WI: Israel kills Saddam Hussein.

Vladimir

Banned
Operation Bramble Bush was a not-well-known plan by Israel to kill Saddam Hussein in 1992. It was conceived as payback for Iraq's missile attacks on Israel during the Gulf War. The United States had begged Israel not to respond for fear of Arab coalition partners quitting rather than work with Israel, so Israel had to rely on largely ineffective American and Dutch Patriot missile defense batteries throughout the war.

Deep-cover Mossad agents in Iraq found out that Saddam was planning to visit a mistress living near Tikrit. Then, he would visit a nearby airbase close by before flying home. Within the estimated fifteen minutes between leaving the woman's home and reaching the airbase, Saddam would be killed by waiting Sayeret Matkal commandos and Mossad Kidon assassins, inserted into Iraq by two C-130s flying below radar. The operation was called off due to a high risk of failure and a training accident that killed five soldiers.

What would have happened had the operation been successful? No Iraq War? Sanctions Lifted? Or a new Baathist tyrant? Any other ideas?
 
Operation Bramble Bush was a not-well-known plan by Israel to kill Saddam Hussein in 1992. It was conceived as payback for Iraq's missile attacks on Israel during the Gulf War. The United States had begged Israel not to respond for fear of Arab coalition partners quitting rather than work with Israel, so Israel had to rely on largely ineffective American and Dutch Patriot missile defense batteries throughout the war.

Deep-cover Mossad agents in Iraq found out that Saddam was planning to visit a mistress living near Tikrit. Then, he would visit a nearby airbase close by before flying home. Within the estimated fifteen minutes between leaving the woman's home and reaching the airbase, Saddam would be killed by waiting Sayeret Matkal commandos and Mossad Kidon assassins, inserted into Iraq by two C-130s flying below radar. The operation was called off due to a high risk of failure and a training accident that killed five soldiers.

What would have happened had the operation been successful? No Iraq War? Sanctions Lifted? Or a new Baathist tyrant? Any other ideas?

Israel gets blamed, no matter what. Likely, some Scuds end up hitting Israeli cities again, and there amy be revolts in the Palestinian territories, but no one is in any shape for broader escalation. As for Iraq, it's likely that the Kurdish and Shi'a uprisings that were recently crushed will flare up again. In Iraqi politics, its likely that a triumvirate of Izzat ad-Douri, Khallariah Talfah and Hussein al-Majid will take power.
 
Operation Bramble Bush was a not-well-known plan by Israel to kill Saddam Hussein in 1992. It was conceived as payback for Iraq's missile attacks on Israel during the Gulf War. The United States had begged Israel not to respond for fear of Arab coalition partners quitting rather than work with Israel, so Israel had to rely on largely ineffective American and Dutch Patriot missile defense batteries throughout the war.

Deep-cover Mossad agents in Iraq found out that Saddam was planning to visit a mistress living near Tikrit. Then, he would visit a nearby airbase close by before flying home. Within the estimated fifteen minutes between leaving the woman's home and reaching the airbase, Saddam would be killed by waiting Sayeret Matkal commandos and Mossad Kidon assassins, inserted into Iraq by two C-130s flying below radar. The operation was called off due to a high risk of failure and a training accident that killed five soldiers.

What would have happened had the operation been successful? No Iraq War? Sanctions Lifted? Or a new Baathist tyrant? Any other ideas?
Heh. I was sure that it didn't matter that Sadam wasn't ousted in Gulf War I, because the Israelis would get him in a year or two.

Boy was I wrong.

Sure, if Sadam was assassinated, Israel would be blamed by many - but they could likely set it up so no one could prove it. Use Iranian equipment, say.
 

gridlocked

Banned
Operation Bramble Bush was a not-well-known plan by Israel to kill Saddam Hussein in 1992. It was conceived as payback for Iraq's missile attacks on Israel during the Gulf War. The United States had begged Israel not to respond for fear of Arab coalition partners quitting rather than work with Israel, so Israel had to rely on largely ineffective American and Dutch Patriot missile defense batteries throughout the war.

Deep-cover Mossad agents in Iraq found out that Saddam was planning to visit a mistress living near Tikrit. Then, he would visit a nearby airbase close by before flying home. Within the estimated fifteen minutes between leaving the woman's home and reaching the airbase, Saddam would be killed by waiting Sayeret Matkal commandos and Mossad Kidon assassins, inserted into Iraq by two C-130s flying below radar. The operation was called off due to a high risk of failure and a training accident that killed five soldiers.

What would have happened had the operation been successful? No Iraq War? Sanctions Lifted? Or a new Baathist tyrant? Any other ideas?


I did not know this. Without Saddam Hussein, by the late 90s the US would no longer be expending political capital for sanctions so they would be de facto gone. I assume another Sunni Dictator (likely Baathist) eventually rises to the top. Since it is unlikely that he would be as flamboyant or brutal as Saddam, the world largely forgets about Iraq.

No Gulf War II. Bush went in because he felt Saddam being in power and defying the UN, both made him low hanging fruit (everybody hated him) and unfinished business from Gulf War I. That was at least as important as the WMD claim.
 
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