WI: Israel Publicly Tests Nuclear Weapons

kernals12

Banned
It's a pretty open secret that the Israelis have a nuclear arsenal but the government has never publicly revealed the existance of it let alone the size or publicly done any tests. It seems to me like if they had been public about their nuclear weapons, it would be better for everyone.
A. It would've made Israel less of a pariah by forcing them to follow international conventions on nuclear weapons
B. It would've amplified the deterrent effects
 

The Avenger

Banned
You're probably going to need an approving US for Israel to do this.

Also, an Israel that is open about having nukes might form a common front with India and Pakistan on this issue since they would all oppose restricting the nuclear club to the five permanent members of the UN Security Council.
 

redeclipse

Banned
One of the PMs admitted it in a slip in public already I think. The Vela Incident in the Southern Hemisphere is widely suspected to be a joint Israeli-South African nuclear test.
 
You're probably going to need an approving US for Israel to do this.

Also, an Israel that is open about having nukes might form a common front with India and Pakistan on this issue since they would all oppose restricting the nuclear club to the five permanent members of the UN Security Council.

Israel developed nukes before it was aligned with the US
 
As long as Israel does not sign the NPT, it's legally entitled to possess nuclear weapons under international law. It would be a huge annoyance to the West, but there's no realistic chance of military intervention or sanctions being applied. I think the US would come to tolerate it. The main concern would be a preventing nuclear arms race in the region.

Mordechai Vanunu provided pretty convincing evidence, and it's pretty much an open secret, but for the West to openly tolerate Israel possessing nuclear weapons while not tolerating the same of Arab countries would be seen as hypocrisy, even if the Arab countries did sign the NPT. It's actually possible that the US has tolerated the chemical weapon stockpiles of Egypt and Syria (for the latter until the Syrian government began using chemical weapons on it's own people) as a counterweight to Israel's nuclear capability. Maybe they'd be more open about their chemical weapons in this scenario.
 
A pro to Israel being coy is that, at least in the 70s-2000s, it gave a fig leaf for the Arab states to not seriously pursue nuclear weapons. An Israel that publicly possesses nuclear weapons would mean an Arab world whose populations press for a nuclear option of their own.

Syria, Egypt and Iraq all seriously pursuing nuclear weapons means an even more tense middle East. It's unlikely any state gets far enough for a significant change, but Israel will be launching strikes against reactors will strain relations even further as well as give the Arab states a good negotiation tool by demanding Israel give up their program for any peace and recognition platform to be considered
 

The Avenger

Banned
A pro to Israel being coy is that, at least in the 70s-2000s, it gave a fig leaf for the Arab states to not seriously pursue nuclear weapons. An Israel that publicly possesses nuclear weapons would mean an Arab world whose populations press for a nuclear option of their own.

Syria, Egypt and Iraq all seriously pursuing nuclear weapons means an even more tense middle East. It's unlikely any state gets far enough for a significant change, but Israel will be launching strikes against reactors will strain relations even further as well as give the Arab states a good negotiation tool by demanding Israel give up their program for any peace and recognition platform to be considered
I wouldn't say that nuclear weapons building wasn't pursued in the Arab world in our TL, though--after all, there were the Iraqi, Libyan, and Syrian nuclear weapons programs. In fact, the first two achieved very significant success--albeit with the help of A.Q. Khan and his network in Libya's case.

Also, there is the Iranian nuclear program in our TL, though it's unclear if Iran has continued to seek nuclear weapons after 2003.
 
So, when did the US become Israel's patron? In 1967 or sometime later on?

The US took France's place gradually in the late 60s/early 70s. France cut arms sales to Israel, and at the same time the US supplied F-4 Phantoms to Israel. In 1973, the US airlifted arms to Israel during the Yom Kippur War, and regular military aid began in 1974.
 

The Avenger

Banned
The US took France's place gradually in the late 60s/early 70s. France cut arms sales to Israel, and at the same time the US supplied F-4 Phantoms to Israel. In 1973, the US airlifted arms to Israel during the Yom Kippur War, and regular military aid began in 1974.
Understood.

Also, AFAIK, Israel acquired nukes in either 1966 or 1967--thus, slightly before all of this took place.
 

kernals12

Banned
If the Israelis had developed nukes earlier, it might deter the Syrians and Egyptians from attacking. The Golan Heights stay with Syria, the Egyptians keep the Gaza strip, the Jordanians keep the West Bank, and the Palestinian issue is mostly fixed.
 
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The US was siding up to Israel at the time, but it wasn't the full-blown alliance it is today. France was Israel's main patron until after the Six-Day War.

Well...actually France cut off Israel a little before the Six Day War, while the US picked 'em up shortly after. Israel was without a major defense partner for the event. Some people think that this is why they were so jumpy.
 
Well...actually France cut off Israel a little before the Six Day War, while the US picked 'em up shortly after. Israel was without a major defense partner for the event. Some people think that this is why they were so jumpy.

Officially it didn't truly close the book until the IDF commando raid on Beirut airport in 1968, although the signs had been there beforehand. And nit to mention how the Cherbourg boats operation REALLY pissed the French off...
 

The Avenger

Banned
If the Israelis had developed nukes earlier, it might deter the Syrians and Egyptians from attacking. The Golan Heights stay with Syria, the Egyptians keep the Gaza strip, the Jordanians keep the West Bank, and the Palestinian issue is mostly fixed.
Didn't Israel attack first in 1967, though?
 
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