WI: Isreal looses the Six Day War

From what i know the 6 day war was the decider for the young Isreali state, and some even claim that it was a miricle that the country even survuved the war let alone win it.

So what happens if the Arabs overwhelmed the Isrealis on all fronts and the last ditch defences fell leaving the holy land open

and more importantly what do the jews do now?
 

Kaptin Kurk

Banned
I'm not so sure that Johnson would have allowed Israel to loose the Six Day war, at least not catastrophically. So, WWIII at worst? Armistice with no territorial changes at best in a "lost" scenario.
 

girld22

Banned
Hi, As captin Kurk put it the us would not have allowed that but maybe it would have resulted in a cesefire with strong position for the arabs
 
Wait, we are talking of Six Day War, not Yom Kippur War?

I do not think it was possible for Israel to lose the Six Day War. The worst they could get was a stalemate. They preempted the Arab attack and hit them while they were forming up. If there was any chance to lose, Israelis would have stroke earlier and defeated the Arabs. The entire point of the offensive was to win.
 
It's actually very difficult to make Israel lose. Even if the Arabs had attacked at once, US and British intelligence predicted an Israeli victory in the end. Israel's military superiority was by then an established fact.

Aside from that, Israel had already built few crude nuclear bombs, and if the Arabs were on the verge of overrunning the country, they would have been used, though there is a possibility that the Soviets would have responded by nuking Israel.

Assuming that the Arabs manage to bypass this, and it is still a possibility that they would have, especially if the Soviets had stepped in, the United States would likely have prevented the destruction of Israel. And the Soviets would likely not step in for this reason.

Assuming, though, that the US does nothing and the Soviets step in, which was a possibility, Arab forces would have taken massive casualties, which would only fuel the rage of Arab soldiers further. And they were already inflamed with antisemitic propaganda disseminated by their governments. There would have been mass atrocities committed against the Jewish population, and a large percentage of Israel's civilian population would die, from chemical attacks and mass bombing raids on Israeli cities, defending their kibbutzim, and massacres committed by the invaders. This would culminate in a mass ethnic cleansing of the survivors, the executions of the Israeli leadership, and the division of Israel between the Arab states.

World Jewry is horrified and demoralized. Basically, in just 20 years, the Jewish people have gone through two mass tragedies. Jews would still be reeling from the tragedy.

Aside from that, no Israel in today's world means eventually almost no Jews. Today, Jews everywhere except Israel are intermarrying and assimilating at a rapid rate. The diaspora is declining as old Jews die and not enough are born to take their place, while Israel's Jewish population is rising. There would be only around 7-9 million Jews in the world today and dropping.
 
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Israel had a small number of atomic bombs in 1967 (between two and ten, I believe). If some combination of circumstances had resulted in the military destruction of Israel, there would have been a lot of Arabs going with them.
 
Personally I think the best resolution would be pretty much as our timeline except for Jordan staying out of things and retaining ownership of East Jerusalem and the West Bank. End result would be Israel secure with the Sinai and Golan Heights to act as defensive buffer zones and the heavyweight backing of the US who have very publicly nailed their colours to the Israeli mast as it were. How to keep Jordan neutral due to local public opinion is the real poser though. One idea is King Hussein holds off on joining in a little longer so the disasters that were befalling the Egyptians become public knowledge in the meantime or they simply come out earlier. This gives him an excuse to point at of why join a losing side and risk East Jerusalem with the Al-Aqsa Mosque or the West Bank, although might see a Black September moved forward a say a year earlier. Come the rematch in 1973 and five years later when Egypt signs the Camp David Accords Jordan signs as well or in a separate treaty to settle the borders and normalise relations. That just leaves Syria and the Golan Heights plus the internal Jordanian fun outstanding.

On the original question as others have already said it would be very difficult to engineer an Israeli loss. If they did have a couple basic nuclear weapons then Amman, Damascus and Cairo are going up in flames under the Samson Option if it looks like the Israelis are going to be completely overrun. With a second massive loss of Israeli life in a relatively short period do we possibly see another state or partially self-governing region set up elsewhere for the Jews, or would the use of nuclear weapons blunt world sympathy too much?
 
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On the original question as others have already said it would be very difficult to engineer an Israeli loss. If they did have a couple basic nuclear weapons then Amman, Damascus and Cairo are going up in flames under the Samson Option if it looks like the Israelis are going to be completely overrun. With a second massive loss of Israeli life in a relatively short period do we possibly see another state or partially self-governing region set up elsewhere for the Jews, or would the use of nuclear weapons blunt world sympathy too much?

This. If Israel does a Samson with their nukes it guarantees that there will never again be either a Jewish state or any US support for anysuch.
 
Israel losing a war (any war)=no more Israel. There would be massive atrocities, and even if the actual killings and rapes were "minimal" you can expect that the vast majority of the Jews will be expelled with the clothes on their backs & nothing more. You might see Jews who can prove they are descended from Jews who lived in Palestine prior to 1914 allowed to stay (as very second class citizens and certainly with most valuable property etc expropriated). Of course expect to see senior military officers, politicians (perhaps any members of the Knesset) etc tried as "war criminals". The Israelis simply won't let that happen.

IMHO the Russians would not nuke Israel, even if Israel does hit a few Arab capitals with 20-30kt instant sunshine. That would require the USA basically giving them the green light, which the USA simply cannot afford to do - the precedent would not be good. The USA might be very pissed, but the Israelis can deal with that - if the Arabs win all the good will in the world will be useless.

Once the Arabs failed to squash Israel in 1948, they had little chance of doing so thereafter. The Arab militaries have not been/are not up to the task for a variety of reasons having nothing to do with the innate "intelligence" of the Arab soldier but rather education, mechanical training, the fact that Arab armies are very political and not competence led etc.
 

Kongzilla

Banned
I think many of the Israelies would fight to the death after the first rumors of Attrocitiess start happeining. End up seeing a battle of Berlin being played out in the Jewish capital with Many people fighting until the end.
 
The Arabs were hobbled long before the first bullet was fired in the Six Day War by the Soviet Union who deliberately withheld technology from the Arab armies precisely because they knew that if Israel was defeated it could trigger a war with the United States or, at the very least, change the balance of power to an extent that wouldn't serve Soviet interests. If the Soviets had provided the same degree of tchnological support to the Arab countries that they were providing to North Vietnam the outcome of the Six Day War would've been very different.

The Arabs could've won the Six Day War but it is unlikely they would've been allowed by the Soviet Union or the United States to wipe Israel off the map because it didn't serve their geopolitical interests to do so. Rather, they would've bullied the Arabs into accepting a ceasefire agreement that would've preserved the State of Israel but not necessarily in the form that it takes today.
 
If the Soviets had provided the same degree of tchnological support to the Arab countries that they were providing to North Vietnam the outcome of the Six Day War would've been very different.

Seeing how Mossad penetrated the Arab military and civilian authority in a run up to war, it is likely that Israel would preempt the Arab attack. If the equipment that would make Arab victory likely started arriving earlier, Israel would attack earlier. And win.
 
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