How far north would it stretch? Maybe it initially only holds Sicily and Sardinia, then the mafia in southern Italy makes it head across the straits and invade a certain area as a "defensive operation"?
WI: Italian 1948 general election led to a Communist victory?
- Thread starter Dan1988
- Start date
How far north would it stretch? Maybe it initially only holds Sicily and Sardinia, then the mafia in southern Italy makes it head across the straits and invade a certain area as a "defensive operation"?
I'm back !
So, I was reading about the Peace Treaty: basically, we were royally screwed until Nenni, Sforza and De Gasperi basically achieved a diplomatic miracle and prevented South Tyrol annexation to Austria.
Had they failed, the De Gasperi government probably wouldn't have survived the political backlash. This would also cause massive outrage in the Christian Democratic religious base, heavily leaning towards pacifism, and in former fascists: some of them could even move towards a "national bolshevik" position.
So, we can have :
1) Unsuccesful "battle" for Bolzano
2) Soviet Union supports Italian claim to former colonies (it did, OTL)
3) Socialists and Communists don't try to unify, preventing the socialdemocratic split apart for the small reformist wing, which amounted for less than 10% of the PSIUP.
4) In 1948 elections, the Christian Democracy, identified with servilism to Americans despite De Gasperi's attempts, is defeated by PCI-PSIUP alliance, mostly due to a strong nationalistic outburst which benefits both the far left and the far right.
5) American and French troops occupy Sardinia, Sicily, Imperia and Val D'Aosta. Imperia is annexed to France, Sardinia-Sicily and Val D'Aosta are proclaimed independent republics.
I don't think that, in such a scenery, we would see Umberto II as the King of the revived Kingdom of the Two Sicilies, he was too much a patriot for such a thing. However, they could pull a Bourbon pretendant for Sicily, and keep Sardinia as a republic (with a fair chance of a communist revolutionary attempt later on), or make two banana republics of them. Val D'Aosta would be French-aligned, but basically a liberaldemocratic republic.
Things in Italy would then be ... interesting !
Even without Plan Marshall, I think we can get some help from UNRRA, like Yugoslavia: Soviet Union, to help Togliatti, could also lift its requests for war compensation.
Quite surely, the new left government would create a national myth centered on Mazzini and Garibaldi as the forefathers of Turati and Gramsci.
As for nationalization, I think that the government plan would look much like to the original center-left program in the 1960s : agrarian reform, workers' councils, nationalization of railroads, electricity, water, school and family law reforms. Decentralization is a tricky question, OTL the left was a strong proponent, to limit Christian Democracy's power, TTL we have to see.
So, I was reading about the Peace Treaty: basically, we were royally screwed until Nenni, Sforza and De Gasperi basically achieved a diplomatic miracle and prevented South Tyrol annexation to Austria.
Had they failed, the De Gasperi government probably wouldn't have survived the political backlash. This would also cause massive outrage in the Christian Democratic religious base, heavily leaning towards pacifism, and in former fascists: some of them could even move towards a "national bolshevik" position.
So, we can have :
1) Unsuccesful "battle" for Bolzano
2) Soviet Union supports Italian claim to former colonies (it did, OTL)
3) Socialists and Communists don't try to unify, preventing the socialdemocratic split apart for the small reformist wing, which amounted for less than 10% of the PSIUP.
4) In 1948 elections, the Christian Democracy, identified with servilism to Americans despite De Gasperi's attempts, is defeated by PCI-PSIUP alliance, mostly due to a strong nationalistic outburst which benefits both the far left and the far right.
5) American and French troops occupy Sardinia, Sicily, Imperia and Val D'Aosta. Imperia is annexed to France, Sardinia-Sicily and Val D'Aosta are proclaimed independent republics.
I don't think that, in such a scenery, we would see Umberto II as the King of the revived Kingdom of the Two Sicilies, he was too much a patriot for such a thing. However, they could pull a Bourbon pretendant for Sicily, and keep Sardinia as a republic (with a fair chance of a communist revolutionary attempt later on), or make two banana republics of them. Val D'Aosta would be French-aligned, but basically a liberaldemocratic republic.
Things in Italy would then be ... interesting !
Even without Plan Marshall, I think we can get some help from UNRRA, like Yugoslavia: Soviet Union, to help Togliatti, could also lift its requests for war compensation.Quite surely, the new left government would create a national myth centered on Mazzini and Garibaldi as the forefathers of Turati and Gramsci.
As for nationalization, I think that the government plan would look much like to the original center-left program in the 1960s : agrarian reform, workers' councils, nationalization of railroads, electricity, water, school and family law reforms. Decentralization is a tricky question, OTL the left was a strong proponent, to limit Christian Democracy's power, TTL we have to see.
Why are we assuming Italy would be broken up if the Communists won the election?
Were there plans in place to actually DO this?
Were there plans in place to actually DO this?
EEC was born without Italian active involvement, while in EDC we had a definite leading role since the beginning. I think we would have seen a Euoropean Economic Area, even without Italy: times were ripe.
There were contingency plans for occupying Sicily and Sardinia, Val D'Aosta was put in just for fun
, while Imperia was effectively occupied by France and Tyrol risked Austrian annexation.IF the West act's like this (occupying Sicily, Sardinia, and even Aosta), there would be no third way - Italy would likely take a hard line in the cold war.
While an _elected_ Communist government without a foreign aggression might be weak, and tries to avoid confrontation, including a purge of the army, a foreign aggression against part of the national territory would remove this reluctance - this comes close to a declaration of war, all patriots will have to rally behind the flag, workers militias will have to be formed and mobilized to defend 'la patria degli operai' against counter-revolution and foreign intervention. So we should expect a fast purge of army and bureaucracy, and all parties that want to stay in business will rush to defend "national unity".
This sunds good because Vatican would be pissed...
How about relations between Italy and San Marino?
How about relations between Italy and San Marino?