stubborn for her own sake, thereafter either the war is prolonged indefinitely, allowing Mithridates to carve himself an empire in Eastern Mediterranean, or Rome gets destroyed, in which case Italy would become a huge federation of states, while all surviving Roman magistrates would escape in the provinces and attempt to revert the situation from there, perhaps by doing the very same thing they did IOTL, grant citizenship to those who would take it.
 
During the Social War (91-88BC), tensions over the matter of citizenship for Italians (and to an extent, suffrage) between Rome and the tribes of Italia rose to a civil war that was devastating for Rome. During this war, Italian allies, divided into two factions (Marsic (north) and Samnite (south)) faced off against Rome and the Latins. Although defeating the Italians, Rome granted citizenship to the tribes of Italia to prevent further violence.

However, it is clear that the Allies at its peak wanted more than just citizenship. The establishment of a new capital at Confinium (renamed 'Italica'), the establishment of a new senate modelled off the Roman senate, and the establishment of a new currency featuring iconography suggesting the Italians wanted the Roman's to be completely slaughtered shows us that the Italian leaders wished for full independence from the Roman Republic.

In OTL, this war had no clear-cut victor. What if Rome had lost and faced the same fate as Carthage, with a new, federation of tribes of Italy replacing it basing their model of government off the Roman model but with more consideration towards equal representation of tribes? What would become of the provinces of Rome?
Could this Italica nation have been socially more progressive than Roman society ?
 
It’d have been lucky to survive its first decade of existence without getting fractured. What do you mean by socially more progressive?
A federation that, on principle, gave full citizenship to all people it conquered would be unstable but technically more progressive because everyone would have equal voting rights provided you could actually make it to Italica (in theory, of course).

I don’t think there’s anyway Italia could expend the way Rome did. I doubt it could even hold provinces outside of Italy.

Hypothetically, if Rome’s central province was to be lost, what would happen to places such as Hispania, Africa, Macedonia etc which were all under Roman control? Would it split like the Alexandrian Empire?
 
A federation that, on principle, gave full citizenship to all people it conquered would be unstable but technically more progressive because everyone would have equal voting rights provided you could actually make it to Italica (in theory, of course).

I don’t think there’s anyway Italia could expend the way Rome did. I doubt it could even hold provinces outside of Italy.

Hypothetically, if Rome’s central province was to be lost, what would happen to places such as Hispania, Africa, Macedonia etc which were all under Roman control? Would it split like the Alexandrian Empire?

The Roman Republic, unlike the the Empire of Alexander, was butressed by an established center and by an ethos devoted to patriotism. Sertorius, an exiled Roman magistrate, successfully detached Spain from central authority, however never once he had planned to make it his personal potentate, it was always supposed to be a power base for his recapture of Rome from the Sullans. I think the same would have happened in this ATL’s scenario. Roman Senators who successfully escaped, possibly amongst them competent commanders as Marius, Sulla, Pompeius Strabo, Metellus Pius and Sertorius himself, would have taken refuge in the provinces and attempted to lead Rome’s reconquest from there. Whether they would succeed or not is pure speculation, however I have big doubts on the survival of a federation of notoriously fickle and divided Italian states.
 
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